A History of Statistics in The Premier League at Christmas

#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Begambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. T&Cs apply.

Secondly, the Premier League leaders at Christmas have repeatedly failed to lift the title in recent times. Last season provides an excellent example, as Arsenal were five points clear of City yet finished the campaign that same margin behind the Citizens.

The mid-season World Cup last year ensured only 14 or 15 matches had been played by Christmas, meaning 2022/23 was an unusual case.

It was similar two years earlier, as the pandemic had led the 2020/21 season to begin late, but the outcome was largely the same in that City were not top on December 25 but were when all 38 matches had been played.

In that instance they reeled in Liverpool, just as they did in 2018/19 when the Reds were four points clear on Christmas Day.

City have not looked at their best this season but being adrift of the leaders at this stage will not overly concern them when they have repeatedly roared back to take the title in seasons past. They know it, and so do the teams ahead of them at this stage.

Times Top Of The Table At Christmas

Team	Top At Christmas Tally
Man Utd	7
Liverpool	6
Chelsea	5
Arsenal	3
Man City	3
Newcastle	2
Norwich	1
Blackburn	1
Aston Villa	1
Leeds	1
Leicester	1

The above table illustrates how misleading it can be to be top of the table when tucking into the Christmas turkey.

Liverpool only have one Premier League title to show for the six previous occasions they have led the table on December 25.

Two of their rivals in blue illustrate the other side of the Christmas coin. Both Chelsea and Manchester City have more Premier League titles than Liverpool, and both have won the championship every time they have been top on Christmas Day.

Who will be the next Premier League manager to get sacked?

In fact, the Blues from West London have not yet been champions of the Premier League without leading the way at Christmas, whereas City have seven titles in the last 12 years having only topped the standings going into the Boxing Day fixtures three times.

They are the masters of stringing together lengthy streaks of victories in the second half of seasons.

History shows a team essentially has a ‘coin flip’ chance of going all the way if they are top of the league at Christmas. Sixteen of the eventual champions have achieved this across the 31 completed Premier League seasons.

Premier League Outright Odds

Best Odds

Manchester City

Arsenal

Liverpool

Aston Villa

Tottenham Hotspur

Teams Best Odds

Manchester City

18+ New customers only. Opt in & bet £10 on any sports at 2.00+ odds within 7 days. No Cash out. Get 3x £10 Free Bets on selected markets. Free bets expire in 7 days. Card payments & Apple Pay only. T&Cs apply. BeGambleAware.org | Please gamble responsibly.

8/13

Bet £10 Get £40

New cust only. 7 days to opt in by placing a £10 qualifying bet at 1/1 (2.0) odds or greater to receive 4x Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Bet Builder, 1 x £10 Acca and 1 x £10 football. 7 day expiry. Exclusions apply. Stake not returned. T&Cs apply. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.

2/3

New Customers only. Bet £10* & Get £30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5* and £10* to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration Required. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.

Bet £10 on Football & Get £40 in Free Bets

18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10  on any football market at minimum 1/1 odds. No cash out. Get £40 in Free Bets on selected events. Free Bets expire in 7 days. Debit card / Apple Pay payments only. T&Cs apply, see below. begambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly

8/13

Bet £5 Get £20 in Free Bets

New UK+IRE Customers. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 1x £20 free bet. Free bet available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions

4/6

Bet £5, Get £20 in Free Bets

New UK+IRE Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply.

4/6

Bet £10 Get £30 in Bonuses

Terms: 18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs apply. begambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly

8/13

£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 100 Bonus Spins

New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. Mobile exclusive. Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. Free bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. 30 days to qualify. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. Account & Payment method restrictions apply. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP Address only. T&Cs apply.

4/6

Min Stake: £5. Maximum Free Bet: £30. First bet on a Football or Horse Racing multiple with 3+ selections. Overall odds: 3.00 (2/1) or higher. Free Bets available upon settlement of the qualifying bet. 100 Extra Spins on Gold Blitz (£0.10 per spin) credited on settlement of qualifying Acca bet. No wagering requirements on extra spin winnings. Debit Card deposit only (exclusions apply). This offer is valid 7 days from the new account being registered. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. Bet the Responsible Way. Full terms apply.

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

18+. BeGambleAware.org. New customers only. Min Dep £10. Debit cards only. Opt in for bonus funds. Wagering, sportsbook 3x at min. odds of 1.40 (2/5), casino 50x. Sports bonus must be wagered before using the casino bonus. Valid for 7 days. Geographical Restrictions and T&Cs Apply.

