Oscars Betting 2022: Who's Favourite in the Main Categories?

Oscars Betting 2022: Who's Favourite in the Main Categories?
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Oscars Betting Tip:


The 94th Academy Awards, celebrating the best films released between March 1 and December 31, 2021, are scheduled to take place in Los Angeles on March 27.

Voting nominations for the coveted prizes closed on January 27 and the nominations were confirmed on February 8, though we already had a good idea who would be in contention for the Oscars.

That's because the Golden Globes gave its usual strong form indicator for the destination of the so-called ‘Big Five’ Academy Awards: The Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Screenplay.

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The Globes were awarded on January 9 in a muted ceremony due to criticism and controversy over a lack of diversity among its membership, but despite the bad press it remains the best source of information when it comes to Oscars betting.

Oscars Betting Odds Taking Shape

The best betting sites have had their Oscars odds open for months and, such is the faith in the Golden Globe form, winners of the key Globes are favourites in the equivalent Academy Award markets.

One of the shortest-priced of all contenders is Will Smith in the Oscar Best Actor betting with virtually all betting apps going odds-on. It took Smith 19 years and six nominations to win his first Best Actor accolade at the Golden Globes – and that came this year for his role in King Richard.

The original Fresh Prince of Bel-Air has only had two previous nominations for Best Actor at the Academy Awards but in 2022, rated a 1/4 shot with even the most generous betting sites, he should finally get his hands on an overdue Oscar.

His potential Oscar-winning role came in the Reinaldo Marcus Green-directed King Richard, a movie where he plays the lead character – the father of tennis stars Serena and Venus Williams. The critically-acclaimed film has a 98% audience score on renowned entertainment review website Rotten Tomatoes.


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Oscar Betting Predictions: Stats Go Against Belfast

Remarkably, given Smith’s prohibitive short price, King Richard is given little chance in the Best Picture award. It is as long as 25/1 with MansionBet in a field where only two movies are in with a realistic chance: The Power of the Dog and Belfast.

The Power of the Dog won the Best Motion Picture Drama film at the 2022 Golden Globes ahead of Belfast and both films will meet head-on again at the Oscars.

The Power of the Dog, a western-style suspense film shot in New Zealand, is the clear favourite at 4/9 with most Irish bookmakers.

Belfast – a Kenneth Branagh directed film depicting his childhood in his troubled hometown during the 1960s – is currently 7/2 second favourite.

Best Picture Oscar Odds

MovieOddsBookmaker
The Power of the Dog1/2Bet365
Belfast7/2Ladbrokes
West Side Story10/1BetVictor
Licorice Pizza20/1Ladbrokes
King Richard25/1MansionBet

Worryingly for Belfast backers, the black and white movie collected just one award at the Golden Globes despite having seven nominations. West Side Story had four Globe nominations and collected three.

Since 2001, A Beautiful Mind (2001), Chicago (2002), The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003), Slumdog Millionaire (2008), The Artist (2011), Argo (2012), 12 Years a Slave (2013), Moonlight (2016), Greenbook (2018) and Nomadland (2020) have all won a Best Picture Globe and then doubled up in the Best Picture category at the Academy Awards.

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Being even more pessimistic, if Belfast was unable to collect a single award from the 11 nominations it received at the British Independent Film Awards, what chance will it have in Hollywood?

Campion Odds-On in Best Director Betting

The shortest ante-post betting favourite of all is Jane Campion in the Best Director category. The New Zealander only used a small cast and limited locations in The Power of the Dog, but critics love her work.

She is as short as 1/10 to collect a second Oscar – to accompany the one she received in 1994 for The Piano in the Best Original Screenplay section.

It’s one of the best Oscars bets if you’re looking for a near-certain winner, but few punters will be excited by the potential return on those odds.

Latest Odds: Academy Award For Best Actress

Kristen Stewart Diana

Like the Best Actor category, the market principles in the Best Actress Academy Award market do not hail from a film in contention for Best Movie.

For months, the destination of this award appeared to be a straightforward match between Nicole Kidman – for her role as Lucille Ball in Being the Ricardos – and Kristen Stewart, who depicts Diana, Princess of Wales in Spencer.

Kidman won the Golden Globe for the Best Performance in a Motion Picture (Drama section) which had made her the clear favourite, but Jessica Chastain has emerged as a strong contender for her performance in The Eyes of Tammy Faye in what is now a three-way fight.

However, Kristen Stewart - who has been pushed out to third favourite on the back of Chastain's rise to the top of the market - has had dozens of nominations for her role in Spencer from various film critic societies and is already in double figures for awards won.

The opinions of the Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association, Chicago Film Critics Association, Southeastern Film Critics Association and many other such organisations should be taken very seriously, and they suggest the 31-year-old is on track to collect her first Oscar.

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How To Bet on The Oscars

Each year, a number of novice punters are left wondering can you bet on the Oscars and the answer is yes. However, it may depend on your location.

If you’re in Ireland you can simply check out our list of the best specials and entertainment betting sites and select the bookmaker that offers most appeal to you.

In most cases you’ll need to deposit funds to your new account and verify your age, but so long as you don’t leave things to the last minute you should have plenty of time to place a bet on the Oscars, which take place on March 27, 2022.

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