London Local Election Odds: Labour In Dire Trouble Across The Board

Previously on these pages, we identified a value bet with which to oppose Labour in the forthcoming round of local elections. 

The odds about Newham Independents winning the mayoral election in that specific borough have since collapsed from 11/4 to 5/4. Now let’s look at the other races in London.

In total, there are six mayoral races in London, but betting sites are only currently offering odds on four, discounting Tower Hamlets and Lewisham.

Lib Dems And Greens Expected To Land Main Targets 

In Watford, the Lib Dems are 1/10 favourites with one of the betting apps and seem unopposable. 

The party have held the position since their inception in 2002 and incumbent Peter Taylor won with a huge 54.8% vote tally last time. Reform are second favourites but unlikely to prosper in this ethnically diverse corner of London.

In Hackney, the Greens are a best-priced 1/5 with William Hill to gain the mayoralty from Labour. 

The parties have the same candidates as the last contest in 2023, when Caroline Woodley beat Zoe Garbett by just over a 2:1 margin.

Much of course has changed since 2023, however, and the Greens are widely predicted to make vast gains in London at Labour’s expense. Again, it is hard to argue with the betting.

Croydon Race Looks A Cracker

Newham aside, by far the most interesting betting heat is Croydon. Labour currently hold very marginal favouritism at 11/10 (Star Sports) over the Conservatives at 5/4, with the Greens still competitive at 6/1 with William Hill.

Historically, this is a classic Labour-Conservative marginal, but both parties have big problems both nationally and locally. 

Under the incumbent Conservative, Jason Perry, Croydon’s finances have been mired in crisis, dependent on government support and administrators. As elsewhere, the Tories are vulnerable to losing right-wing voters to Reform.

Consequently, Labour retain hope of a victory amid what is expected to be a catastrophic round of elections across the UK. 

That hope, and probably the betting, is the result of YouGov’s London-wide MRP survey, which shows them ahead by a tiny margin in Croydon. Note the numbers below.

The fieldwork took place in the middle of April, so these numbers could well have shifted a little in the meantime, off the back of national or regional developments, or local campaigning. 

Such small margins could be flipped simply by differential turnout. 

With only seven points separating first and fourth place, it would be wrong to totally dismiss the Greens or Lib Dems, who are 40/1 with Star Sports.

UK Politics Has Never Been More Competitive

Indeed, whilst Croydon is far from representative of the UK or even London, this race demonstrates the unprecedented competition for voters. 

Race after race across the UK now involves more than two competitive parties, or up to five. 

Consequently, longer term targets such as the next general election remain highly unpredictable and open to change. 

For bettors trying to predict individual constituencies, research such as YouGov’s MRP surveys are invaluable.

Their projections present both a high and low outcome for each party. 

Our job is then to analyse the other factors, such as differential turnout, specific candidates and campaigning strength, in order to predict which parties will overperform and underperform.

On that front, the Lib Dems have a long history of thriving in local elections, for logical reasons. 

Their core vote is highly engaged and, whereas nationally many sympathetic to their cause see them as a wasted vote, that doesn’t apply locally in the areas where they are consistently competitive.

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Nascent Greens May Outperform Polling

Historically, that applies to the Greens on a much smaller level. However right now, they are turbo-charged under Zack Polanski. If any party will vastly overperform their polls, it is them, as we saw in the Gorton and Denton by-election. 

The Greens suddenly have a social media presence and are filling a void on the left vacated by Labour once Keir Starmer replaced Jeremy Corbyn. 

Whether online, or at public events such as the recent anti-far-right march in London, they are engaging with a large demographic which rarely voted Green in the past, if at all. This could blindside pollsters.

In stark contrast, Labour are bound to struggle to get their vote out. All governing parties do, even when not sinking to historical polling lows as they are. This analysis from Aditya Chakrabortty explains why they are so vulnerable to the Greens in London.

The Conservatives might hope to fare better now in opposition, but their national share remains way down on where it was when these elections were last contested. Their problem is shedding votes to Reform, who are now established as the leading right-wing party. 

In London that dynamic only really applies on the margins and in outer boroughs, as most races are between parties of the left. Nationwide, though, the biggest ‘known unknown’ moving forward is whether non-left voters will embrace tactical voting. 

How do you think Labour will perform at the local elections? Leave your comments in the box below!