Scottish Parliament Election Odds & Betting Tips: Back Reform To Finish Second

If the odds on betting sites are even remotely accurate, there is no question who will win and dominate this week’s elections for the Scottish Parliament. 

These elections, nevertheless, do involve some tremendous betting opportunities in the side markets.

Here are the basics. There are 129 seats at Holyrood, meaning 65 are required to win an overall majority. Seats are distributed on the basis of two votes. 

First, 73 constituencies are determined by a simple, ‘first past the post’ vote in which the party with the most votes gains the seat.

Second, a regional vote determines the other 56 seats. Each of Scotland’s eight regions distributes seven MSPs, using the D’Hondt system.

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SNP Remain Way Ahead

At the last election in 2021, the Scottish National Party (SNP) fell one short of that majority with 64 seats. 

They have since lost two first ministers - Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf - and suffered disastrous losses at the 2024 UK general election. 

Their poll share is down considerably since 2021, yet they are universally regarded as near-certainties to win the most seats again, with William Hill offering the best price at just 1/33.

Therefore, the competitive betting options revolve around two questions. Can they win a majority this time, and which party will finish second? 

The majority question is on a knife-edge. Star Sports offers 4/6 about No Majority, while Ladbrokes goes 11/8 that the SNP achieve their target. 

Polling firms offer contrary signals. There have been six MRPs based on surveys conducted since the middle of March. 

Four projected a narrow SNP majority, winning either 66 or 67 seats. However, the other two, including the most recent from Norstat, project them falling well short.

Holyrood Polls Tend To Be Reliable

It is important to stress the difference between these elections and the English local elections, which will gain as much UK media attention. 

The latter will have lower turnout, differential for multiple reasons, which make the seat tallies much harder to project. 

In contrast, the Scottish elections are on a par with any national election. The turnout in 2021 was a solid 63.5%. Polls didn’t widely differ between firms and proved pretty accurate.

Independence Argument Creates Unique Dynamic

Furthermore, the dynamics are specific to Scotland and the fundamental question in their politics: should they be an independent state or remain part of the UK? SNP and the Greens support independence, whereas Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems and Reform are pro-union.

Consequently, the SNP tend to monopolise the independence vote, while the unionist vote moves between the four major parties supporting their position. This leads to tactical voting which is completely alien to English politics. 

Let’s try to simplify a complicated dynamic. The Scottish electorate is considerably to the left of England. Thus historically, Labour were dominant. However, when independence rose in salience, a huge part of their voter base switched to the SNP.

During the next period, the Conservatives (who had previously been near-extinct in Scotland), rose with many unionist, previously Labour, voters, calculating they were a better bet to stop the SNP and independence.

More recently, as the Conservative vote went into freefall across the UK, Labour performed a comeback which had seemed impossible just a few years ago. In the 2024 general election, they rose from just one seat to 37, while the SNP fell from 48 to 9. 

The takeaway here suggests that when Labour are thriving nationally, they can win Scotland. But when they are struggling, they can completely collapse.

Rise Of Reform Changes Everything  

Critically, during all of this period, Reform - or their Nigel Farage-led predecessors in the Brexit Party or UKIP - were never a factor. They certainly are now, providing a new option for anti-SNP, anti-independence voters.

As a Brexit-fundamentalist, far-right party in leftish, pro-Remain Scotland, Reform have a low ceiling and lack the crossover appeal of Labour and the Lib Dems. 

However, they are consistently polling around 20% and therefore severely restrict the ability of the other unionist parties to build tactical coalitions. 

Furthermore, their presence could further aid the SNP, as anti-Reform voters choose the option best placed to beat them.

Reform won’t win many, if any, constituencies in Scotland under first past the post. However, they are sure to pick up plenty of seats via the regional vote. The D’Hondt system is designed to compensate parties who finish second in lots of constituencies.

This may be underestimated by betting apps, which broadly rate the race for second as a toss-up between Reform and Labour. 

Even in the above Norstat poll, which is notably worse for Reform than other polls, they are projected to win 19 seats and finish second.

YouGov’s last Scottish MRP projects both total seats and the upper and lower end of possibilities. 

They projected Reform winning 20 seats, within a range of 17-23. Compare that with Labour on 15, within a range of 12-17.

Another factor is that their vote is potentially underestimated, given they have no history in Scottish elections and because, as seen in England, Reform are attracting many first-time or infrequent voters. 

This could blindside pollsters. Odds of 5/6 with Star Sports represent excellent value.

Recommended bet: Back Reform to finish second in most seats @ 5/6 with Star Sports 

Who do you think will come second at this week's Scottish Parliament elections? Leave your comments in the box below!