Next Labour Leader Betting: Andy Burnham Storms Back Into Contention

Previously on these pages, we compiled a 12-strong shortlist to replace Keir Starmer as the next Labour leader, based on a combination of historical trends and current party status. 

With Starmer and Labour's dismal ratings showing no sign of improvement, this is well placed to be the biggest market on political betting sites during 2026.

After numerous recent developments, the race is rapidly taking shape with a quartet trading at single-figure odds. Let's update.

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Wes Streeting Still Favourite

The first dramatic signal that a race was under way came with reports that Wes Streeting was plotting a leadership challenge.

Whilst swiftly denied, if the intention was to amplify his credentials and status, the PR strategy worked. The health secretary is favourite with some betting sites.

However, strong doubts persist that Streeting - seen as being on the right of the party - could win among the membership, which is assumed to be further to the left.

Therefore, when he led calls to bring Angela Rayner back to the cabinet, it was likely a move aimed at building bridges.

Later reports suggested Streeting allies are planning a coronation following the expected electoral disaster looming in May.

Any such plan would require the acquiescence of the party's left.

'Left' and 'right' may seem somewhat outdated labels, but they reflect the perennial factionalism within Labour.

For the sake of clarity, 'right' is associated with Starmer, his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, Tony Blair and allies, while 'left' would apply to those who were happy to serve under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.

A third 'soft left' label would apply to a broader, probably larger group among Labour MPs and members.

Rayner Key Figure To Watch

A senior figure under Corbyn and close to the unions, Rayner falls into the 'left' category.

There is zero indication that she will endorse Streeting, and the former deputy PM retains ambitions for high office.

Starmer has also reached out, labelling her the country's greatest social mobility story.

That may be related to an imminent rebellion over reducing jury trials, which would doubtless fuel speculation of a leadership bid.

Rayner's return to the frontline, just a short time after resigning over an unpaid stamp duty controversy, has sparked a significant market move to 11/2 with a few betting apps.

But any run, or even a return to the cabinet, realistically depends on her being cleared of wrongdoing by an ongoing HMRC investigation.

Burnham On Manoeuvres

The latest move is on one-time favourite Andy Burnham, whose best odds were slashed to 10/1 following weekend news reports that the Greater Manchester Mayor has lined up a winnable constituency to return to Parliament via an imminent by-election.

Although not the constituency in question, this is precisely the offer made by Clive Lewis MP - definitely on the left.

Next Labour Leader Odds:

Regarding these labels, Burnham is best defined as 'soft left'. 

He served under all Labour leaders prior to Corbyn, with whom he had a better relationship than most colleagues.

Deputy leader Lucy Powell is a close ally and Rayner a friend (both are Manchester MPs).

Whilst the logistics of finding him a constituency remain uncertain, were Burnham to return, he would warrant short odds.

The fourth rising candidate is Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Her profile has risen following her promotion and tough new position on immigration.

Mahmood's odds have fallen to 17/2. Be wary of such associations, which will be toxic to large parts of the Labour family.

Blair's endorsement is a kiss of death.

It is also worth mentioning Ed Miliband. Tipped at 50/1 previously, the former party leader is now down to 11/1, with his chances increasing as a unity candidate if all the aforementioned factions produce a stalemate.

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Manchester Faction To Win

What next? Try this plausible sequence of events. Rayner is cleared, but keeps her powder dry. It is unclear whether she wants the leadership at this stage of her career. 

Positioning and leaking gather pace behind the scenes. The 'right' are frustrated in attempts to reach across the party.

Rayner teams up with Powell, using their influence within party structures to enable Burnham's eligibility to run.

A united North West/Manchester faction becomes more visible. Starmer is either challenged and defeated or resigns before suffering the humiliation.

This could happen in the near-term, after the May elections, or later because Starmer has hung on because rivals aren't ready to challenge.

In this scenario, Burnham becomes very much the one to beat.

A credible, telegenic candidate with high-level executive experience to take over as PM, who could reset the government, free from association with previous policy failures.

He may be the only hope for scores, even hundreds, of Labour MPs in the North and Midlands.

Back in Parliament, it is easy to envisage Burnham as the odds-on favourite. Take the 10/1.

Who do you think will replace Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader? Let us know in the comments below!