A History of Statistics in The Premier League at Christmas

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Secondly, we have seen Premier League leaders at Christmas falter in recent times.

For example, Liverpool enjoyed a four-point advantage during the 2018/19 season before eventually being reeled in by Manchester City.

Two seasons ago, the Reds were five points clear but Pep Guardiola’s side showed their nerve during the business end of the campaign to become champions.

City’s squad have the knowhow in this position of chasing a league leader and it’s an unusual situation for Arsenal to find themselves.

Times Top of The Table at Christmas

Team	Top At Christmas Tally
Man Utd	7
Liverpool	6
Chelsea	5
Newcastle	2
Arsenal	3
Man City	3
Norwich	1
Blackburn	1
Aston Villa	1
Leeds	1
Leicester	1

It’s pretty crazy that Manchester City have only been Christmas table-toppers three times since the inaugural 1992-93 season considering that the north-west side have recorded twice as many triumphs.

It is clear that City have been able to keep their nerve and string together a number of wins during the second half of respective campaigns and that’s despite competing hard in the Champions League on several occasions.

The above table won’t make for happy reading if you’re a Liverpool supporter considering that they have a solitary Premier League title to show for their six Christmas Day leads, with that coming when enjoying a runaway success during the 2019-20 season.

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Manchester City currently boast a 100% record when it comes to being top before the Boxing Day fixtures and managing to retain the number one position.

It should also be noted that Chelsea have been able to turn the screw on each of the five occasions that they have led the chasing pack at Christmas, with the Blues becoming champions each time.

We now have 30 completed Premier League seasons and sixteen of the teams who have led the way at Christmas have gone on to land the title.

The current campaign has featured the smallest number of matches played before the festive period and that means the majority of games are still to take place.

Premier League

Tuesday 6th June 2023

	% Chance		£30	£30	£30	£20	£20	£30	£20	£40

Manchester City	57.90%	--	1/2	4/6	8/11	--	4/7	--	--	5/8
Liverpool FC	11.11%	--	8/1	8/1	8/1	--	8/1	--	--	8/1
Arsenal FC	10.00%	--	8/1	7/1	8/1	--	9/1	--	--	7/1
Manchester United	9.09%	--	10/1	8/1	10/1	--	8/1	--	--	9/1
Newcastle United	6.67%	--	14/1	14/1	14/1	--	12/1	--	--	14/1
Chelsea FC	5.88%	--	16/1	12/1	14/1	--	14/1	--	--	14/1

Team % Chance Best Odds

MCI

57.90%

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4/6

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5/8

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1/2

LIV

11.11%

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ARS

10.00%

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7/1

7/1

MUN

9.09%

10/1

10/1

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10/1

NEW

6.67%

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12/1

CHE

5.88%

16/1

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16/1

12/1

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Two Horse Race for the 2022-23 Premier League Title?

The leading Premier League betting sites are making it a two-horse race this season as far as the title is concerned.

While it’s been Manchester City and Liverpool regularly duking it out over the past few years, Arsenal are the new kids on the block.

That’s despite the Gunners not finishing in the top three in any of the previous six seasons.

However, when it comes to the closest title race in Premier League history, then the 2013/14 season incredibly saw five teams being separated by just two points at Christmas.

Liverpool and Arsenal were joint leaders on 36 points, with Manchester City a point further back, while Chelsea and Everton both had 34 points.

Come the end of the season, it was City who were celebrating their second Premier League title and fourth top-flight title in their history.

Liverpool finished second, two points behind City while the Gunners finished fourth.

Closest title races at Christmas

2013 - 2 points between 5 teams
2010 - 3 points between 4 teams
2003 - 1 point between 3 teams
2001 - 3 points between 3 teams

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In 2010, four teams were separated by just three points. Manchester United were the front runners with 34 points on Christmas Day, two points clear of Arsenal and their neighbours City, while Chelsea were a point further back in fourth spot.

United held on to the top spot for the remainder of the season to win their 12th Premier League title and their 19th in total which made them the most successful team in England’s top flight.

It’s a record they continue to hold, with the 2012-13 triumph putting them on a tally of 20.

In 2003, the top three teams at Christmas were separated by just one point. Manchester United were top on 40 points, one clear of Arsenal and Chelsea who both had 39 points.

When it came to the final standings, Arsenal managed to win the title, with Chelsea second and United trailing in third.

