AFL Betting Tips Round 6: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
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AFL Round 6 Predictions:
- Adelaide-Essendon under 173.5 points - 1.9 @ Bet365
- GWS to win - 2.05 @ PlayUp
- Geelong ‘Wire to Wire - 5.0 @ Unibet
Six weeks into the 2024 AFL season, there’s already a significant split emerging in the standings with three wins separating sixth from 14th.
Six clubs have already notched up at least four wins, led by the perfect 5-0 records for GWS Giants and Geelong, whilst there’s not a lot of surprise when looking at the five teams with one or no wins to their names.
Geelong are still eighth or thereabouts in the Premiership markets on most betting sites despite their unbeaten start to 2024, whilst reigning champions Collingwood are still just as (if not more) fancied in the markets despite losing three of their five opening games.
It’s Melbourne and Richmond’s turn to have a week off before the fixture settle down to a steady nine matches per round again, and it promises to be an exciting start to Round 6 with little separating the combatants in three of the first four games in terms of AFL betting odds.
We’ve again identified what we hope to be a handy edge on the total points markets this week, whilst saving a big value play for Saturday night’s game at The Gabba.
Adelaide Crows v Essendon Bombers, Friday, 7:40pm (AEST)
Adelaide and Essendon both secured their first wins of 2024 as betting underdogs last round and the Crows will be hoping to come out on top in their second game as favourites after losing by 19 points to Geelong at the Adelaide Oval in Round 2.
Perhaps remarkably for some, Adelaide are now on a three-game losing streak at this venue, including two defeats to Victorian opposition (Geelong and Melbourne).
They’ve also lost their last two home games against Essendon, albeit in 2020 and 2019, although the Dons won’t be looking too favourably upon this ground having lost five straight games to Port Adelaide since last visiting the Crows here.
Adelaide are kicking with an accuracy of less than 44% and are last in the league for inside 50s with just 8.8 per game on average, and with an average of 65 points per match to their name it’s little wonder their matches are totalling less than 146 points.
Essendon haven’t been especially flash in attack, either, managing a middling 83 points per match including just 42 at this ground against Port Adelaide only two rounds back.
A total of 173.5 looks a generously high total given Adelaide’s severe deficiencies in the forward 50.
For those who like a silly throw at the stumps in the First Goalscorer market, you could perhaps do worse than backing Essendon recruit Jade Gresham, who opened the scoring in each of his last three interstate games for the Bombers and Saints.
Best Bet: Under 173.5 total points -1.9 @ Bet365
Player Prop: Jade Gresham first goalscorer - 15.0 @ Ladbrokes
Carlton Blues v GWS Giants, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
Carlton’s three-game winning streak as favourites came to an agonising end at the hands of the previously winless Adelaide at home last week, and at the exact same time this weekend they are out to prevent a repeat of last season’s 32-point home loss to GWS in Round 24.
They ought not be too perturbed by a two-point loss given their winning habit prior to that, though some of the opposition they conquered prior (such as North Melbourne and Richmond) haven’t shown themselves to be particularly threatening.
Carlton have shown themselves to be one of the most efficient midfields of the competition so far and come up against the busiest midfield of the season, for GWS started this round averaging a league-high 388 disposals per game.
AFL betting sites suggest this is going to be their toughest test yet, for it will be their first start of 2024 as outsiders.
But with a tremendous 7-4 record as the away outsiders last year, wins in two of their last three games against Carlton at Marvel Stadium, and the confidence that comes from a five-game winning streak, they look one of the better outsiders to back this weekend, especially with 2.05 on offer at time of writing.
Best Bet: GWS to win - 2.05 @ PlayUp
Player Prop: Lachie Whitfield 30+ disposals - 1.87 @ Bluebet
Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)
Geelong recorded just 50 and 54 points in their last two trips to The Gabba since their famous preliminary final triumph of 2021, but as the second-highest scoring team of the first six rounds it would be remarkably surprising to see them register anywhere near as low a total this time around.
The 2023 runners-up Brisbane have had a tremendously underwhelming start to 2024, losing three of their four games as pre-match favourites and seeing The Gabba’s ‘fortress’ status busted by losses to both Collingwood and Carlton.
After finishing the 2023 season as the league’s highest scoring team with a tremendous average of 94 points per game, they plummeted down to tenth with an average of 84 points in a period in which some of their biggest names were kept remarkably quiet.
Those names such as Charlie Cameron (three goals), Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood (two goals each) were amongst the goalkickers in last weekend’s 22-point away win over Melbourne at the MCG, and they’ll be hoping to finally establish some consistency following back-to-back wins.
But the Cats have been explosive from the get-go, racking up one of the league’s best inside 50 counts (14.6 per game) and kicking with one of its best accuracies (55%) despite being a middling site for other key metrics such as clearances and contested possessions.
Furthermore, they’ve led at the end of every single quarter in 2024, picking up five straight ‘wire to wire’ wins which makes this particular market with exchange betting sites a possibly high-value play for those punters who think Geelong will come out on top this weekend.
After breaking out with his biggest haul of 2024, Jeremy Cameron could now be in the right frame to expand upon a sensational record away to Brisbane, in which he cleared 3+ goals in all but one of his last seven games.
Best Bet: Geelong to lead after every quarter - 5.0 @ Unibet
Player Prop: Jeremy Cameron 3+ goals - 2.5 @ Ladbrokes
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