UK Local Election Betting Tips: Green Surge Looks Overestimated Beyond London

With British politics more competitive and unpredictable than ever, no fewer than seven different parties will play a prominent role on ‘Super Thursday’.

The nationalist parties are short odds-on to win the most seats in their devolved Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly. 

Wide Range Of Betting Options Available On Local Councils

In England, more than 5,000 local council seats are up for grabs. For those trying to predict how they will be distributed between the five main parties, betting sites are offering an unprecedented array of markets.

Hats off in particular to Ladbrokes, who have priced up the composition of five specific councils. 

The odds project ‘no overall control’ in Wandsworth (Evens), Hampshire (1/7) and East Surrey (4/9); a Lib Dem majority in West Surrey (1/3) and a Conservative majority in Westminster (8/11).

Here though, we are looking at the overall totals across England for each party, their finishing order and some match bets. These are the totals with which each party starts:

Labour And Tories On Course For Huge Losses

When these particular councils were last contested, English politics was in a very different place. 

While the Conservatives were rapidly declining under Boris Johnson, amid the ‘Partygate’ scandal, they were nowhere near the bottom which resulted in their worst ever general election. 

Labour were the main beneficiaries, along with the Lib Dems in the areas where they are historically strong. Reform had barely begun to grow into a nationwide force and the Greens were still very much a minor party.

Fast forward to 2026 and the narrative is dominated by the collapse of the establishment parties and the rise of insurgents, namely Reform and the Greens. There is universal agreement among the various projections that Reform will win the most seats.

As the above wide-ranging totals illustrate, local elections are devilishly hard to predict and, unlike major national elections, expert predictions tend to vary widely. 

Hopefully, that presents some value betting opportunities.

Greens Poor Value At Odds-On

The relatively low Green tally is particularly notable. As discussed previously on these pages, they seem sure to make big gains in London at Labour’s expense. 

However, Zack Polanski’s appeal may not travel so well, to very different areas of the country.

There are very clear correlations with Polanski’s vision for the Greens and Labour under Jeremy Corbyn. What happened there? 

Much early excitement and a strong 2017 general election, followed by an electoral disaster in 2019. Yet even on the latter occasion, Corbyn made gains in London, among its younger, diverse, socially liberal population.

As Polanski has broken into the mainstream, he has come under increasing scrutiny and the Greens' election campaign is under fire for alleged anti-semitism. 

There is polling evidence suggesting his approval has fallen sharply. 

All things considered, odds-on quotes on betting apps about the Greens finishing second, or beating their main rivals in match bets, appear very poor value. 

Of the nine projections laid out above, only two have them gaining enough seats to finish second, and the fieldwork was taken before this anti-semitism crisis escalated. 

For all their new voters on the left, the Greens are at risk of losing former Conservative supporters.

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Back Lib Dems To Finish Second

Take them on with the Liberal Democrats at 13/5 with Star Sports. They are in clear second according to those aggregate projections and have the party organisation to perform well in the areas where they are competitive.

The yellows are the past masters of local elections. Very rarely a factor at national level, and often seen as a wasted vote, but famously active locally and embedded in communities. 

Their supporters tend to be highly engaged, and likely to vote, in contrast to others in these low turnout elections.

UK Local Elections Odds: What Happens Next?

Once the results start coming in, the narrative war will begin, with representatives of each party trying to spin them as best they can. 

This is a useful guide to what actually represents a good or bad night for each party.

Most significantly, this narrative war could determine the future of the prime minister. 

Moderate, or even bad losses for Labour will probably not be enough to force out Keir Starmer. As predicted previously, it seems a consensus is building among Labour MPs that Andy Burnham is their best solution, and it will take time to get him back into parliament.

However, in the event of a disaster, panic might set in. A quick challenge from a rival - Wes Streeting perhaps - or Starmer’s resignation, would kill Burnham’s hopes and set up a divisive leadership contest over the summer. 

Watch this space.

Recommended bet: Back Lib Dems to win second most seats @ 13/5 with Star Sports. 

Will Labour and the Tories have a disastrous local election night? Leave your comments in the box below!