Euro 2020 Final Tips: Italy vs England Predictions & Best Odds

Jamie Casey

July 4th, 2021

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Quick Tips:

• Match to be a draw after 90 minutes – 2/1 with Bet365
• Correct score 1-1after 90 mins – 17/2 with SportNation
• Final to go to penalties – 4/1 with Bet365

Euro 2020 finalists England and Italy are both bidding to end decades of hurt by halting individual droughts when the two sides meet at Wembley on Sunday.

For Italy, the Azzurri will try to land their first European Championship since 1968 while England are hoping to win the event for the first time in what will be their first appearance in a major tournament final since the 1966 World Cup.

Having won the World Cup four times in their illustrious history, it’s somewhat remarkable that Italy have only won the Euros once – 53 years ago – although they have come close in relatively recent history having finished runners-up to France and Spain in 2000 and 2012 respectively.

As for England, only fans in their 60s are old enough to remember their last major final appearance, so it’s no wonder the country is in a state of frenzy and most football betting sites make the Three Lions favourites on account of their home advantage.

Euro 2020 Final Odds

I say most bookmakers, I mean virtually all betting sites in the UK but if you look further afield in Europe and indeed in the US you’ll find bookies making this match a 50-50 affair with many going evens (1/1) apiece on who will lift the trophy.

Feverish England fans appear to be driving their team’s odds down by piling money on football “coming home” and who can blame them? They are still yet to concede a goal from open play, with Mikkel Damsgaard's free-kick for Denmark the only blemish on Jordan Pickford’s record.

So with home advantage and an almost unbreachable defence, it’s easy to build a case for backing England, but football is rarely that simple. Below, we take a look at some of the best betting sub-markets ahead of what should be a fascinating final.

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Euro 2020 Final Correct Score Prediction

Predicting the correct score after 90 minutes on any match is notoriously difficult, yet it’s one of the most popular markets in football betting.

To get an idea of how prolific the two teams are let’s take a look at the results of the two teams after 90 minutes in their respective games so far. It’s important not to include extra-time as bookmakers will only pay out correct score winners if the score is correct at full-time of normal time.

Interestingly, both teams have scored 10 goals in six games which works out at 1.67 per game. However, the big difference is that most of Italy’s goals were scored in routine group game wins, while England have been much more fruitful in the knockout stages.

You could put that down to the quality of opposition England have faced in the knockout stages – two goals against a weak Germany team and four against an exhausted and already limited Ukraine side has taken the bad look off their group stage tally of just two goals.

Conversely, Italy have had to contend with the likes of Belgium, the number one team in FIFA’s world rankings, and Spain, who reserved their best performance of the tournament for the semi-final loss to Roberto Mancini’s side.

In terms of goals conceded in 90 minutes, Italy have only been breached twice in normal time – against Belgium and Spain – although Austria did put one past Gianluigi Donnarumma in extra-time.

As mentioned, England have only conceded once, although Pickford did not exactly look convincing when finally tested by a strong outfit in Denmark in the semis.

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With all this in mind, it’s fair to assume that this game should be low-scoring. Not only are finals usually cagey affairs, but these two teams don’t concede many and neither do they score many against top quality opposition.

It’s tempting to look at William Hill’s generous odds of 13/2 on a 0-0 draw at full-time, but there have only been three 0-0 draws at the whole tournament – a testament of how good a spectacle Euro 2020 has been.

Although England and Italy have actually been involved in two of those three goalless draws, there’s reason to believe both teams can get on the score-sheet in the final.

England have Harry Kane back in form and looking for a fifth goal of the tournament which would put him level in the golden boot race, while Italy have the likes of Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Chiesa who can produce moments of magic if given a yard of grass.

Euros Final Anytime Goalscorer Tips

• Harry Kane 13/8 (888)
• Raheem Sterling 3/1 (888)
• Lorenzo Insigne 7/2 (888)
• Federico Chiesa 4/1 (888)

When you look at the anytime goalscorer odds, it’s more difficult to see the game finishing 0-0, but I still expect the two teams to cancel each other out and therefore a final score of 1-1 – which is a best price of 17/2 with SportNation – looks like the better option.

Most other top bookmakers are offering 5/1 on a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes so SportNation’s odds really do stand out as excellent value. If you can’t choose between 0-0 or 1-1 but fancy the draw, take Bet365’s price of 2/1 on a draw at full-time.

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Euro 2020 Final Odds: Chances of Penalties?

Somebody has to lift the trophy and this preview won’t fully sit on the fence by tipping up a draw and leaving it at that. More often than not, extra-time leads to penalties, and what is an international tournament without England being involved in shoot-out drama?

England’s record in penalty shoot-outs at major tournaments is very ropey, so they’ll be relieved to have gotten to the final without having to navigate their way through penalties, but I like Bet365’s odds of 4/1 for this game to go to penalties.

When you look at the confidence the Italians displayed in their 4-2 penalty shoot-out win over Spain in the semi-final, you’d have to fancy them. Furthermore, the physically imposing figure of Donnarumma – an extremely confident young goalkeeper – strengthens the case for backing Italy in a shoot-out.

Most bookies go around 8/1 on Italy lifting the trophy after penalties in their Method of Victory market, which looks a fantastic value bet. Incidentally, England are the same price, but with a better goalkeeper and the confidence of a shoot-out win already under their belts you’d have to side with Italy should it go that far.