US Democrat Iowa Caucus Betting Odds, Tips & Analysis

Date IconLast Updated: 2022 Dec 14
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US Democrat Iowa Caucus Betting Odds, Tips & Analysis

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Quick Iowa Caucus Betting Odds

  • Bernie Sanders - 4/6 with Coral
  • Joe Biden - 9/4 with Betway
  • Pete Buttigieg - 10/1 with Unibet
  • Elizabeth Warren - 12/1 with Paddy Power

Less than one week out from the Iowa Caucuses - the traditional curtain raiser of primary season - Bernie Sanders is all the rage. He's into a best-priced 7/4 with Unibet for the Democratic nomination and 9/2 with Coral to become the Next President.

Sanders Odds-On For Each Of First Three Races

Such confidence is driven by the fact he is now odds-on favourite with the best political betting sites for the opening three primaries. As explained last week, history says it is extremely difficult to win the nomination without these early, momentum-building victories.

Nevertheless as the betting implies, Sanders is no certainty. In fact it isn't entirely clear what the polling picture in Iowa is. Three of the last four surveys put him in front, polling between 25 and 30%. However a fourth for Suffolk University had him on a mere 19%, 6% behind Joe Biden.

I'm strongly inclined to assume the best polls are right in Sanders case. At this stage, he evidently is the one with momentum - nationally, locally or online. His grassroots supporters were especially effective at winning caucuses in 2016 - they are probably even better organised now.

Caucuses are very different from primaries, in that their process favours the more energised and organised local campaigns. Rather than simply vote at a polling station, caucus-goers attend a local meeting to engage in a complex process, which involves eliminating weaker candidates and attempting to win their supporters over. See this guide for an explanation.

What this means is that current polls will not reflect the eventual outcome. Supporters of candidates scoring less than 15% at a particular caucus venue will transfer their votes to another candidate. In addition to the 10-15% who are undecided, a similar number will support no-hopers such as Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer and Tulsi Gabbard and therefore end up being redistributed.

Based on past Iowa results, a winning total is probably around 35% of delegates. The lowest total of a Democrat winner this century is 38% (Obama, Kerry) but the last two Republican races were won on 28 and 25%.

Star Surrogates Likely To Boost Sanders Campaign

Sanders therefore hasn't necessarily reached a winning total yet, but I wouldn't doubt he will do so, and rate 8/11 decent value. Both Yang and Gabbard supporters are very likely to switch to him, rather than the more mainstream alternatives - who are bound to split several ways.

Critically, his campaign will not be matched for excitement and enthusiasm. Four years ago I attended numerous rallies in Iowa, amongst which Bernie's gathering in Des Moines was incomparable. Queues stretched miles in the snow. This despite, at that stage, having much less name recognition and barely any well-known surrogates.

This time he's got the stars of the progressive movement - Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Michael Moore. Nobody came close to Sanders' crowd sizes last weekend.



Extra Democrat Voters Likelier To Be On Moderate Wing

The flipside to that argument is that this Democrat primary audience will be markedly different from 2016 and arguably less favorable to a progressive. Expect to see a massive rise in turnout everywhere from voters determined to defeat Trump - especially women - plus moderates and even Republicans who would have voted in the headline-dominating GOP contest four years ago.

I somewhat doubt the polls will be able to accurately pick up changed levels of enthusiasm, adding more confusion to their picture. Historically the best guide has been the Des Moines Register/Selzer poll - watch out for their final numbers over the weekend.

Whilst I do expect the Sanders vote to hold up, it won't amount to a majority and the more interesting question involves how the rest divides. Something like half of voters are undecided. They will be watching multiple rallies before making their choices, and noting endorsements.


Check Out: BetRegal Sports for latest odds, free bets and welcome bonus.


Warren and Buttigieg could outperform the polls

Herein lies the Sanders problem - they will go elsewhere. Elizabeth Warren has picked up the important Des Moines Register endorsement. Joe Biden and Amy Klobuchar have also unveiled support from influential local leaders.

Warren is reportedly picking up late deciders. With Klobuchar apparently stuck well below 15%, the Massachusetts Senator will be the top-placed woman and also the progressive (unlike Sanders) who can appeal to a broader Democrat electorate. Repeating the fact that women have been winning ever since Trump was elected plays well with this audience. Check out this well-attended meeting in Davenport.



Warren's aim here is a top-two, worst ways top-three finish, to remain competitive. Ditto her rivals on the right, or moderate wing, of the party. National polls suggest that wing has a majority of Democrat voters - hence how Joe Biden is still leading.

