Trump Odds Leads Biden For 2024 As Republicans Plan To Back Him
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Betting sites believe Donald Trump is the firm favourite to win the 2024 US election after slashing his odds yet again in the battle with Joe Biden.
Trump, 77, is desperate to return to the White House, having lost the last election by more than seven million votes to rival Biden.
The businessman wasted little time gearing up the MAGA machine after his electoral defeat and in recent months has seen his support extend beyond his populist base.
Most presidential polls now have Trump leading Biden, some by as much as eight points.
The New Yorker may be facing more than 90 criminal charges across four cases in the coming year, but that hasn’t prevented him from dominating both the presidential and the GOP polls.
He is expected to cruise to the party nomination next spring and gain further support as Republicans rally round him.
UK bookmakers monitoring the 2024 US presidential election odds were initially reluctant to give Trump the lead against incumbent Biden.
However, the surge of bets on the former president means he is now the firm favourite for victory.
Donald Trump Odds
According to political betting sites, Trump has a 44.4% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election.
Those odds of 5/4 shifted after December’s Republican debate, where Trump’s rivals gave their pitch for the party nomination in the ex-president’s absence.
Trump has refused to partake in any party debates, claiming he deserves to be given the nomination now due to his high poll ratings.
His closest rival for the Republican nomination, Nikki Haley, has seen her odds widen since the debate.
Compare this to Biden, who has a one-in-three chance of winning the next election at odds of 2/1.
That price doesn’t look to be shifting much as Biden struggles to rekindle his woeful poll ratings.
Trump’s low odds are the result of two metrics. The first is his polling figures, which put him way ahead of any other Republican candidate for the party nomination, and place him ahead of Biden.
The second is the betting data. A whopping 56% of all bets on the 2024 US election are backing Trump for president, Biden’s share is 18%.
When bookies receive a flurry of bets on one outcome they’re quick to shrink those odds. This is what’s happened with Trump.
Will Trump Win In 2024?
One could therefore argue that the odds are only indicative of what punters think will happen, and not the polls.
However, betting apps were far more accurate than pollsters in the 2016 presidential election when Trump beat Hillary Clinton.
They were also spot on when gauging Biden’s likelihood of winning the 2020 contest.
Trump is well placed to win in 2024. Remarkably, his poll ratings shoot up whenever he’s in court – be it for a sexual abuse trial, or a criminal trial – and his odds respond in kind.
The betting over the GOP candidacy is a perfect example of Trump’s popularity in action.
He was Evens to win the nomination back in the summer but used subsequent court hearings as stump speech opportunities.
His odds have come crashing down and betting sites now have him at 1/7 to get the party nomination.
That’s despite the possibility that he faces jail time over criminal charges alleged against him, all of which he denies.
By contrast, Haley is now out at 8/1 for the GOP pick, and Ron DeSantis - once the frontrunner - is 20/1 with betting sites.
Trump surely has the party nomination wrapped up. The big question is whether he can maintain the poll pace until November 2024.
Biden’s reputation can’t fall much further, and Democrats hope that by the spring the US economy has turned a corner.
Voters are expected to vote with their wallets in this election and Biden needs to point to economic growth as the promise for his second term.
Trump, never shy of championing his business credentials, argues he’s the only person to revive the US economy.
He currently leads in five critical swing states and that could be enough to win him the election.
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