Next UK Prime Minister Odds: Sunak Tipped To Beat Mordaunt As Johnson Quits

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Next UK Prime Minister Odds: Sunak Tipped To Beat Mordaunt As Johnson Quits
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UK betting sites expect Rishi Sunak to be appointed the next UK prime minister - perhaps as early as Monday afternoon - following Boris Johnson’s dramatic withdrawal from the contest.

Sunak has passed the 100 votes from Tory MPs required to enter the next stage of the contest, which has already fallen from a three-horse race to two following Johnson’s withdrawal.

Penny Mordaunt is now the only other candidate who can challenge Sunak, but is scrambling to get the votes she needs by 2pm on Monday to trigger a head-to-head ballot among Conservative members.

It means Sunak looks destined to be crowned as the UK’s third prime minister within two months, and fifth since the Brexit vote in 2016.

And UK bookmakers aren’t hanging around to see if Mordaunt can pull off a surprise late surge.

Next UK Prime Minister Outright Odds

Rishi Sunak1/25Coral
Penny Mordaunt12/1William Hill

How A New Prime Minister Is Selected

The UK is about to get a new prime minister after Liz Truss sensationally stepped down just 45 days into her premiership. 

Truss managed to crash the economy, threaten the ruination of pension funds, sink the value of the pound and lose widespread support for the Tories across the country thanks to her disastrous fiscal plan.

The response from the Labour Party was to call for a UK general election, while Conservative MPs demanded her resignation. 

She duly obliged her colleagues, and triggered a short leadership contest to decide who would be the next UK prime minister.

Because the UK is a constitutional monarchy, the country doesn’t have a presidential head of state. 

Instead, the political party with the biggest majority chooses a prime minister to serve on the King’s behalf. Truss was the leader of her party, not the country, and her successor will be the same.

That successor is now almost certain to be Sunak. His odds have come in to as low as 1/25 with political betting sites after a weekend in which he began hoovering up Tory MP votes, while Mordaunt and Johnson flagged.

The process for appointing a new leader has been much shorter than the eight-week slog over the summer required to select Johnson’s successor. 

Mordaunt was first out of the gates but struggled for immediate support, while Sunak swiftly surpassed 100 votes.

Johnson flew in from a holiday in the Caribbean - remember, he is still an MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip - and hoped to be seen as the man capable of saving the Tories from electoral doom. 

But his camp was coy on the actual numbers of support he was receiving, and even though they talked a big game, he eventually scuttled away after a Saturday evening meeting with Sunak.

What happens now is that either Mordaunt gets 100 votes and she goes into a face-off with Sunak, or she doesn’t and Sunak is appointed PM on Monday. And the bookies are only expecting one outcome.

Best Politics Betting Sites

Who Will Be Prime Minister?

Of the two candidates left, betting apps reckon it is Sunak’s to lose. Here’s how he and Mordaunt shape up…

Rishi Sunak

Rishi Sunak

Sunak’s political career has been a rollercoaster. The multi-millionaire former banker, who made his money in the fall-out of the financial crash, backed Brexit and was gifted the chancellor job under Johnson.

He was ‘Mr Furlough’ as he propped up workers’ wagers through Covid-19, but then turned ‘Mr Nasty’ as he requested tax rises to pay for it back.

Sunak is a pragmatist and warned that a failure to begin paying off Covid-created debt would lead to spiralling inflation and spook the markets. Tory members didn’t like to hear this, and voted for Truss instead of Sunak to be their next PM.

Truss then triggered the economic instability Sunak predicted, and as soon as she announced her resignation the former chancellor was the favourite to take the throne.

Some Tories dislike Sunak as he is seen as the man who staged Johnson in the back and forced the former PM to quit over his numerous sleaze scandals this summer. 

Others hope his centre-right policies will stabilise the country. At 1/25, Ladbrokes reckon he’s the next PM.

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt

The former defence secretary has endured a tumultuous few months. 

Mordaunt was one of the first out of the traps when announcing her intention to stand for leader as Johnson quit in disgrace. Penny4PM was trending for a while, and she had the support of a wide range of Tory MPs.

But there were reports Sunak’s team gifted some of their support to Truss during the leadership battle, in order to shut Mordaunt out from the final pairing. It worked, but then Truss ended up beating Sunak!

Fast-forward seven weeks and we’re back again, although Mordaunt has less support this time. 

If she does surpass 100 votes then Tory MPs will hold another vote to indicate to the membership the candidate they feel should be supported.

After that, the membership will vote online. Note that one Conservative council member in Truss’ constituency complained that 20% of his local members didn’t have internet access, but It’s unlikely to come to this. 

Mordaunt is 12/1 with William Hill to be the next UK prime minister and those odds are growing all the time.

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