Betting Opens on Joe Biden Completing Full Term of Presidency
Betting sites have stabilised their odds on Joe Biden completing his first term as US president, but remain doubtful he will beat Donald Trump in the 2024 election this November.
President Biden has grappled with accusations he is too old to run the country throughout his first term in office.
His decision to run for four more years surprised many analysts who believed, at the age of 81, he would hand over stewardship of the Democratic party to a younger generation.
However, persistent bad polling for his vice president Kamala Harris means there is no clear succession plan for Mr Biden.
This has led to him doubling down on the Democratic primaries, and his team is now gearing up for a monumental election campaign this summer.
UK bookmakers generally believe Mr Biden will reach the end of his first term despite his age. Yet no-one is convinced he will beat Mr Trump at the ballot box later this year.
Joe Biden Odds
According to betting apps, Biden now has an 87% chance of completing his term as US president. There’s very little chance of him being impeached before then, and his health appears to be holding up.
Heads are instead turning to November 5 following big wins for Mr Biden and Mr Trump during Super Tuesday – the landmark date in both the Democratic and Republican primary election process.
With Biden vs Trump II now on the cards, bookmakers are scrambling to adjust their odds. Remarkably, they still price Mr Biden as low as 7/4 (36.4% chance) to win the next election, while Mr Trump is in at 5/6 (54.5%).
The reason Mr Biden is trailing his adversary is due to the polls and betting support for Mr Trump. Polling data suggests the pair are neck-and-neck of 45% each.
Mr Trump recently fell a percentage point amid concerns among Republicans that his party nomination didn’t get support from outside of MAGA voters.
So, why are Mr Trump’s odds comparatively short? Because bettors are backing him and not the other guy. A stunning 59.5% of all bets in this market back Mr Trump for president.
Until recently Mr Biden was struggling for more than 20% of the market share.
The sheer weight on Mr Trump drives his price down, at a time when bettors have fled Mr Biden. His odds in the past six months have been as wide as 7/2 with leading political betting sites.
Will Biden Beat Trump?
It’s natural, then, that the odds will eventually correct themselves and should come in line with the polls. After all, punters are starting to see value in the Biden bet and his price is slowly coming in.
Of course, the 2024 US election won’t be settled on the betting lines. The next nine months are set to be fraught with speeches, accusatory language, court cases, and attack ads. Mr Trump is fighting not just for the presidency, but his legacy.
The two men are waging their own wars, desperate to get voters on side. Mr Biden has a country to run, international conflicts to oversee, and an economy to stabilise. He also has to campaign with enough verve to convince voters he’s up to the job.
Mr Trump has four court cases looming, is appealing against an $83.3m defamation case, has been ordered to pay $355m in a New York court, and is trying to appeal to more than right-wing voters.
Yet he has the media spotlight and it’s this that is driving his improved polling figures.
Interestingly, the days of politicians debating each other and setting out policy proposals appear to be over. Any TV debates between the pair will likely descend into barbarous words and generalities, rather than actual policy detail.
America is being asked to vote for a personality, not a policy maker. This makes it even harder to predict who will win in November because public perception can sway in an instant.
For now, the bookies give Mr Biden a fighting chance and will drop their odds if enough punters back him. Yet Mr Trump is holding the stronger cards here, it seems, as we inch towards the vote.
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