AFL Finals Week 3 Betting Tips: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch

Date IconLast Updated: 21 Sep 2023
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AFL Finals Week 3 Betting Tips: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch

AFL Finals Week 3 Predictions:

Fourteen out, four remaining! There are two new faces this year as Carlton and the GWS Giants join 2022 preliminary finalists Collingwood and Brisbane, who both fell at this hurdle to eventual grand finalists Geelong and Sydney.

That pair are both narrow favourites to contest what would be a repeat of the 2002 and 2003 grand finals, but neither are by any means assured of taking their places at the MCG next weekend.

AFL betting sites are loaded with hundreds of markets for the 2023 preliminary finals and we’ve picked out two of our strongest predictions as well as two player bets that will add some value to your weekend betslip (or same game multis if you’re Nathan Brown!).

Collingwood Magpies v GWS Giants, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)

Betting sites can separate these two sides by only 10 points and after some of the performances the Giants have managed in the second half of the season, rattling off 11 wins in their last 13 outings including five as the underdog.

GWS controlled their away finals against Port Adelaide and Saint Kilda by leading practically from start to finish and, by becoming the first team to win at 11+ venues in a season (it could have been 12 if they didn’t lose to West Coast in Round 2!), have shown there’s no stadium in the country that daunts them.

They were a completely different side in the first half of the campaign, having since avenged earlier season defeats to Essendon, Carlton, St Kilda and the Bulldogs.

But there’s another box to tick here: turning around a 65-point loss at the MCG to Collingwood in May.

The Giants have been consistently productive by creating at least 20 scoring shots in all 10 outings since a 47-45 win over Melbourne in the red centre, which has held them in good stead for months at a time.

Collingwood’s hard-fought qualifying final win over Melbourne (60-53) was their 11th game of the season to have been decided by a 1-16 point margin, which is notably second only to the Giants who have been involved in 12 games with such final margins. 

On that basis, we’re in agreement with exchange betting sites that this will be a tight contest.

Giants spearhead Jesse Hogan is finishing the season strong, just as he did last year, and we’d be incredibly lucky to miss out on him getting another 2+ goal haul to go with the 11 from his previous 12 matches and the three from his last three matchups against the Pies.

Best Bet: Either team by under 15.5 points - 2.65 With Bluebet

Player Prop: Jesse Hogan to kick 2+ goals - 1.7 With Bet365

Brisbane Lions v Carlton Blues, Saturday, 5:15pm (AEST)

Carlton continues to shake off their critics week after week, scaling heights not seen for 20 years after winning 11 of their last 12 matches after a point at which they had been written off as top-eight contenders.

That includes four consecutive wins as pre-match outsiders, and three against top-four finishers, which in itself is a compelling case not to discount them here.

Further in their favour is Brisbane’s loss of key defender Jack Payne and Carlton’s inclusions of Harry McKay and Jack Martin, though Carlton have learned throughout the year not to be dependent on the former.

Becoming the first visiting side to win in Brisbane from 12 attempts is an enormous task, but Carlton are a fearless and confident side who have demonstrated an ability to absorb enormous pressure (exhibit A: their win against Collingwood), whilst the Lions haven’t always been able to do so. 

Brisbane’s home ground advantage should be worth enough for them to get through to their first grand final in 19 years, but it’s hard to see it being smooth sailing.

One can get some outstanding value on player markets if they shop around, with some enormous discrepancies amongst Australian betting sites, which is why we always endeavour to find you the best price in the market for our best bets.

This week is no exception, with 2.6 on offer at Bluebet for Joe Daniher to add to his five goals against Port Adelaide a fortnight ago with at least another three, compared with as little as 2.1 in some other well known players.

Daniher has been in imperious form at The Gabba all year, averaging three goals per game in 2023 and clearing 3+ in six of 12 starts. 2.6 for something that has occurred one in two times? Sounds good to us!

Best Bet: Carlton +19.5 points - 1.9 With PlayUp

Player Prop: Joe Daniher to kick 3+ goals - 2.6 With Ladbrokes