Oscars Betting Tips, Advice and Latest Odds

Oscars Betting Tips, Advice and Latest Odds
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Quick Tips:

Almost two months later than it is traditionally staged, this year’s Oscars – the 93rd Academy Awards – take place on April 25, 2021.

The Academy announced in June that it was pushing back the awards date due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on cinema. This move extended the eligibility period for feature films through to February 28, 2021.

The eligibility criteria had already been modified to account for films originally intended to have a theatrical release, but which were ultimately released directly to streaming services.

As a result, 2021 marks only the second time that films released in two different calendar years will be eligible for award consideration in the same ceremony.

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All The Right Ticks In The Formbook

What does that mean from an Oscars betting viewpoint? Very little. 2021 features a host of long odds-on shots and every form indicator suggests their price is fully justified.

Nomadland, for example, took the Golden Lion award at the Venice Film Festival. If that accolade is not the number one form pointer to the Best Picture award at the Oscars, the Best Motion Picture at the Golden Globe Awards is.

Nomadland won both plus a BAFTA making the 1/6 about this tale of a widow who travels through five states and 19 American towns in a van as a new-age nomad fully justified.

At 7/1 the ‘Trial of the Chicago 7’ is its closest rival. A very different type of film – starring Eddie Redmayne and Mark Rylance, the movie portrays anti-Vietnam War protesters during the 1968 Democratic National Convention – it received eight nominations at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs which resulted in just one award which was for ‘best screenplay’.

In total Nomadland has six Oscar nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography and Best Film editing. In the Best Director category Chloe Zhao is top-priced 1/14 with Paddy Power. It’s 4/11 for Best Adapted Screenplay (top-priced at Bet365); 4/9 for Best Cinematography (as short as 1/4 with many other major firms) and 9/1 for Best Film Editing.

A Third For McDormand?

While the merits of these prices could be debated until the eve of the Oscars, the 4/1 about Nomadland’s star – Frances McDormand – winning the Best Actress award looks an obvious standout proposition.

McDormand who has previously been recognised in this category for Fargo (1997) and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2018) has seen her price remain pretty stagnant whereas Andra Day who stars in ‘The United States vs. Billie Holiday’ traded as big as 10s and a short as 2’s in the immediate aftermath of her winning the equivalent Golden Globe.

Similarly, Carey Mulligan – the star of ‘Promising Young Woman’ which has five Oscar nominations – is out to 6/4 (she was odds-on two weeks ago). That price change is a reaction to the support for Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) who is now top-priced 2/1 (BetVictor) collapsing from 12/1 when the nominations were announced.

Ultimately there is a real sense of the punters having no idea of which way the Academy’s voters will turn. It is our belief, such is the overwhelming popularity of Nomadland as a film per se, McDormand can collect the telling votes in what may be a close-run contest.

Best Bet: Best Actress: Frances McDormand (4/1 with Bet365)

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Hopkins Might Upset The Boseman’s Applecart

Nomadland does not have a leading man which means the coast is clear for Chadwick Boseman, who was posthumously honoured at the 78th Golden Globes for his portrayal of an ambitious trumpeter in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, to land odds of 1/12 in the Best Actor category.

His movie has received five Oscar nominations and with a 98 per cent approval rate on Rotten Tomatoes it is a clear favourite with film fans. Boseman was recognised by the Golden Globes but failure to convert a nomination into an award in the Best Actor category at the National Society of Film Critics, BAFTA’s and Hollywood Critics Association does raise some concerns.

Consequently, you would be ill-advised to pile-on at such a short price and you may give some thought to Anthony Hopkins at 6/1 with 888. The veteran Welsh actor who has five previous Oscar nominations on his CV and took ‘the big one’ for his role in 1992’s Silence of the Lambs, plays a dementia sufferer in a charming French-British co-production called ‘Father’.

This movie may have failed to hit the target from four nominations at the Golden Globes but it picked-up two BAFTAs including Best Actor in a Leading Role. Like McDormand in the Actress category, 83-year-old Anthony Hopkin’s is a clear value call in this one.

Best Bet: Best Actor: Anthony Hopkins (6/1 with 888)

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