Next UK Prime Minister Odds: Starmer Big Favourite Over Sunak, Johnson And Wallace
Betting sites reckon Sir Keir Starmer is the overwhelming favourite to be the next UK prime minister and lead Labour to electoral victory in 2024.
Starmer has overseen a transformation of the Labour party since taking over from Jeremy Corbyn as leader in 2020.
A few months prior to his appointment, Labour had lost the December 2019 election to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives, who claimed an 80-seat majority.
Now, more than three years on, and it appears as though Labour are on the cusp of returning to power.
And UK bookmakers can’t see many other options than Starmer being PM once the 2024 election concludes.
It is a stance that is also reflected in the polls. The latest voting data from Redfield/Wilton shows Labour have opened up a 26-point lead over the Tories, and are well ahead of the Lib Dems and SNP.
It means bookmakers have had to dramatically shrink their odds on who will be the next prime minister, with Starmer now such an overwhelming favourite that there are only a handful of candidates who could rival him.
One of those is Sunak - the man in No 10 tasked with pulling the Tories away from electoral catastrophe.
But other names such as Boris Johnson and Ben Wallace are floating around, which makes for an intriguing market.
Next UK Prime Minister Outright Odds
Who Will Be Prime Minister Next?
The next UK general election isn’t due to be held until the summer of 2024.
It’s highly unlikely the Conservatives would trigger a snap election at this point, because they need every day they have to regain polling ground on Labour.
But that doesn’t mean Rishi Sunak’s job is safe for the next 15 months.
In fact, he could well be ousted by his own MPs just as Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were before him.
Therefore the bookies have had to draw up not only candidates from opposition parties who may be prime minister next, but also those from his own side.
Here are the top five candidates to be PM. Rather unsurprisingly, four are Tories.
At 2/7 with political betting sites, Starmer is deemed to have a 75% chance of being the next UK prime minister – and this will only happen if he’s voted into office.
The Labour leader has overseen a huge boost for his party in the polls, and successfully taken on three different prime ministers already.
Starmer has already seen off Johnson and Truss, and usually wins the debate when arguing with Sunak over the dispatch box. But voters aren’t yet convinced by him.
BetUK have Sunak at 3/1 to win the next election, which shows just how poorly he and his party are performing right now.
Sunak can’t seem to get any traction with voters even though he recently delivered what appears to be a better Brexit deal than the one Johnson forced through in 2019.
Sunak once rode high in the public popularity stakes thanks to his furlough scheme.
But his tax affairs and his decision to “stab Johnson in the back” last summer means some populists in the Tory party won’t forgive him.
Johnson was supposedly back when Liz Truss fell on her sword, only to be told by Sunak that he had no chance of winning the party leadership again.
So Johnson slunk away to earn thousands of pounds on the speaker circuit instead.
He is still an MP and feels wronged that he was ousted for a spate of sleaze scandals while in office.
Could Johnson be the next prime minister? Perhaps, but only if Sunak is ousted first.
That could well happen if the next Brexit deal goes up in smoke and May’s local elections are a disaster.
Make no mistake, we haven’t heard the last of Johnson and he’s 8/1 with Unibet to be the next PM.
A more likely option than May to potentially replace Sunak would be defence secretary Ben Wallace, who polls well and has a job on his hands over Russia’s invasion in Ukraine.
Wallace was an outside candidate for the leadership last summer and appears to have aspirations of one-day sitting in No 10.
He is 40/1 with 10Bet and would be a viable alternative to Sunak if the PM was booted out.
Were Labour to lose the next election then Starmer would almost certainly quit.
The leadership would then probably fall to Angela Rayner, who is one of the most astute political movers in Westminster right now.
Rayner would have a different approach to Starmer but it could well work - and Labour’s deputy would become leader if Starmer, for whatever reason, had to step down before the election.
At 50/1 with betting apps, she’s an outside shout because a lot of pieces would have to fall in the right place for her to become Labour leader, let alone PM.
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