Clacton By-Election Odds: How Farage's Multiple Scandals Could Play Out

It seems as if, almost every month, we are covering an historic, unprecedented by-election. 

A breakthrough for a small, insurgent party. A by-election where 70,000 voters effectively get to choose the next prime minister. 

Now, one where a man with a bin on his head, whose odds imply a not insignificant chance of winning.

Count Binface has drifted out to a best-priced 12/1 with most betting sites to win the Clacton by-election, compared to 1/10 for the incumbent, Nigel Farage.

Farage Financial Scandals Deepening 

A quick reminder of how we got here. 

Farage is already under investigation by the parliamentary standards committee regarding an undeclared £5million donation from Thailand-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne prior to the 2024 election.

The donation has become a constant problem for the Reform leader under media questioning, even among sympathetic broadcasters. 

It may get worse now that news has emerged that he turned down state help with security, the original claimed reason for the donation.

Pressure then mounted considerably when the Sunday Times reported his long, close financial relationship with convicted fraudster 'Posh George' Cottrell.

Clacton By-Election Betting Odds:

Odds correct at time of publication at 4.00pm on July 15, 2026

Withdrawals Have Turned Election Into A Farce

Farage then hastily convened a Reform-controlled press conference in Clacton, in which he announced his resignation as an MP and intention to stand in the subsequent by-election. 

All the main parties then withdrew from the contest, which they regarded as a stunt to suspend the investigation and deflect attention.

The other parties are well aware that, if convicted by the committee, he may well be suspended from parliament, prompting a recall by-election, in which they would then stand against a damaged incumbent. 

Consequently, rather than this August 13 by-election being framed as Farage would like - a beleaguered incumbent, the victim of a witch-hunt, fighting against his tormentors in the establishment - it is now him versus Count Binface and a host of no-hopers.

Similarities With David Davis Are Limited

This is not a totally unprecedented scenario. 

Back in 2008, Conservative MP David Davis resigned in defence of civil liberties, which he claimed were under threat from new anti-terrorism laws. The effect was the same. 

All the other main parties refused to go along with what they regarded as a PR stunt.

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Davis duly won the by-election by a 74% margin on a 34.5% turnout. Clacton may very well prove similar in both respects, but there are some important differences.

Whilst Davis may not have been popular among MPs, there was no meaningful hostility to him outside of parliament. 

Nor was there much coverage of his resignation or of the debate over its reasons. 

There was never likely to be a strong campaign to unseat him.

A PR Gift For Farage’s Opponents

Farage, in contrast, is the most ‘marmite’ politician in the country. 

A man with a 70% disapproval rating, whose party repeatedly loses higher turnout elections to tactical voting for whoever is best placed to beat them. 

Even as Keir Starmer sank to rock bottom, with a minus 48 approval rating, he still clearly led Farage in polls for best PM. 

Count Binface, if only for the comedy value, has already generated vast publicity. 

The race is meme heaven. He may not be a serious candidate with serious policies, but this Ipsos poll shows more British voters want him to win than Farage.

There is also the matter of Farage's scandals, which are becoming a common theme, even in the media, which is usually sympathetic to him. 

It cannot help to have such unpopular issues amplified.

Don’t Bet On Binface

It would, nevertheless, be a huge leap of faith to assume broad, nationwide polls on the issues and Farage’s popularity translate into actual votes for a joke candidate with a bin on his head.

Clacton is Farage’s hand-picked constituency. The one deemed most likely to favour Reform, and previously UKIP. 

There will be plenty of committed supporters willing to turn out to vote for him, even in a farce of a contest. 

Granted, a majority of Clacton voters didn’t support him in 2024, and there may well be a negative impact on his widely reported absence from constituency duties.

But are there really that many Farage-opponents willing to turn out to support a joke candidate?

For Farage-haters, there are alternatives, such as the ‘Rejoin EU’ party. Ladbrokes offer 4/5 about Count Binface getting 22.5%. That line looks way too high.

Superior betting options regard the longer-term implications. It is extremely hard to imagine a committee consisting of political opponents that will not rule against him.

Even if Farage survives a second by-election, the reputational damage will compound. 

It would be no surprise to see him walk away before the next election - a move that could destroy Reform, just as it did UKIP when he walked away from that project.

As recently argued on these pages, Reform will struggle to win seats at the next election with or without Farage, due to the growing ‘Anyone But Reform’ (ABR) tactical coalition.

The betting advice in that article - to back Labour and the Conservatives to win most seats - is very much stronger now.

Recommended Bet - Count Binface vote share under 22.5% @ 4/5 With Ladbrokes

Who will win the Clacton by-election? Leave your comments in the box below!