A History of Statistics in The Premier League at Christmas
As the odds on betting sites show, the 2023/24 Premier League is shaping up to have one of the hardest fought title races it has ever seen. Any one of three teams could be top of the tree on Christmas Day this year.
Going into the final round of fixtures before the big day, Arsenal have 39 points while Liverpool and Aston Villa are one behind them. To add spice to this festive occasion, the Gunners travel to Anfield - a draw there may see Villa top the Christmas standings, as they host struggling Sheffield United on December 22.
Fans of these teams won’t be getting carried away, whichever club leads the table at Christmas.
Football betting sites still have fourth placed Manchester City as title favourites for this season. Pep Guardiola’s side are well versed at coming back stronger in the second half of campaigns, as we shall see.
Secondly, the Premier League leaders at Christmas have repeatedly failed to lift the title in recent times. Last season provides an excellent example, as Arsenal were five points clear of City yet finished the campaign that same margin behind the Citizens.
The mid-season World Cup last year ensured only 14 or 15 matches had been played by Christmas, meaning 2022/23 was an unusual case.
It was similar two years earlier, as the pandemic had led the 2020/21 season to begin late, but the outcome was largely the same in that City were not top on December 25 but were when all 38 matches had been played.
In that instance they reeled in Liverpool, just as they did in 2018/19 when the Reds were four points clear on Christmas Day.
City have not looked at their best this season but being adrift of the leaders at this stage will not overly concern them when they have repeatedly roared back to take the title in seasons past. They know it, and so do the teams ahead of them at this stage.
Times Top Of The Table At Christmas
The above table illustrates how misleading it can be to be top of the table when tucking into the Christmas turkey.
Liverpool only have one Premier League title to show for the six previous occasions they have led the table on December 25.
Two of their rivals in blue illustrate the other side of the Christmas coin. Both Chelsea and Manchester City have more Premier League titles than Liverpool, and both have won the championship every time they have been top on Christmas Day.
In fact, the Blues from West London have not yet been champions of the Premier League without leading the way at Christmas, whereas City have seven titles in the last 12 years having only topped the standings going into the Boxing Day fixtures three times.
They are the masters of stringing together lengthy streaks of victories in the second half of seasons.
History shows a team essentially has a ‘coin flip’ chance of going all the way if they are top of the league at Christmas. Sixteen of the eventual champions have achieved this across the 31 completed Premier League seasons.
Three Horse Race For The 2023-24 Premier League Title?
The leading Premier League betting sites are making it a three-horse race for the title this season, yet one of the current top three is not one of the market leaders.
The average of odds from over 20 UK bookmakers imply that Aston Villa - who may be top on Christmas Day 2023 - have just a 6.4% chance of winning the league. As they finished seventh last season, this is understandable. It is rare to come from so far back to win the title.
Manchester City remain favourites, though they have gone from odds-on to odds-against in recent weeks after having their poorest six-game run under Pep Guardiola. The defending champions are given a 38.4% chance of winning a fourth successive title, ahead of Arsenal (26.3%) and Liverpool (23.9%).
It looks set to be a tight race. We have seen closer battles at this stage of the season in the past though. Back in 2013/14 there were five clubs separated by just two points on December 25.
Liverpool and Arsenal were in pole position with 36 points, Manchester City had 35 while Chelsea and Everton were a point further back.
It was City who took the crown in May 2014, though, with Liverpool two points adrift and Chelsea and Arsenal rounding off the top four.
Closest Title Races At Christmas
2013 - 2 points between 5 teams
2010 - 3 points between 4 teams
2003 - 1 point between 3 teams
2001 - 3 points between 3 teams
The Christmas top three in 2023 will be separated by somewhere between one and four points depending on results in match week 18. It will be among the closest leading packs at this time of year that the Premier League will have seen.
In 2010, there were four teams in close contention at Christmas. Manchester United led the way with 34 points, Arsenal and Manchester City had 32 while reigning champions Chelsea were a point further back.
