A History of Statistics in The Premier League at Christmas

A History of Statistics in The Premier League at Christmas
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Arsenal will be top of the Premier League 2022-23 standings on Christmas Day, although all 20 teams are in the unusual position of having played just fourteen or fifteen games as we enter the festive period.

Due to the decision to switch the 2022 World Cup to a winter tournament, it led to the domestic campaign being paused in early November, with the Gunners sitting top of the table and holding a five-point advantage over champions Manchester City.

Arsenal fans aren’t getting too carried away at the moment despite their lofty position. 

Firstly, the best betting sites still make it highly probable that the Cityzens will have leapfrogged the North London side before the end of the season.

Secondly, we have seen Premier League leaders at Christmas falter in recent times. 

For example, Liverpool enjoyed a four-point advantage during the 2018/19 season before eventually being reeled in by Manchester City.

Two seasons ago, the Reds were five points clear but Pep Guardiola’s side showed their nerve during the business end of the campaign to become champions. 

City’s squad have the knowhow in this position of chasing a league leader and it’s an unusual situation for Arsenal to find themselves.

Times Top of The Table at Christmas

TeamTop At Christmas Tally
Man Utd7
Liverpool6
Chelsea5
Newcastle2
Arsenal3
Man City3
Norwich1
Blackburn1
Aston Villa1
Leeds1
Leicester1

It’s pretty crazy that Manchester City have only been Christmas table-toppers three times since the inaugural 1992-93 season considering that the north-west side have recorded twice as many triumphs.

It is clear that City have been able to keep their nerve and string together a number of wins during the second half of respective campaigns and that’s despite competing hard in the Champions League on several occasions.

The above table won’t make for happy reading if you’re a Liverpool supporter considering that they have a solitary Premier League title to show for their six Christmas Day leads, with that coming when enjoying a runaway success during the 2019-20 season.



Manchester City currently boast a 100% record when it comes to being top before the Boxing Day fixtures and managing to retain the number one position. 

It should also be noted that Chelsea have been able to turn the screw on each of the five occasions that they have led the chasing pack at Christmas, with the Blues becoming champions each time.

We now have 30 completed Premier League seasons and sixteen of the teams who have led the way at Christmas have gone on to land the title. 

The current campaign has featured the smallest number of matches played before the festive period and that means the majority of games are still to take place.

Premier League - Winner
Wednesday 8th February 2023
Coral BetVictor William Hill Unibet Ladbrokes Paddy Power Bet365
 
% Chance
Arsenal FC 59.88% 8/13 1/2 4/6
--
8/13 8/13 8/13
Manchester City 34.78% 6/4 15/8 6/4
--
6/4 9/5 7/4
Manchester United 5.88% 14/1 10/1 14/1
--
14/1 11/1 16/1
Newcastle United 0.99% 66/1 80/1 100/1
--
66/1 50/1 100/1
Tottenham Hotspur 0.33% 250/1 300/1 250/1
--
250/1 250/1 250/1
Liverpool FC 0.13% 500/1 750/1 250/1
--
500/1 400/1 750/1
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Two Horse Race for the 2022-23 Premier League Title?

The leading Premier League betting sites are making it a two-horse race this season as far as the title is concerned. 

While it’s been Manchester City and Liverpool regularly duking it out over the past few years, Arsenal are the new kids on the block. 

That’s despite the Gunners not finishing in the top three in any of the previous six seasons.

However, when it comes to the closest title race in Premier League history, then the 2013/14 season incredibly saw five teams being separated by just two points at Christmas. 

Liverpool and Arsenal were joint leaders on 36 points, with Manchester City a point further back, while Chelsea and Everton both had 34 points.

Come the end of the season, it was City who were celebrating their second Premier League title and fourth top-flight title in their history. 

Liverpool finished second, two points behind City while the Gunners finished fourth.

Closest title races at Christmas

2013 - 2 points between 5 teams
2010 - 3 points between 4 teams
2003 - 1 point between 3 teams
2001 - 3 points between 3 teams

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In 2010, four teams were separated by just three points. Manchester United were the front runners with 34 points on Christmas Day, two points clear of Arsenal and their neighbours City, while Chelsea were a point further back in fourth spot.

United held on to the top spot for the remainder of the season to win their 12th Premier League title and their 19th in total which made them the most successful team in England’s top flight. 

It’s a record they continue to hold, with the 2012-13 triumph putting them on a tally of 20.

In 2003, the top three teams at Christmas were separated by just one point. Manchester United were top on 40 points, one clear of Arsenal and Chelsea who both had 39 points. 

When it came to the final standings, Arsenal managed to win the title, with Chelsea second and United trailing in third.

Newcastle United have never won a modern-day Premier League title although they could be knocking on the door to change this statistic over the coming campaigns. 

It’s been nearly 20 years since the Magpies were regularly challenging for major domestic honours and they have been top on Christmas Day on two occasions.

On Christmas Day 2001, the Magpies were flying high at the top of the table with Arsenal and Liverpool leading the chasing pack. 

But six years after Kevin Keegan’s side blew a 10-point lead at Christmas time, Bobby Robson’s team surrendered a three-point advantage as Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal claimed their second Premier League title and 12th overall while Newcastle finished fourth.

Premier League - Relegation
Wednesday 8th February 2023
Coral BetVictor William Hill Unibet Ladbrokes Paddy Power Bet365
 
% Chance
AFC Bournemouth 81.97% 2/9
--
1/6
--
2/9
--
1/5
Southampton FC 71.43% 2/5
--
2/5
--
2/5
--
4/11
Everton FC 45.45% 6/5
--
6/5
--
6/5
--
6/5
Leeds United 33.33% 15/8
--
7/4
--
15/8
--
2/1
Nottingham Forest 25.00% 3/1
--
3/1
--
3/1
--
11/4
Wolverhampton Wanderers 20.00% 3/1
--
4/1
--
3/1
--
7/2
Leicester City 15.38% 11/2
--
5/1
--
11/2
--
9/2
West Ham United 13.33% 13/2
--
11/2
--
13/2
--
11/2
Crystal Palace 7.69% 10/1
--
10/1
--
10/1
--
12/1
Aston Villa 1.96% 40/1
--
50/1
--
40/1
--
50/1