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

Arsenal

2/1

Bet £10 Get £40

Bet £10 on Football & Get £40 in Free Bets

2/1

Bet £5 Get £20 in Free Bets

Bet £5, Get £20 in Free Bets

Bet £10 Get £30 in Bonuses

2/1

£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 100 Bonus Spins

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

19/10

Liverpool

Bet £10 Get £40

Bet £10 on Football & Get £40 in Free Bets

Bet £5 Get £20 in Free Bets

Bet £5, Get £20 in Free Bets

Bet £10 Get £30 in Bonuses

£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 100 Bonus Spins

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

24/5

Aston Villa

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

750/1

Tottenham Hotspur

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

1000/1

Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets

Bet £10 Get £40

Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets

Bet £10 on Football & Get £40 in Free Bets

Bet £5 Get £20 in Free Bets

Bet £5, Get £20 in Free Bets

Bet £10 Get £30 in Bonuses

Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets

£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 100 Bonus Spins

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

Bet £10, Get £40 in Free Bets

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

Three Horse Race For The 2023-24 Premier League Title?

The leading Premier League betting sites are making it a three-horse race for the title this season, yet one of the current top three is not one of the market leaders.

The average of odds from over 20 UK bookmakers imply that Aston Villa - who may be top on Christmas Day 2023 - have just a 6.4% chance of winning the league. As they finished seventh last season, this is understandable. It is rare to come from so far back to win the title.

Manchester City remain favourites, though they have gone from odds-on to odds-against in recent weeks after having their poorest six-game run under Pep Guardiola. The defending champions are given a 38.4% chance of winning a fourth successive title, ahead of Arsenal (26.3%) and Liverpool (23.9%).

It looks set to be a tight race. We have seen closer battles at this stage of the season in the past though. Back in 2013/14 there were five clubs separated by just two points on December 25.

Liverpool and Arsenal were in pole position with 36 points, Manchester City had 35 while Chelsea and Everton were a point further back.

It was City who took the crown in May 2014, though, with Liverpool two points adrift and Chelsea and Arsenal rounding off the top four.

Closest Title Races At Christmas

2013 - 2 points between 5 teams
2010 - 3 points between 4 teams
2003 - 1 point between 3 teams
2001 - 3 points between 3 teams

Established 2001

InPlay Football

Live Streaming - Football

Yes

Football BetBuilder

BetBuilder Cash Out Y/N

Yes

#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Begambleaware.org. New Customers only. Bet £10* & Get £30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5* and £10* to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration Required. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.

Established 2007

InPlay Football

Live Streaming - Football

Yes

Football BetBuilder

BetBuilder Cash Out Y/N

Yes

#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Begambleaware.org. New customers. Max £10 (exc. PayPal). 100% Odds Boost Token. Keep it fun - set your deposit limit. T&Cs apply.

Established 2003

InPlay Football

Live Streaming - Football

Football BetBuilder

BetBuilder Cash Out Y/N

Up to £100 Extra With a 100% Profit Boost

#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Begambleaware.org. New bettors; Code PLAY10; Wager deposit & bonus 8x; Max qualifying bet stake=initial bonus; Valid 60 days; Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply.

The Christmas top three in 2023 will be separated by somewhere between one and four points depending on results in match week 18. It will be among the closest leading packs at this time of year that the Premier League will have seen.

In 2010, there were four teams in close contention at Christmas. Manchester United led the way with 34 points, Arsenal and Manchester City had 32 while reigning champions Chelsea were a point further back.

Sir Alex Ferguson’s side held their nerve to collect a 12th Premier League title, and 19th overall.

United added another two years later in his final season and remain the most successful club in English league history.

Twenty years ago, we had the same Christmas scenario which we may see this season, three teams separated by a single point. United were again top, with 40 points, while Arsenal and Chelsea had 39, snapping at their heels.

Established 2012

LeoVegas Betting Bonus

#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Begambleaware.org. 18+ begambleaware.org, T&Cs apply. New reg only. Claim by placing a min deposit £10 via "My Offers" page within 30 days. Skrill/Neteller deposits excl. 7 days to stake max £10 in-play. Max. extra winnings £100.

What nobody knew at that point was that the Gunners would remain unbeaten throughout the campaign, becoming Invincibles and winning the league in the process.

Newcastle United haven’t been champions for almost a century, although the heavy investment by their owners will look to end that lengthy drought.

