Ron DeSantis Makes Small Gain On Donald Trump In 2024 US Election Odds

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However, in recent months his odds have worsened as Trump and Biden’s positions have solidified.

Indeed, right now the Florida governor is the third favourite to win the Oval Office next year.

But bookies have at least responded to DeSantis’ campaign launch with an obligatory cutting of his odds - a reduction that has caused some ripples in this market.

2024 US Presidential Election Odds

Tuesday 6th June 2023

	% Chance		£30	£30	£30	£20	£20	£30	£20	£40

Joe Biden	38.10%	--	13/8	6/4	6/4	6/4	6/4	6/4	--	6/4
Donald Trump	28.57%	--	12/5	12/5	12/5	5/2	9/4	9/4	--	9/4
Ron Desantis	16.67%	--	4/1	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	--	5/1
Robert Kennedy Jr	5.26%	--	14/1	12/1	14/1	16/1	14/1	16/1	--	18/1
Kamala Harris	2.44%	--	25/1	28/1	33/1	33/1	22/1	33/1	--	40/1

Team % Chance Best Odds

Joe Biden

38.10%

13/8

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Donald Trump

28.57%

5/2

5/2

12/5

12/5

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12/5

9/4

9/4

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9/4

Ron Desantis

16.67%

5/1

5/1

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4/1

Robert Kennedy Jr

5.26%

18/1

18/1

16/1

16/1

14/1

14/1

14/1

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12/1

Kamala Harris

2.44%

40/1

40/1

33/1

33/1

33/1

28/1

25/1

22/1

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Ron DeSantis Odds

Political betting sites have cut DeSantis’ presidential odds from 5/1 to 4/1 off the back of his Twitter announcement.

The social media experiment didn’t fully pay off: DeSantis was left waiting 20 minutes to discuss his candidacy with Elon Musk following a technical error. It made both the politician and the businessman look amateur.

DeSantis swiftly moved on to Fox News following the chat with Musk and arguably shored up his support by ticking all the boxes Fox viewers needed: low taxes, law and order, anti-abortion rhetoric, and lapse gun control laws.

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But even with the Fox bump, DeSantis’ launch was a disaster. Both Biden and Trump mocked him, and Twitter users were unforgiving of how the Twitter Spaces debacle had played out.

However, his odds shift indicates an implied probability boost from 16.7% to 20%.

It’s roughly the same jump Haley got when she announced she was running for president, before her odds bounced back and left her in an even worse position than before. The same could happen to DeSantis.

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2024 US Presidential Election Betting

The problem for DeSantis is that he’s fighting two fronts, and might not even win the first.

His odds are much higher than Trump’s because the former president has a double-digit poll lead over his rival across GOP voters.

How can DeSantis capture the support of Republicans who are wedded to Trump despite the court cases, FBI investigations and sleaze allegations that hang around his neck?

DeSantis has tried to move for the centre ground but there appears little appetite for this on the American right. It’s Trumpism that is driving support, donations and media ad revenues, just as it did in 2016.

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Trump is 5/2 with Ladbrokes to win the presidency, and Biden 6/4. Their odds are unlikely to change much until Trump wins the GOP pick, at which point he could come in ahead of Biden next summer.

DeSantis, meanwhile, is out at 11/4 to top the Republican ticket. His odds can’t get anywhere near the 1/2 price most betting apps have on Trump.

These GOP primaries are Trump’s to lose, and it doesn’t look like he’ll be beaten easily.

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Can DeSantis Win The Election?

There is still a long road to run before the 2024 US presidential election, and DeSantis has further to go than his rivals.

Trump and Biden have the benefit of voters knowing what they’re about - but DeSantis has to sell himself every time he’s in front of a camera.

He doesn’t appear to be winning the hearts of Americans. He has most recently gone after Disney over the Florida-based company’s decision to include a gay couple in one of its kids shows.

He’s slammed “leftism” and is trying to apply pressure on the corporation, but is not succeeding. The fall-out is that Trump is free to attack “woke” Disney and brand DeSantis a failure - it’s easy pickings for the former president.

Established 2022

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