This US Presidential Election 2024 betting guide is here to help you choose the latest odds, discover the best political betting sites, read politics betting tips and understand how breaking news affects markets, so you can bet with confidence across a wide range of bookmakers.
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Bookmakers explain why betting odds on the US election can differ from polling | A flurry of bets on Donald Trump to win the 2020 US Election artificially deflated his odds and bookmakers explain why there is a real discrepancy between betting markets and polling results.
Joe Biden is the president – but will he last a full term? | Biden is the oldest US president in history at the age of 78 and his odds of completing a full term in office may wobble.
Can Donald Trump win the 2024 US Election? | Having lost to Joe Biden in 2020, the president is turning his attention to a run for the White House in 2024 and his odds indicate this is already a possibility.
If he doesn’t run for 2024, what will Trump do next? | Working out what is next for Trump has fascinated punters and pundits alike. One thing for sure is we haven’t seen the last of the tycoon.
Will Mike Pence win the 2024 US Election? | Amid the fall-out of Trump’s final days as president, his VP Mike Pence may instigate a push to become the Republican candidate in 2024.
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The next US election could be one of the most dramatic in recent political history as Donald Trump weighs up whether or not to run again. Trump lost the 2020 race to Democrat Joe Biden after the build-up to polling day turned nasty. The incumbent called foul on the voting process when mail-in ballots began to be counted in the days following the election. Biden eventually nudged ahead in key swing states and ended up winning by 306 electoral college votes to 232.
And despite Barack Obama’s former VP winning the popular vote by over seven million people, Trump has maintained that the election was unfairly rigged against him. His stance resulted in a riot taking place at the Capitol building in Washington DC, where five people died. Trump was subsequently impeached by the House of Representatives for a second time in his political career.
Betting on the next US president is likely to endure many fluctuations over the coming years. Trump may not be allowed to run again if he is convicted by the Senate following his impeachment. Meanwhile, there is doubt over Biden’s likelihood of standing for a second term in 2024, when he will be 82 years old.
Attention, therefore, is focusing on Biden’s vice president Kamala Harris. The 56-year-old is the first woman, first African American and first Asian American vice president in the history of the United States. Her first big duty alongside Biden is to tackle America’s coronavirus crisis, the economic impact of the disease and reverse a number of Trump policies.
Success in these fields will certainly give the Democrats a boost in the lead-up to the 2022 mid-term elections. However, there's still a long way to go before the next presidential election, and the Biden/Harris ticket will be judged on how the country fares closer to the 2024 polling date.
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American pollsters often accurately predict who will win the US election – and indeed the political betting odds usually follow the same trend and reflect the mood of the nation. Yet 2016 became the year where polling companies and bookmakers had to think again about political elections.
Trump’s victory over Clinton was a shock but perhaps we shouldn’t have been so surprised. After all, earlier that year the UK voted to leave the European Union in one of the most politically-controversial results in history.
Betting on the US election while the incumbent is running for a second term is often more straightforward than when it’s two new faces battling for the White House. That’s because there are few one-term presidents in the modern era and the markets reflect this confidence in the current office-holder. Indeed, Trump was the favourite to win the 2020 election before coronavirus struck — largely because the US economy was thriving.
Trump duly lost his second election by over seven million votes to join George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter as recent one-term presidents. As election day neared, Trump was never truly in the race. He trailed by over 10 percentage points in the polls, while even the most optimistic bettors gave him just a 40 per cent chance of winning. He was unable to stir America as he did in 2016 but may hope that 2024 offers another chance to upset the US political landscape.
Watching Democrat and Republican campaign trails certainly produces plenty of talking points – but the US presidential election drama starts years before then. Bookmakers run their markets on who will win the next US election years before the vote actually takes place. And this is good news for bettors who have their finger on the pulse when it comes to political fluctuations.
As we saw during the Trump presidency, the betting odds and rise and fall with great freedom. Whether it’s economic boom, trade wars with China, withdrawing from global environmental summits or the coronavirus pandemic, the odds are susceptible to change.
Many punters like to play the odds in order to maximise their potential profits. This method of engaging in arbitrage requires betting on political outcomes at high odds, and then laying the same market once those odds have come in.
We always saw this during the 2020 US election, when Biden was originally an outsider to get the Democratic candidacy. Bettors piled in on his price to win the presidency, and as soon as he was confirmed as the party’s choice to run against Trump, his chances at the election dropped to 50/50. In turn, bettors laid their bets on his securing the Oval Office.
Of course, Biden went on to beat Trump but the same tactical betting is expected to take place for 2024. Already his VP Harris is the favourite to win the next election as her price is snapped up by early bettors. Trump’s odds have risen and fallen but will likely hold steady until he announces his decision to run.
This backing and laying strategy is risky business but past elections have shown how profitable it can be. Obama was the heavy outsider to win the 2008 election when he first ran for the Democratic nomination. And Trump was the wild no-hoper with huge odds on the day he announced his run for office five years ago.
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Predicting who will win the US election is a minefield of polling numbers, betting odds, breaking news and sheer luck. And Trump’s win in 2016 was even more remarkable than Harry Truman beating Thomas Dewey in 1948, or Franklin D. Roosevelt winning all but two states in 1936.
Heading into this election we will see the same, tired gimmicks that come around every four years. A chimpanzee in a Milwaukee zoo will choose between a red and a blue food bowl to ‘predict’ the winner; a man in Oregon will boast about finding a potato chip with a weird likeness to Trump; a beached whale will be recorded audibly moaning the word “Biiiiden” as rescuers battle to set it free.
There are some weird trends that appear to capture the imagination of the country. School kids voting for president boast a +80% chance of getting it right every year. Vigo County in Indiana correctly voted to within five percentage points of the national election result in every poll from 1960 until Trump’s shock win in 2016.
These light-hearted trends and many others are all part of the fun of predicting the election. Whether or not they make for a good basis for political bets is for you to decide.
Political pollsters and punters learned plenty of lessons from the 2016 election, where Trump claimed a historic victory over Clinton. What many experts believed would be a straight-forward contest descended into a bitter rivalry and the divisive nature of the election campaign went in Trump’s favour.
A year out from the 2016 election and Trump was 25/1 to win. That price plummeted to 6/4 on the eve of the first presidential debate, during which he staked his claim for the White House.
As polling day neared, the split between bets for Trump and Clinton was notable. Most of the big bets — those that run into thousands of pounds — were placed on Clinton to claim victory. Yet the majority of small bets from average punters landed at Trump’s door. This is largely because his odds were just too good to refuse, and some of the biggest and best bookmakers were made to pay when the underdog won his seat in the White House.
Bookmakers, pollsters and punters have all learned their lesson from 2016. And the 2020 election also gave them something to think about in terms of long-form betting. After all, Trump was the heavy favourite to win in 2020 just a year out from the vote. The US economy was doing well, the Democrats still didn’t have a pick to rival him, and successful populist elections elsewhere in the world appeared to be an endorsement for Trumpism.
Yet the coronavirus pandemic, civil rights protests and subsequent economic downturn in 2020 exposed a lack of leadership in Trump that bettors leapt on. Biden barely had to say a word to draw level with the president in the run-up to the election and come November 3 the Democrat was leading in the polls and latest betting odds to win.
Looking ahead to 2024, there is sure to be plenty of tumult that bettors can exploit. Question marks will be put on how the Biden administration fuels the post-Covid economic recovery, as well as America’s standing on the world stage. And don’t be surprised if Trump is circling every step of the way.
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