Rory McIlroy Masters Odds: Can He Finally Win At Augusta?

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Rory McIlroy Masters Odds: Can He Finally Win At Augusta?
  • McIlroy is +35 playing holes 10 and 11 over 57 rounds
  • The Ulsterman is +12 on the opening hole and -19 on the second hole
  • The four-time major winner is +12 on par 3s, +60 on par 4s and -96 on par 5s
  • The Ryder Cup star has dropped most shots on the 11th hole (26)

Rory McIlroy's Masters is all but over after a disappointing third round 71, which leaves him in a share 21st on three over par. 

The Ulsterman will start his final round 10 shots behind Scottie Scheffler who finished his third round a shot clear of Collin Morikawa. McIlroy's odds have drifted to between 250/1 and 1,000/1 with the leading betting sites

The Masters is the one Grand Slam that continues to elude the Northern Irishman, with a second place finish in 2022 the closest he has come to winning at Augusta.

If this is to be the year that the 34-year-old finally masters the Augusta course and become the sixth golfer to complete a career Grand Slam, then he needs to shoot very low over the weekend. 

We take a look at how McIlroy has struggled at Augusta over the years.

The Turn Is Where The Trouble Begins

For some reason, when Rory McIlroy gets to the turn at the Masters, he begins to struggle with his game. 

The 10th and 11th hole have let the him down over the years with a combined overall score of +35. A double bogey six on the 11th on Friday added to those woes. 

Rory McIlroy Worst Masters Hole

On the par-four 10th hole, McIlroy has managed just six birdies, while carding 13 bogeys, two double bogeys and one triple bogey, and averages 0.2 of a stroke more than par.

The par-four 11th is his worst hole statistically. Five birdies is all McIlroy, who finished third at the recent Valero Texas Open, has to show for this hole in 57 rounds.

A total of 15 bogeys, four double bogeys and a triple bogey is not good enough for a player classed as one the best of his generation.

Rory McIlroy Worst Masters Hole

There are certain holes a golfer likes and looks forward to playing. With the Masters always played at Augusta, McIlroy has his favourite holes.

The 13th and 15th are where McIlroy has picked up the most shots, averaging 0.5 strokes under par on both. 

First Hole Pain Needs To Be Addressed

The first hole of any round in any tournament is important as it can set the tone for the rest of the day. 

Card a birdie and confidence is high. Begin with a bogey or worse, and it can take a while to get it out of a player's mind.

The first hole at Augusta is called Tea Olive and is a par 4, 445-yard straightforward opening hole.

Rory McIlroy Hole Statistics

However, since making his Masters debut in 2009, McIlroy has struggled on this hole, managing to start with a birdie just three times.

In the 57 rounds he has played, his overall score on the first hole is +12, but his powers of recovery are evident on the second hole, with a combined score of -19.

Rory McIlroy Hole Scores

Prayers Need To Be Answered At Amen Corner

Augusta National is famous for many things, including the pine needles around the 17th hole and Rae's Creak that runs through the course.

It also has Amen Corner, regarded as the three toughest holes on any golf course.

It starts towards the approach at the 11th and runs through to the 13th and has been the undoing of many golfers in the past, including McIlroy. 

Rory McIlroy Masters Pars

Playing the 11th and 12th to 23 over par, tells you exactly how difficult McIlroy has found these holes in the past. 

Overall, McIlroy is -3 on Amen Corner, thanks to a lot of recovery work done on the 13th, which he has played to -26 over the years. 

Ironically, during his first ever Masters in 2009, McIlroy didn't drop a shot on the three holes played over the four days and managed to pick up a couple of birdies also. 

Keep Big Scores Away From The Scorecard

There is no doubting McIlroy ability to win a Masters and add his name to the elusive membership of players who have won all four Majors. 

However, putting together four solid rounds has proved tricky for the four-time major winner.

An 80 on the final day scuppered his chances of winning in 2011, when he had a four-shot lead teeing off at the 10th. 

Only once in 2015, has he managed to card four rounds under par, but McIlroy finished fourth, six shots behind champion Jordan Spieth.

McIlroy has only managed 10 eagles in 57 rounds, which is a disappointing return for a player of his calibre. That is offset somewhat by the three triple bogeys he has signed for.

Keeping big scores off the scorecard will help keep his score lower.

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Verdict

Rory McIlroy has shown over the 15 years of visiting Augusta National that he is capable of winning the Masters one day. 

His ability to bail himself out of trouble at certain holes is something he can build on. Picking up 54 shots on the 13th and 15th is phenomenal, and while many of those shots were playing trying to challenge, it is something he can build on this year.

It's highly unlikely McIlroy will chase down Scheffler, who remains favourite with new betting sites to win a second Masters in three years.

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Charlie Mullan

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