National Hunt Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting
BEST 2021 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE TRENDS
- Run at Cheltenham before
- Run at least three times in novice chases
- Run over at least 3m before - preferably won
- Finished in first three no more than three runs ago
- Officially rated 139 or more
Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 National Hunt Chase? Follow These Trends:
Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of one of Cheltenham's most historic tests, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.
What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's National Hunt Chase. Scroll down to find out how the trends did last year, and read full details of all the other National Hunt Chase trends, beyond the top five.
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Did Trends Win Last Year's National Hunt Chase?
The 2020 National Hunt Chase trends drew up a shortlist of four horses, including the first and second finishers in the Festival's longest race.
Lord Du Mesnil took second having ticked all the 'Top 5' boxes, and fitted in to all the top '15-Year' and '10-Year' trends. He had no negatives.
Winner Ravenhill had to be respected as top race trainer Gordon Elliott's only runner, but it was a worry that he had not run for 107 days, and that his last run was a fall.
Cheltenham betting favourite Carefully Selected was a stronger trends, showing strong Cheltenham form, and having proven himself in Graded company over fences.
He was also trained by top race trainer Willie Mullins, but was no danger to the front pair when unseated his rider at the last.
Distant Third Lamanver Pippin had only run in two chases, and had not even been tried at 3m.
KEY NATIONAL HUNT CHASE TRENDS
15-year-trends
The last 15 winners…
- Were aged up to 10
- Finished in the first three in one of their last three starts
- Had run at least four times in the last 12 months
- Had run at least three times in a novice chase
10-year-trends
The last 10 winners…
- Were officially rated no lower than 139
- Had two or more starts that season
- Had won at least one hurdle race
- Had run at least three times over fences, three of the last six running 10 times
Nine of the last 10 winners…
- Did not run in a handicap last time out (exception Ravenhill in 2020)
- Had run over at least 3m before, 8/10 winners winning at least once
Eight of the last 10 winners…
- Had won a chase before
- Last ran no more than 78 days ago
- Had won that season
Seven of the last 10 winners…
- Did not win last time out
- Had never won a Graded race before
- Were officially rated 145 or more
- Had run at least five times over fences
- Had run at Cheltenham before, two winning
The last 30 win and place positions
30/30 placed horses
- Had run in at least two novice chases
29/30 placed horses
- Were officially rated 133+
- Had three or more starts in past 12 months
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KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)
(Last Graded race contested prior to the National Hunt Chase)
| Key Race | Racecourse | Dist. | Month | Winners | Place Finishers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reynoldstown Novice Chase (G2) | Ascot | 3m | February | Minella Rocco (2016) | Ms Parfois (2018) |
| Flogas Novice Chase (G1) | Leopardstown | 2m5f | February | Rathvinden (2018) | None |
| Altcar Novice Chase (G2) | Haydock | 2m4f | January | Le Breuil (2019) | Jerrysback (2019) |
| Ten Up Novice Chase (G2) | Navan | 3m | February | None | Haymount (2017), Measureofmydreams (2016), Tofino Bay (2013), Four Commanders (2012) |
| January Novice Chase (G3) | Naas | 3m | January | None | Discorama (2019) |
| Towton Novice Chase (G2) | Wetherby | 3m | February | None | Native River (2016) |
KEY NATIONAL HUNT CHASE TRAINERS (10 years)
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Win% | P/L | Places |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Elliott | 9 | 4 | 44 | 36.00 | - |
| Willie Mullins | 15 | 2 | 13 | -6.25 | 3 |
| Alan King | 7 | 1 | 14 | 2.00 | 1 |
How Ravenhill Won 2020's National Hunt Chase
Jockey Jamie Codd had few concerns as he steered Ravenhill to a two and a quarter length win in the 2020 National Hunt Chase.
The 10-year-old took the lead from Lord Du Mesnil at the penultimate fence, and when that rival blundered the last, he skipped up the hill to victory.
5.30 CHELTENHAM - 2020 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE RESULT
- Ravenhill 12/1
- Lord Du Mesnil 11/2
- Lamanver Pippin 33/1
It was Codd's third win in the Cheltenham Festival's longest race, and provided trainer Gordon Elliott with his fourth victory in the Grade 2, from just nine runners.
Jumping let down 10/11 favourite Carefully Selected as he unseated his rider at the last, making his final mistake in a series of poor efforts.
His exit left Lamanver Pippin clear third, with the Derek O'Connor-ridded Forza Milan taking an even more distant fourth position.
Cheltenham 2021 Tuesday Schedule
13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle
14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy
14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase
15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE
16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
17:30 - National Hunt Novices' Chase
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