Next Labour Leader Betting: Who Belongs On The Shortlist To Replace Starmer?
The fallout from Labour’s catastrophic result in Caerphilly was instant, with speculation mounting regarding Keir Starmer’s future.
Some anonymous briefers even mooted the idea that he’d be ‘gone by Christmas’.
The best odds available on political betting sites regarding his year of departure are 5/4 for 2026, with 2029 or later (the likely date of the next election) at 7/2. Odds of 22/1 are available for a departure in 2025.
Those ongoing markets are worthy of deeper analysis in another column on another day but note this core point.
When betting on the next Labour leader or next Prime Minister, first evaluate the timing of Starmer’s exit, as it has a transformative effect on which candidates hold a realistic chance.
I’ve got straight to work with @Keir_Starmer to discuss how we will work closely together to defeat the forces of division and hate, and to reunite the country. pic.twitter.com/KVvt2bxMRF
— Lucy Powell MP (@LucyMPowell) October 25, 2025
The Favourite Is Far From Certain To Run
In particular, consider the circumstances of the current favourite. Andy Burnham is currently best-priced at 23/5 on betting apps.
Were he a confirmed runner in a leadership contest, those odds would crash - perhaps to odds-on.
His close ally Lucy Powell has just been elected as Labour’s Deputy Leader, in a race which likely mirrored the party electorate’s dissatisfaction with the current leadership and desire for change.
Starmer recently sacked Powell, and Bridget Phillipson was widely assumed to be his preference. Given the circumstances, the latter fared better than expected.
However, the probable desire of party members does not resolve the logistics of the incumbent Mayor of Greater Manchester becoming eligible to run for the leadership.
As we explained a few weeks ago, there are numerous hurdles for Burnham to clear and his mayoral term does not end until 2028.
The sooner Starmer is replaced, the less likely Burnham is. The longer he survives as PM, the better chance that his faction will grow more powerful and those hurdles will be overcome.
Indeed, the timing is critical when evaluating the claims of anyone in the long list to succeed Starmer as either Labour leader or Prime Minister.
In the latter market, any non-Labour selection requires Starmer first surviving a full-term (best-priced at 2/1 with Ladbrokes).
To Become PM, Only High-Office Holders Need Apply
Were Starmer to fight the next election, the list of successors becomes very long.
However, if the replacement is a Labour figure who becomes PM instantly, without winning a general election, history tells us only a small number of candidates are in contention.
Everybody to have done so previously or even mounted a serious bid, was either in or had previously held high office.
When Margaret Thatcher was ousted in 1990, she was replaced by the chancellor and former foreign secretary, John Major.
His rivals were former defence secretary Michael Heseltine and foreign secretary Douglas Hurd. Gordon Brown was chancellor to Blair.
More recently, Theresa May was home secretary before being crowned as David Cameron's replacement by MPs.
She was replaced by former foreign secretary Boris Johnson, who beat his replacement, Jeremy Hunt.
He was replaced by yet another former foreign secretary Liz Truss, who beat former chancellor Rishi Sunak, who would soon replace Truss.
Spot the trend. All held at least one of four offices of state - foreign, defence, home or chancellor.
Odds To Be The Next Labour Leader:
Candidate | Odds | Betting Site |
Shabana Mahmood | 10/1 | |
Yvette Cooper | 12/1 | |
David Lammy | 33/1 | |
Rachel Reeves | 35/1 | |
John Healey | 40/1 |
If this persists and the job became vacant tomorrow, we could narrow the shortlist to the above five Labour figures.
From that list, the fate of Reeves is almost certainly tied to Starmer and Healey has never been seriously mentioned as a leadership candidate.
The longer the race is drawn out, the more other candidates could be promoted to these positions.
Plus, it is probably fair to add a few other senior roles into the mix - for example health, business and education secretary.
That means we could add the following to the list.
Odds To Be The Next Labour Leader:
Candidate | Odds | Betting Site |
Andy Burnham | 11/2 | |
Wes Streeting | 6/1 | |
Bridget Phillipson | 28/1 | |
Peter Kyle | 33/1 | |
Jonathan Reynolds | 50/1 |
(Odds correct at time of publish: 5.30pm - 28/10/2025)
Others To Consider
Given that the above 10 options include several near-certain non-starters, it would be remiss to not mention two more heavyweight alternatives.
Both, critically, would appeal to both the membership and factions critical of Starmer (including the largely sidelined left of the party).
Despite being forced out as deputy leader, PM and housing secretary over her tax affairs, Angela Rayner retains a powerful voice in the party.
Odds To Be The Next Labour Leader:
Best-priced at 16/1, she is more likely a kingmaker this time around and probable ally of Burnham.
Finally, former party leader and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband remains very popular with members and, amid factional warfare, could emerge as a compromise candidate.
His odds have crashed to just 8/1 in places, but 50/1 is still available on some betting sites. Combining all of the above 12 shortlisted candidates at best odds equates to a 4/11 chance.
Given most will not run, this is a market which offers outstanding value for those betting early, before the field inevitably whittles down.
As it stands, the best value trio appear to be Phillipson at 28/1, Kyle at 33/1 and Miliband at 50/1. Expect at least one, if not all three, to trade much shorter.
Who do you think will replace Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader? Let us know in the comments box or vote now!
