AFL Betting Tips Round 7: Our Best Bets For This Week’s Games
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AFL Round 7 Predictions:
- Port Adelaide To Win By 1-39 Points - 3.1 With PlayUp
- Sydney -22.5 Points - 1.9 With BlueBet
- Essendon v Geelong: Over 174.5 Total Points - 1.9 With Unibet
- Adelaide v Collingwood: Winning Margin - Either Team Under 15.5 Points - 2.65 With Ladbrokes
It was a finish befitting of the occasion on Tuesday in front of 95,000 people at the MCG last week when Collingwood reminded the competition - despite enough off-field drama lately to fill a book - why they are joint Premiership favourites with betting sites.
Those who switched off the television or stopped following the live AFL scores on their phone at three-quarter time could have been forgiven for contemplating the repercussions of an Essendon win before Collingwood piled on seven goals to one in the final term.
The Bombers’ follow-up clash with Geelong will be one game where we will be attacking some popular markets for Round 7.
St Kilda Saints v Port Adelaide Power, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)
For the third time this season, St Kilda (W5 L1) made the infamous “Premiership quarter” their own, putting on the afterburners after the half-time break to edge away from a competitive but profligate Carlton opposition.
More often than not in 2023, they’ve taken on vulnerable opposition coming in off the back of previous week defeats, but that’s not the case this time around when Port Adelaide (W4 L2) make their second trip to Victoria after three increasingly commanding wins.
Whilst the Saints are producing some of the best footy we’ve seen from them in years, it’s hard to ignore the head-to-head history that has produced 11 wins from 12 meetings for the Power - albeit with seven matches played in Adelaide between 2014 and 2021.
Playing under the roof at Marvel Stadium is no issue whatsoever for Port Adelaide, who have won seven in-a-row since the start of 2021.
Now that they have been closing games out much stronger and have the services of Charlie Dixon again, we feel the prices on AFL betting sites between these sides should be much closer.
St Kilda have conceded only 60 points per game and Port just 10 marks inside 50 per match, there doesn’t appear to be any danger of Port winning by 40+ points.
For those who like their first goalscorer punts, Sam Powell-Pepper has opened the match scoring twice and kicked Port’s first goal three times already!
Tip: Port Adelaide To Win By 1-39 Points - 3.1 With PlayUp
Tip: Sam Powell-Pepper To Be The First Goalscorer - 15.0 With Bet365
Sydney Swans v GWS Giants, Saturday, 2:10pm (AEST)
Sydney (W3 L3) ended a run of three consecutive losses to GWS (W2 L4) at the SCG on their way to the Grand Final late last season, but since comprehensively dealing with hapless Hawthorn and Gold Coast in the opening fortnight they have taken some significant steps backwards.
If last week’s 93-point thrashing at the hands of Geelong was not a wake-up call, nothing will be.
One of the least experienced matchday squads in the league were pulled apart and this week should receive some crucial reinforcements, with Lance Franklin, Tom Hickey and Tom McCartin all looking likely returnees as of Thursday morning local time.
Despite losing three of their last four games, the Swans were second only to Collingwood for inside 50s and third in the league for centre clearances.
The Giants, on the other hand, have been outclassed by mid-table opposition such as Brisbane and Carlton, while stumbling over the line against last-placed Hawthorn and being the only club to lose to West Coast in the opening six weeks.
John Longmire will no doubt have stuck the boot up his players during the week and will be demanding more against an opposition that has covered the pre-match line just once this year.
Extended form slumps from the Swans are rare and seeing this one continue would shock, that’s why you should back the -22.5 point handicap BlueBet offer on Sydney.
Tip: Sydney -22.5 Points - 1.9 With BlueBet
Essendon Bombers v Geelong Cats, Sunday, 1:10pm (AEST)
Despite being the better side for three quarters on ANZAC Day, Essendon (W4 L2) collapsed when it mattered most to register an honourable loss against second-placed Collingwood.
Their next assignment is to end a run of 10 consecutive losses against the defending Premiers of the day when Geelong (W3, L3), one of four clubs to win from rounds four through six, return to the MCG.
It was of no comfort to Bombers fans to see them cover the pre-match line for a sixth straight week, but with two of the league’s leading teams for kicking efficiency - inside 50s and goals per inside 50 -coming together this week, we’re expecting these teams to exceed an already healthy total points set by Unibet.
Two-thirds of games involving either club this year finished ‘overs’, as did Geelong’s last five games at the ‘G and as did the last three head-to-heads!
Having piled on more than 125 points themselves in each of their three consecutive wins, the Cats should do some significant damage to the total - particularly with Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins kicking incredibly accurately (27.7 and 14.6) in 2023.
In fact, both teams are exceeding the AFL average for overall goalscoring accuracy in 2023, which could set the game up for an entertaining shootout.
While it’s tempting to back Essendon to cover the line yet again, it’s a brave move given the bulldozers that Geelong have been lately.
Tip: Over 174.5 Total Points - 1.9 With Unibet
Adelaide Crows v Collingwood Magpies, Sunday, 4:40pm (AEST)
Adelaide struggled for the four points against Hawthorn last round, but responded to some electric footy from the Hawks and got the job done when it mattered most - kicking the last two goals of the game in a kind of result that can often be more beneficial than an easy win.
Things won’t get any easier when Collingwood makes another trip to South Australia, but the Crows are back home having won three on the spin at Adelaide Oval.
Collingwood’s thrilling come-from-behind win on ANZAC Day was their third of the season decided by less than 16 points.
So, when considering the calibre of opposition (Essendon, St Kilda, Richmond), they have had some hard-fought contests with, Adelaide could provide a similar challenge and outcome.
For someone who has already kicked Collingwood’s first goal twice this season and loves to be amongst the stoppages up forward, Tom Mitchell appears to be an outstanding price to open the scoring at 40/1 with PlayUp.
Tip: Winning Margin - Either Team Under 15.5 Points - 2.65 With Ladbrokes
Value Play: Tom Mitchell First Goalscorer - 41.0 With PlayUp
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