AFL Betting Tips Round 6: Our Best Bets For This Week’s Games

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AFL Betting Tips Round 6: Our Best Bets For This Week’s Games
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AFL Round 6 Predictions:

With just four points separating first from ninth and another four-point gap between 10th and 18th, the 2023 AFL season is off to a fascinating start and betting sites have their odds at the ready. 

After the festivities of the Easter weekend and a successful inaugural ‘Gather Round’, the league is spoiling fans with five consecutive days of footy capped off with the 28th ANZAC Day meeting between Collingwood and Essendon. 

That’s already in itself a mouth-watering top four clash - the first time since 2000 they’ve both been placed that high heading into the ANZAC Day round - so let’s see what AFL best bets are on offer for Round 6!

Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs, Friday, 8:10pm (AEST)

Both the Fremantle Dockers (W2 L3) and the Western Bulldogs (W2 L3) have had a mixed start to their seasons so far and are themselves seeking to break even when opening Round 6 at Perth’s Optus Stadium.

The home side have won three of their last four matches as well as sustaining a cruel one-point loss to North Melbourne in Round 2. 

That included a clutch elimination final victory last year in which they overcame a 41-point second quarter deficit courtesy of goals in each of the following three quarters from Michael Walters and two in one from now-Bulldog Rory Lobb. 

Fremantle have continued to start poorly, losing the opening quarter of each of their last nine matches since meeting the Bulldogs in Melbourne last August.

The Bulldogs have now lost four of their last five interstate games after falling to Port Adelaide in their Gather Round contest and have not fared much better at Optus Stadium across its brief history.

They’ve lost six of their nine matches against all opposition including the 2021 Grand Final. But having already collected two scalps as outsiders (Richmond and Brisbane) this year, Luke Beveridge’s side certainly cannot be ruled out. 

Given the inconsistency of both sides and the weakness within their forward 50s, it could instead be the total points market that is worth attacking on AFL betting sites

The Bulldogs and the Dockers are the third and ninth lowest scoring sides respectively this season, with the Dogs’ accuracy of just 45% in front of goal letting them down.

But both sides have also done enough defensively to concede fewer points than clubs such as Adelaide, Port Adelaide and Brisbane, so a low-scoring encounter would not surprise.

Tip: Under 165.5 Total Points - 1.9 With BlueBet

Tip: Western Bulldogs To Win 1st Quarter - 1.95 With Ladbrokes

GWS Giants vs Brisbane Lions, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)

COVID-19 had not been discovered the last time the GWS Giants (W2 L3) won in the national capital and Unibet are expecting them to have another tough time after they had to grind and slog to get the better of last-placed Hawthorn in Adelaide last week. 

The race to offer Harry Himmelberg his next contract is on after two match-winning feats in the dying moments to take the four points and keep the eight within touching distance.

The end result doesn’t excuse the fact they struggled against an opposition with a percentage of just 60 going into that fixture and have now failed to cover the pre-match line four out of five times this year. 

Australia betting sites are anticipating the Giants will lose an eighth consecutive game at Canberra’s Manuka Oval after four failed attempts in 2022, while perhaps most alarmingly they have not cleared 70+ points in any of those seven outings. 

Curiously, the quarter-time leader has gone on to lose every GWS game in 2023, as well as in four of five involving the Brisbane Lions (W3 L2)! 

Starting well appears to be a curse in that aspect, and don’t forget that Brisbane came close to losing at home to Melbourne in the infamous ‘Gabba blackout’ match after a six goal to two opening term. 

The Lions were sluggish in attack against North Melbourne but eventually found their rhythm and were able to dominate possession to record five or more goals in every quarter. 

There’s no value to be had in the head-to-head (H2H) markets with Brisbane understandably skinny, though the -21.5 line could be worth attacking if you believe the Giants are not any closer to the Lions than they were when losing to them by 40 points. 

Based on a 10-game sample size, it instead appears smarter to back that neither side will sustain a lead across the end of all four quarters. 