For Biden, 20% and a top-three finish is fine. Few expected him to win Iowa anyway. However he has a very serious threat from Pete Buttigieg, who needs to beat Biden to build his profile and case to be the moderate voice.

Depending which poll you read, Mayor Pete is competitive. He may also be the type to benefit from extra, moderate and youth turnout. I can see him finishing second, ahead of Biden, and causing all sorts of headaches among anti-Sanders Democrats. If failing to beat the former VP, though, Buttigieg's campaign will be on life support.

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    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    17
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Monster Casino Sportsbook is the new sports betting offering from this long established casino brand, with a small but select selection of sports to bet on.
  31. 40
    Stake.com Betting
    Established 2017
    More Details
    Betting Partner of UFC, Everton, & Watford FC
    Vast range of sports and markets on offer
    UEFA Champions League and More Live Streaming
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    100
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    38
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    The world's leading crypto sports betting site - Buy and bet with 19 different cryptocurrencies.
  32. 41
    Nine Sports
    Established 2021
    More Details
    Licensed Bookie With Top-Tier Security Protocol
    Tournaments for New and Returning Bettors
    Prompt Payouts Across All Payment Methods
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    16
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    NineCasinos Sportsbook is a fairly new bookmaker that covers dozens of betting markets and various sports events. It allows live sports betting, and offers a generous prize for sports tournaments.
  33. 42
    BetItOn Sportsbook
    Established 2020
    More Details
    Rising Star Operator of the Year' 2021
    Single or Acca Bets Cashout
    ‘BoostItOn’ Accumulator Boosts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    12
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    BetItOn have ex-Liverpool striker and Champions League winner Djibril Cissé as their brand ambassador and resident football expert
  34. Mega Win When Bettors Combine Selections
    Comprehensive Collection of Sports, Including Esports
    Esports Video Streams
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    18
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Neo.Bet is a sportsbook that attracts users with its competitive odds and unique features. Personal bet configurator is one of them. The platform runs smoothly on devices with screens of all sizes.
  35. 44
    Parimatch Sports
    Established 1994
    More Details
    Big Selection of Live Betting Markets
    Clean Interface
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    23
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Casino players are not the only ones spoilt for choice with Parimatch, sports lovers are too. The betting platform features competitive odds on a big selection of sports.
  36. 45
    mr.play Sports
    Established 2017
    More Details
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Distinctive ‘Moustache’ Branding
    ‘PlayBoost’ Accumulator Boosts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    32
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Mr.Play Sports has a fun style of its very own, with a memorable handlebar 'tache wherever you look, but it boasts a serious amount of betting markets, plus Premier League & 'Euro Elite' betting battle tournaments.
  37. 46
    Sportaza Sports
    Established 2021
    More Details
    96% Payout Rate On Top Leagues
    Bitcoin And Other Crypto Payments Available
    Higher Odds Than Other Betting Site Options
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    30
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    -
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Unlike other betting companies, Sportaza appeals to a new generation of customer by gamifying its offering. This means every week, the online bookmaker will host challenges and tournaments where bettors earn points to improve their VIP rank.
  38. 47
    Spinzwin Sport
    Established 2017
    More Details
    Abundance of sports betting markets
    Licensed by UKGC and MGA
    Availability of partial cashouts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    21
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    SpinzWin definitely knows how to cut through the noise. The site’s operator has been in business for over a decade, which says a lot.
  39. 48
    Palm Slots Sports
    Established 2022
    More Details
    Crypto-Friendly - Including Bitcoin
    Integrated Casino Wallet
    Leading Esports Betting Provider
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    PALMBET100
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    21
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    A new sportsbook to Canada, PalmSlots is operated by NewEra B.V, a trusted brand responsible for Pribet, Cashalot, and FaroUK.
  40. 49
    Mr Mega Sports
    Established 2021
    More Details
    Accumulator Boosts of up to 77%
    Extensive Range of Football Markets
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    15
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    8
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Mr Mega Sports boasts an impressive and easy to use online betting interface, with markets on all major sports and events, plus a wide range of Esports betting markets.
  41. 50
    Betway Sports
    Established 2006
    More Details
    Esports Operator of the Year' 2019
    Rewarding Parlay Club
    Exclusive Esports Club
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    28
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Betway was founded back in 2006, making it one of the experienced brands in the market today. Aside from having a massive selection of sports, the brand excels with esports betting odds.