Sir Alex Ferguson’s side held their nerve to collect a 12th Premier League title, and 19th overall.
United added another two years later in his final season and remain the most successful club in English league history.
Twenty years ago, we had the same Christmas scenario which we may see this season, three teams separated by a single point. United were again top, with 40 points, while Arsenal and Chelsea had 39, snapping at their heels.
What nobody knew at that point was that the Gunners would remain unbeaten throughout the campaign, becoming Invincibles and winning the league in the process.
Newcastle United haven’t been champions for almost a century, although the heavy investment by their owners will look to end that lengthy drought.
They have been top of the table at Christmas in the Premier League era though. In both 1995 and 2001 the Magpies led the way on December 25, only to be eventually overtaken both times.
United famously overhauled Newcastle’s 10-point festive advantage in the earlier example, with Arsenal recovering to earn Arsene Wenger’s second Premier League crown six years later.
Blades, Clarets And Hatters Battling Against History
It won’t surprise you to learn that being bottom of the table on Christmas Day almost inevitably spells doom.
The relegation zone is certain to be filled with the three newly promoted sides this year, with their results in the final round of games before Christmas determining which will be in 20th place.
Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United will hope to draw inspiration from the bottom three from last Christmas, though doing so comes with a slight caveat.
Wolves were bottom last December 25 and Nottingham Forest 18th, yet both stayed up. However, the winter World Cup meant fewer fixtures than normal had been played, with only 14 or 15 in the book when Christmas came around.
More telling is that in the six seasons prior to that, the bottom side went on to be relegated every time. Before Wolves, only three of 30 teams who were propping up the rest when opening their presents stayed up.
If you’re considering a wager on the Premier League relegation market, it’s vitally important to bear this in mind.
Three Teams That Survived After Being Bottom At Christmas
West Brom – 2004
Sunderland – 2013
Leicester – 2014
The struggling teams in 2023/24 have a benchmark for which to aim for at Christmas if seasons past offer any indication. All three bottom sides which stayed up were in double figures for points on December 25.
West Bromwich Albion had 10 points after 17 matches in 2004 and occupied 20th place on Christmas Day.
It took a dramatic final day win to seal their safety, but they became the first team in the Premier League era to stay up after being at the foot of the table when Santa came a-calling.
Nine years later, Sunderland also had 10 points from 17 games when bottom at Christmas, which was the exact same position in which Leicester found themselves the following season.
Remarkably, both recovered to finish 14th, with the Foxes ascending far higher the campaign after as they sealed the unlikeliest title win in English football history.
Going into the final round of fixtures this year, Sheffield United and Burnley have eight points while Luton have accumulated nine. Having at least 10 at Christmas is within all their grasps.
It isn’t just bottom-placed sides at Christmas who struggle to preserve their Premier League status, but all teams in the relegation places.
There has not been any season since the rebranding of the top flight in 1992 in which the teams occupying the drop zone on December 25 all stayed up.
The relegation odds on betting apps for 2023/24 suggest this pattern is unlikely to be broken this season, with the current bottom three the leading contenders for relegation.
All three teams in those positions at Christmas 2020 went down that season and it would not be a surprise if the same occurred next May.
In the bottom three at Christmas and relegated:
57 of 97 (58.8%)
In the bottom three at Christmas and survived:
40 of 97 (41.2%)
While it is looking unlikely in 2023/24, the competitive nature of the Premier League shows that teams that looked relatively comfortable at Christmas can still go down.
Norwich City provided the best example back in 1994. Despite being seventh in the table at Christmas, the Canaries went on to be relegated and that occurred when the division contained 22 teams.
Far more recently, Leicester City were 13th last season and now find themselves in the Championship.
The table was more compacted than it is this term, but there is certainly a warning sign there for teams who might think they are already safe for 2023/24.