They have been top of the table at Christmas in the Premier League era though. In both 1995 and 2001 the Magpies led the way on December 25, only to be eventually overtaken both times.

United famously overhauled Newcastle’s 10-point festive advantage in the earlier example, with Arsenal recovering to earn Arsene Wenger’s second Premier League crown six years later.

Premier League Relegation Outright Odds

Best Odds

Sheffield United

Burnley

Luton Town

Nottingham Forest

Everton

Brentford

Crystal Palace

Teams Best Odds

Sheffield United

1/2000

1/2000

1/2000

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

Burnley

1/10

£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 100 Bonus Spins

1/12

1/9

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

1/10

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

Luton Town

2/7

£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 100 Bonus Spins

2/7

1/3

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

7/25

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

Nottingham Forest

7/4

£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 100 Bonus Spins

13/8

7/4

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

7/4

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

Everton

14/1

£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 100 Bonus Spins

12/1

12/1

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

14/1

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

12/1

Brentford

2500/1

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

2500/1

2500/1

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

500/1

Crystal Palace

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

500/1

Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets

Bet £10 Get £40

Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets

Bet £10 on Football & Get £40 in Free Bets

Bet £5 Get £20 in Free Bets

Bet £5, Get £20 in Free Bets

Bet £10 Get £30 in Bonuses

Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets

£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 100 Bonus Spins

Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!

Bet £10, Get £40 in Free Bets

Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.

Blades, Clarets And Hatters Battling Against History

It won’t surprise you to learn that being bottom of the table on Christmas Day almost inevitably spells doom.

The relegation zone is certain to be filled with the three newly promoted sides this year, with their results in the final round of games before Christmas determining which will be in 20th place.

Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United will hope to draw inspiration from the bottom three from last Christmas, though doing so comes with a slight caveat.

Wolves were bottom last December 25 and Nottingham Forest 18th, yet both stayed up. However, the winter World Cup meant fewer fixtures than normal had been played, with only 14 or 15 in the book when Christmas came around.

More telling is that in the six seasons prior to that, the bottom side went on to be relegated every time. Before Wolves, only three of 30 teams who were propping up the rest when opening their presents stayed up.

If you’re considering a wager on the Premier League relegation market, it’s vitally important to bear this in mind.

Established 2020

BetItOn Betting Bonus

Bet £15 Get £10 in Free Bets

#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Begambleaware.org. Welcome Bonus: New players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £15, Max £10 Free Bet valid for 14 days. Bets Must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. Neteller, Skrill and PayPal not eligible. T&Cs apply

Three Teams That Survived After Being Bottom At Christmas

West Brom – 2004
Sunderland – 2013
Leicester – 2014

The struggling teams in 2023/24 have a benchmark for which to aim for at Christmas if seasons past offer any indication. All three bottom sides which stayed up were in double figures for points on December 25.

West Bromwich Albion had 10 points after 17 matches in 2004 and occupied 20th place on Christmas Day.

It took a dramatic final day win to seal their safety, but they became the first team in the Premier League era to stay up after being at the foot of the table when Santa came a-calling.

Nine years later, Sunderland also had 10 points from 17 games when bottom at Christmas, which was the exact same position in which Leicester found themselves the following season.

Remarkably, both recovered to finish 14th, with the Foxes ascending far higher the campaign after as they sealed the unlikeliest title win in English football history.

Going into the final round of fixtures this year, Sheffield United and Burnley have eight points while Luton have accumulated nine. Having at least 10 at Christmas is within all their grasps.

Bookies braced for more goals & bets on Erling Haaland

It isn’t just bottom-placed sides at Christmas who struggle to preserve their Premier League status, but all teams in the relegation places.

There has not been any season since the rebranding of the top flight in 1992 in which the teams occupying the drop zone on December 25 all stayed up.

The relegation odds on betting apps for 2023/24 suggest this pattern is unlikely to be broken this season, with the current bottom three the leading contenders for relegation.

All three teams in those positions at Christmas 2020 went down that season and it would not be a surprise if the same occurred next May.

Established 2001

Sports with Cash Out

Cash Out - InPlay

Yes

Cash Out - Auto

Cash Out - Partial

Yes

Established 2020

Sports with Cash Out

Cash Out - InPlay

Yes

Cash Out - Auto

Cash Out - Partial

Yes

Established 2017

Sports with Cash Out

Cash Out - InPlay

Yes

Cash Out - Auto

Cash Out - Partial