For those seeking some extra value, Toby Greene was the first goalscorer of the corresponding H2H in Canberra last year and he has already booted the Giants’ opener twice in 2023!

Tip: ‘Wire To Wire’: Any Other Result - 2.12 With Unibet

Value Play: Toby Greene First Goalscorer - 10.0 With Bet365

Best Betting Sites

Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne, Sunday, 4:40pm (AEST)

Two sides expected to struggle throughout 2023 are looking for a much-needed win at the newly renamed Heritage Bank Stadium, where the Gold Coast Suns (W1 L4) secured their only win of the season against an under-par Geelong outfit. 

They coughed up a 23-point half-time lead against Fremantle at Norwood Oval last week to run out narrow losers, the fourth game involving the Suns this year that saw both sides lead at the end of at least one quarter each.

Head coach Stuart Dew has received the support of his bosses despite conceding he is “under pressure” ahead of some winnable games against upcoming opponents North Melbourne (W2 L3) as well as Richmond and West Coast that could see him out the door if things don’t go their way. 

Fortunately, as far as this match is concerned, they’re taking on an opposition travelling north with 10 consecutive Queensland defeats to their name.

Carrara Stadium

Despite 13 goals from outside Coleman Medal contender Nick Larkey, the Roos are yet to clear 90 points in a game this year and lost their way defensively in losses to Carlton and Brisbane after three straight games that were decided by a margin of under 20 points. 

That consequently saw them concede 23 second half goals across those last two games, but there’s a great opportunity to wrest that back in their favour against a side averaging just five second half goals per game in 2023.

In this fixture between two of the five lowest scoring clubs, it makes sense to want to lean towards the ‘unders’ with PlayUp

Further in its favour is that the last five meetings between these sides didn’t exceed the main total points handicap.

Tip: Under 164.5 Points - 1.9 With PlayUp

Value Play: Jack Lukosius First Goalscorer - 12.0 With Unibet

Collingwood Magpies vs Essendon Bombers, Tuesday, 3:20pm (AEST)

Collingwood Magpies (W4 L1) began the 2023 season as equal third favourites in the AFL Premiership market with Bet365, so perhaps it is no shock to see them amongst a small handful of teams to have already produced three wins as pre-match favourites in 2023.

The lofty expectations hoisted upon them after their top-four finish last home and away season has seen them cover the line just twice following a narrow win over St Kilda in Adelaide last week.

Their atmospheric rise under new coach Craig McRae saw them pile on 260 points in the opening fortnight before Richmond, Brisbane and St Kilda applied the handbrakes. 

The Pies head into this round having won three of the last four ANZAC Day fixtures and, off the back of the superb start to 2023 for both teams, the crowd is expected to break the 90,000 barrier for the ninth time in its nearly 30 year history.

Having already put together four multiple goalkicking hauls this year, Collingwood forward Brody Mihocek could have a big say in this contest.

Essendon Bombers (W4 L1) were rank outsiders in the outright market prior to this season and, with three of their first four wins of the season against current bottom-half opposition, still had a lot of questions to answer before being considered the ‘real deal’. 

They went a long way towards doing that when converting their second quarter-time lead of the season into an eye-catching wire-to-wire over Melbourne, the Premiership favourites who had lost just three quarters of football in the opening four rounds. 

In fact, they were just the second side in 54 games to rack up 100 points against the normally impenetrable Demons defence.

Consequently, the Bombers stand out as the only team in the competition to have covered the line in every game this year and are in the top four alongside Collingwood not only on the ladder, but for key metrics such as inside 50s and contested possessions. 

Essendon have taken out three of the last five H2Hs played across the year, losing the other two by margins of fewer than 12 points. 

More conservative punters may therefore be interested in the +14.5 line, but we feel that the prices should be much closer even despite Zach Merrett unsuccessfully fighting his one-week ban. 

Tip: Essendon To Win  - 2.8 With Bet365

Value Play: Brody Mihocek First Goalscorer - 11.0 With Ladbrokes

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