Donald Trump 2024 Odds: Former President Leads Kamala Harris
UK betting sites have widened their odds on Donald Trump being the next US president in the aftermath of Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket.
However, Mr Trump remains the firm favourite to win the election in November despite his odds worsening over the past few days.
The Republicans have watched on with interest as the Democrats reshape the election just four months out from the big day.
Mr Biden’s seemingly reluctant decision to bow out of the race has triggered a surge in Democrat support over the past few days.
Ms Harris has already raised more than $100m in campaign funds since securing the backing of party delegates.
While the formalities are still to be outlined, it’s clear that Ms Harris will take on Mr Trump this autumn.
The Republican figurehead boasts a polling lead over his new challenger, but new betting sites are starting to question his supposed position of strength.
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Donald Trump Odds
Indeed, there was a point a few weeks back when Mr Trump was priced as short as 1/3 on political betting sites to win the election.
Those odds carried an implied probability of 75% and were based on the poll boost Mr Trump earned after nearly being assassinated and apathy towards Mr Biden.
Mr Trump seemed confident heading into the Republican convention and chose JD Vance – a 39-year-old Ohio senator considered the future of the MAGA movement – as his running mate.
That seemed a sensible option before Mr Biden stepped down.
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The GOP figured they could win the election by doubling down on their MAGA rhetoric, rather than spreading the ticket to incorporate other sectors of the electorate.
The move doesn’t seem so sensible now. Ms Harris beats Mr Trump on issues like abortion, welfare and international relations. JD Vance does nothing to widen the Republican offer.
No wonder, then, Mr Trump’s new odds have inflated to 4/7 at BetVictor. That still implies a 63.6% chance of winning, but it’s a big cut in a little under two weeks.
Meanwhile, the Harris odds sit at 6/4. Mr Biden hadn’t enjoyed odds like that for months.
Will Trump Beat Harris?
The focus now is on how Mr Trump responds to the growing support across the Democratic party.
The immediate response from the GOP has been to tack Ms Harris to the same problems that have dogged the Biden administration.
Namely, immigration. Their argument remains that life was better under the 2016-2020 Trump regime than the four years since.
Ms Harris, though, is writing a different narrative. Democrats are starting to champion what they perceive as successes over the Biden first term.
Keeping inflation down, facing up to Russian aggression, growing the economy and investing in public infrastructure.
Who wins the argument remains to be seen. Mr Trump can use all the superlatives he likes, but Ms Harris doesn’t have the baggage of, say, Hillary Clinton’s email scandal, or Joe Biden’s business dealings to focus on.
The polls will certainly narrow in the coming weeks and much of the focus will fall on those core swing states.
If Ms Harris selects a running mate from Pennsylvania or Michigan then she could even steal a lead over Mr Trump.
In fact, a snap Reuters/Ipsos poll has already suggested Ms Harris has a two-point lead over the Trump campaign. Whether the odds follow remains to be seen.
Bettors have persistently backed Mr Trump to win this election ever since America’s disastrous withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2021 ruined Mr Biden’s reputation among voters.
Around 55% of the betting market still sides with Mr Trump, who can be backed at 4/5 on betting apps. His current price may be an anomaly that is yet to settle back down.
If it aligns with the polls then bettors could start inching towards Ms Harris, whose odds are almost certain to narrow over the coming week.
The US election could well be a coin toss this November.
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