AFL Betting Tips Round 8: Our Best Bets For This Week’s Games
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AFL Round 8 Predictions:
- Brisbane By 1-39 Points - 2.65 With PlayUp
- Gold Coast V Melbourne Over 166.5 Points - 1.9 With BlueBet
- Western Bulldogs -10.5 points - 1.9 With Unibet
- Collingwood by 1-39 points - 2.2 With Bet365
Round 7 was very kind to our loyal readers thanks to Port Adelaide getting the job done at a great price, while the Geelong-Essendon and Adelaide-Collingwood matches delivered easy watches as far as our investments were concerned.
Carlton and Brisbane each have questions to answer under the Marvel Stadium roof on Friday night, opening another nine-game program that concludes at the same venue on Sunday evening when St Kilda will be expected to bounce back from last week’s narrow loss to Port Adelaide.
Betting sites are anticipating a couple of lopsided affairs and some modest scores, one of which we keenly disagree with.
Here are our four best bets for the weekend as well as a couple of value goalscoring picks that caught our eye. Punt well!
Carlton Blues v Brisbane Lions, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)
Whereas the scheduling gods had saved the best for last in the most recent couple of rounds, this time it’s the Friday night fixture that could be the most closely contested of the round according to AFL betting sites.
Carlton Blues (W4 D1 L2) enjoyed their first 100-point win in a decade last week in a match that likely said more about their failing opposition than it did about them.
As it stands, three of their four wins were against current bottom-half clubs and the other was over the Cats during their three-game loss to open the season. Tougher tests such as Adelaide and St Kilda have so far proven too difficult.
So, what will the Brisbane Lions (W5 L2), who have won six of their last eight games at Marvel Stadium and their last three against the Blues, have to offer?
To date, the Lions have been poor outside of Queensland, but began correcting that record a fortnight ago with a hard-fought win against GWS.
Their four wins on the trot, as well as defeats of top-two Collingwood and Melbourne this season, really should see them as favourites here.
Carlton should be good enough to keep the margin to below 40, so the 1-39 margin band appears a nice play.
For those interested in playing around the favourite Charlie Curnow in the First Goalscorer market on PlayUp, Carlton’s Corey Durdin booted Carlton’s first within the opening five minutes in Rounds 3 and 5.
Tip: Brisbane by 1-39 points - 2.65 With PlayUp
Value Play: Corey Durdin First Goalscorer - 17.0 With Unibet
Gold Coast Suns v Melbourne Demons, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
Bluebet have set most total points marks around the 165-175 point range.
That has caught our attention here given Melbourne Demons (W5 L2) worked their way into second with a league-best average of 110 points per game, and if the Gold Coast Suns (W3 L4) cannot put in another stern defensive effort, the overs could clear comfortably.
Much like Carlton, the Suns are yet to claim a big scalp. They were helped by some very ordinary kicking from the hapless pair of Richmond and North Melbourne in their consecutive wins, while they too took full advantage of Geelong’s sluggish start to the season.
In their four losses so far, the Suns have conceded 100+ points on each occasion.
Melbourne have to be careful of the fact that the Suns won seven of their last 10 home games against interstate visitors, but with 10 straight head-to-head wins they’re on track to buck the trend.
The Dees have been guilty of the odd hiccup in 2023, but Essendon and Brisbane are both quality sides deserving of their scalps.
The Suns’ recent home record is enough to turn us off the skinny price for Melbourne and instead towards what appears to be a modest total points handicap.
Nine of the 14 matches involving either club this year finished ‘overs’, as has eight of Melbourne’s last 10 games, and if they can continue the goalkicking efficiency that saw them amass 37 goals from 50 shots in the past two rounds, that trend should continue.
Tip: Gold Coast v Melbourne over 166.5 points - 1.9 With BlueBet
GWS Giants v Western Bulldogs, Saturday, 7:25pm (AEST)
Much to our chagrin, GWS Giants (W3 L4) shirked a line of about 23 points to win a thrilling Sydney derby by a single point, continuing a very even-handed head-to-head history with their crosstown rivals.
It was their first win from four attempts as an outsider, and their next task is to pick up consecutive wins for the first time in 2023.
There’s just something about Canberra’s Manuka Oval that doesn’t get along with the Giants, however.
Their defeat to Brisbane a fortnight ago took their record in the nation’s capital to 0-7 this decade, with an average losing margin of 32 points.
Despite that, Australian betting sites are expecting them to use the momentum from that derby win to give fellow bottom-half club Western Bulldogs (W4 L3) a much more difficult challenge than the 39-point win the Bulldogs enjoyed when these teams met in Canberra in 2021.
Luke Beveridge’s side come into this game in better shape after four wins from their last five outings, courtesy of some strong defensive showings that saw them concede more than 70 points just once in that period.
They are welcoming back star Marcus Bontempelli from concussion, which in itself could tilt this contest in their favour.
All eyes will be on GWS dynamo Toby Greene after he kicked the clutch match-winner against Sydney, in addition to the Giants’ opening goal twice in 2023 and most team goals on four occasions.
Bookmakers are keeping him safe as the First Goalscorer favourite, but with 28 goals from his last seven games against the Dogs, it could pay to back an exceptional performance.
Tip: Western Bulldogs -10.5 points - 1.9 With Unibet
Value Play: Toby Greene 4+ goals - 5.0 With Ladbrokes
Collingwood Magpies v Sydney Swans, Sunday, 3:20pm (AEST)
Remarkably, this will be the first meeting in Victoria between the Collingwood Magpies (W6 L1) and Sydney Swans (W3 L4) in 10 years, which is just another reason to throw the recent head-to-head form (three consecutive wins to Sydney) out the window.
The Magpies reclaimed their place at the top of the ladder with a third consecutive win, all against clubs to finish Round 7 ninth or higher.
Perhaps it is because of the difficulty of the opposition that all but one of their six victories have been within the 1-39 point margin bracket, and we fancy they’ll wish to replicate their gluttonous Round 2 feast against an out-of-sorts opposition.
But will John Longmire’s men let them? They’ll be mentally bruised after the heartbreak of last weekend’s derby defeat and return to Victoria with the memories of a 93-point loss to Geelong still fresh in their minds.
Sydney have failed to cover the line in four of their last five games and are back at the MCG after conceding tons in back-to-back weeks.
Nic Daicos has been alternating between two-goal hauls and nothing for his last six appearances, and while that pattern does not guarantee he’ll avenge last week’s blank against Adelaide, getting 3.65 for him with Unibet to do something he has achieved in half of his last six appearances might be worth a nibble.
Tip: Collingwood by 40+ points - 2.2 With Bet365
Value Play: Nic Daicos 2+ Goals - 3.65 With Unibet
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