Newcastle United have never won a modern-day Premier League title although they could be knocking on the door to change this statistic over the coming campaigns.

It’s been nearly 20 years since the Magpies were regularly challenging for major domestic honours and they have been top on Christmas Day on two occasions.

On Christmas Day 2001, the Magpies were flying high at the top of the table with Arsenal and Liverpool leading the chasing pack.

But six years after Kevin Keegan’s side blew a 10-point lead at Christmas time, Bobby Robson’s team surrendered a three-point advantage as Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal claimed their second Premier League title and 12th overall while Newcastle finished fourth.

Premier League - Relegation

Tuesday 6th June 2023

	% Chance		£30	£30	£30	£20	£20	£30	£20	£40

Luton Town	71.43%	--	--	4/11	--	--	--	--	--	2/5
Sheffield United	62.54%	--	--	4/7	--	--	--	--	--	10/17
Burnley FC	38.10%	--	--	13/8	--	--	--	--	--	6/4
AFC Bournemouth	36.36%	--	--	7/4	--	--	--	--	--	7/4
Nottingham Forest	26.67%	--	--	11/4	--	--	--	--	--	5/2
Fulham FC	22.22%	--	--	10/3	--	--	--	--	--	7/2
Everton FC	20.00%	--	--	3/1	--	--	--	--	--	4/1
Wolverhampton Wanderers	15.38%	--	--	5/1	--	--	--	--	--	11/2
Crystal Palace	11.11%	--	--	8/1	--	--	--	--	--	8/1
Brentford FC	10.00%	--	--	9/1	--	--	--	--	--	8/1

Team % Chance Best Odds

LUT

71.43%

2/5

2/5

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4/11

SHU

62.54%

10/17

10/17

4/7

BUR

38.10%

13/8

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13/8

6/4

BOU

36.36%

7/4

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7/4

7/4

NFO

26.67%

11/4

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11/4

5/2

FUL

22.22%

7/2

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EVE

20.00%

4/1

4/1

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3/1

WOL

15.38%

11/2

11/2

5/1

CRY

11.11%

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BRE

10.00%

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Magpies, Canaries and Clarets Battling Against History

It might sound fairly obvious but the one place you don’t want to be on Christmas Day is at the bottom of the Premier League table!

Historically, things do not end well if a team are sitting in 20th position when everyone is carving their turkey although we should add a caveat for the 2022-23 season.

After all, bottom-placed Wolves might only have ten points on the board but the fact that they’ve played just fifteen games will offer crumbs of comfort, with 23 matches remaining to protect their top-flight status.

Nevertheless, in the previous six seasons, the basement team has been relegated.

In fact, 27 of the 30 teams who were sitting bottom of the tree on Christmas Day have found themselves playing Championship football the following season.

Definitely something to consider when wagering on the relegation market.

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3 Teams that Survived After Being Bottom at Christmas

West Brom – 2004
Sunderland – 2013
Leicester – 2014

Bryan Robson’s West Brom were the first team to buck the trend at the 13th time of asking by climbing off the foot of the table on December 25 to survive a dramatic last day finale.

The Baggies were the only team to manage the feat in the first 21 Premier League seasons before the achievement was matched in back-to-back campaigns.

Gus Poyet’s Sunderland were three points adrift before the Boxing Day games in 2013, but the Uruguayan guided the Black Cats to safety in the second half of the season.

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Twelve months later Leicester looked doomed five points from safety, but Nigel Pearson’s men finished the season strongly to finish 14th.

However, the fact that only three sides have dragged themselves at least three places higher after propping up all the other teams in the Premier League suggests that it’s a tall order to clamber over the other relegation contenders once you’re in a dogfight.

Never in the history of the Premier League have all three sides occupying the bottom three places at Christmas survived.

Two seasons ago was the third time in the history of the league that all three sides in the bottom three on December 25 were relegated.

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In the bottom 3 at Christmas and relegated (before 2020):

51 of 88 (57.9%)

In the bottom 3 at Christmas and survive (before 2020):

37 of 88 (42.1%)

The Premier League loves to provide a drama or two and, while teams in the top half of the table might think they are safe, history suggests that they cannot take anything for granted.

Norwich City were seventh in the table on December 25, 1994, when the league was made up of 22 teams.

They were 14 points clear of Aston Villa who were 19th, but a shocking loss of form in the second half of the season saw the Canaries relegated in the biggest post-Christmas collapse of any relegated side in the history of the league.

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