Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Tips: 2023 Betting Preview & Trends

The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase is a Grade 1 staying chase for future Gold Cup horses that attracts plenty of betting activity on day two of the Cheltenham Festival.

The 2021 edition of this famous race had its smallest ever field of just six runners but produced an outstanding winner in the shape of Monkfish, who was vying for 2022 Gold Cup betting favouritism before suffering a tendon injury that sidelined him for the entire season.

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Tips

• Back Fury Road each-way - 14/1 with 888sport

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Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Runners in Focus

Here's an in-depth look at some of the leading contenders for the 2022 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase:

Bravemansgame Sets the Standard for the Home Team

Bravemansgame was no match for Bob Olinger in last year’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle but this big scopey gelding was always going to be a better chaser than hurdler, even though he was a Grade 1 winner over the smaller obstacles.

That’s exactly how it has panned out because he’s a perfect 3-3 over fences. His seven-and-a-half length victory over Ahoy Senor in the Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day was impressive. He now occupies second spot in ante-post Brown Advisory Novices' Chase odds lists.

Bravemansgame seemingly represents the biggest threat, however punters need to be careful about wading into this hugely talented seven-year-old because trainer Paul Nicholls indicated after his Kempton success that Cheltenham wasn’t necessarily the main target for this horse.

The 12-time champion trainer still looks set to be represented in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase because the progressive Threeunderthrufive is apparently likely to head to this three-mile contest, rather than going down the National Hunt Chase route.

His jumping was a joy to behold at Warwick where he was just too classy for Grade 2 rivals, leading them a merry dance from the outset, and he could prove dangerous if allowed to settle into a nice rhythm on the front end at Cheltenham. A small field would suit him.

Read More: Check out the best Cheltenham offers

Capodanno on the up

Capodanno was a decent hurdler (wide margin winner of a three-mile handicap at Punchestown) without setting the world alight but he already looks like becoming a better chaser. The JP McManus-owned son of Manduro acquitted himself extremely well when chasing home Bob Olinger at Punchestown in January.

That keeping-on effort, in which he finished a mile clear of the remainder in second, was hugely promising. He failed to back that up in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Novice Chase at Leopardstown, however, unseating Mark Walsh following a mistake at the fifth fence.

Still, there is no doubt that he’s a potential improver and that makes him dangerous at around 7/1 in ante-post odds lists with the best bookmakers.

Fury proven at the Top Table

Unlike Capodanno, Fury Road has already proven himself at Grade 1 level after he ran right away from some high-class rivals in the Neville Hotel Novice Chase at Leopardstown.

He is a lot more exposed than some of the higher-profile contenders for this festival contest and that may go some way to explaining why he is still a double-figure price despite having won a Grade 1 three-mile chase by seven lengths.

There was no fluke about that performance, indeed his jockey felt that he was dossing in front, and we are likely to see him improve again in a stronger-run contest at Prestbury Park. Runner-up Run Wild Fred heads ante-post National Hunt Chase betting lists and appears to be highly regarded, so Fury Road must have a serious level of ability to give him a beating.

It’s a concern that Fury Road ran so abysmally in last season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (pulled up) and put in a poor showing in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at Leopardstown - but his narrow defeat to Monkfish in the 2020 Albert Bartlett confirms that he’s capable of producing high-class form on the biggest stage of all, so he rates a solid contender to give Gordon Elliott a first Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase success.

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Don’t Write off Senor

Ahoy Senor was comprehensively seen off by Bravemansgame at Kempton on Boxing Day but bounced back with a decisive win in the Grade 2 William Hill Towton Novices' Chase in February.

Lucinda Russell’s stable star was far too good for Bravemansgame in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle last April and he looked a class act when storming to a 31-length Grade 2 success over fences at Newbury.

His most recent success at Wetherby, by five-and-a-half lengths, saw his price slashed from 7/1 to 9/2 in odds lists for the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase.

He is also in for the Gold Cup but, after that victory, trainer Lucinda Russell said: "He'll probably go for the Brown Advisory. He's still a novice; he's got an immense talent but we're still crafting him.

"We didn't lose anything in defeat at Kempton and if we'd gone here straight from his win at Newbury we wouldn't have learned anything, but Kempton taught us something."

Read More: Turners Novices' Chase Tips, Betting Preview & Trends

Dusart Looks Best of Henderson’s Entries

Nicky Henderson has won this race four times since the turn of the century and the pick of his five entries in 2022 looks to be the lightly-raced Dusart. The seven-year-old has only been seen four times on a racecourse but connections clearly think a lot of him because he was sent off joint-favourite for a Grade 1 event at Aintree in 2021 on just his second career start.

Despite running a huge race in third, connections have wasted no time in switching him to fences and he looked a staying chaser to keep on the right side of when keeping on strongly to beat a 135-rated rival by five lengths despite jumping to his left throughout.

His lack of experience is a potential drawback but the son of Flemensfirth has undoubted potential and it would look significant should he line up on the day.

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Odds

• *Odds correct as of 15/03/2022 - For full latest odds head over to 888sport

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Trends

• Stay on your feet: Horses like Champ and Topofthegame have proven in recent times that having previously fallen in a chase is no barrier to success in this race but no horse has won the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase having fallen more than once.
• Class counts: The last seven Brown Advisory winners were rated at least 150.
• Winning form counts: Nearly all winners of this race have already scored in a Graded level chase. The one outlier to that rule is 2019 winner Topofthegame, who is the only Brown Advisory winner this century that headed to Cheltenham having not previously won over fences.
• Peak age: Seven-year-olds have been utterly dominant this century, winning 16 editions.
• Course form crucial: 11 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, often in one of the big staying hurdle races at the previous year’s festival.
• Market pointers: This isn’t a race that has thrown up shocks in recent years. Only one of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure price. Five of the last six winners have returned an SP of 4/1 or shorter.

Recent Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Winners

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Verdict

The Paul Nicholls-trained duo Bravemansgame and Threeunderthrufive clearly need respecting.

But FURY ROAD looks rock-solid as an impressive Grade 1 winning novice chaser over three miles and he looks a value Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase play at 12/1 with FansBet.

His hurdles career didn’t pan out as expected but he’s really hitting his straps over the bigger obstacles and he looks versatile ground-wise, which can be important going into a festival.

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