Next Labour Leader Betting: Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband Rising Rapidly

Amid high drama in Westminster, speculation about the future of Keir Starmer has seen big changes on betting sites for a potential successor.

The odds on the Prime Minister leaving office in 2026 are in freefall, down to a best-priced 1/3 with Ladbrokes, and there is a new, clear favourite to be the next Labour leader and Prime Minister.

Starmer certainly appears to be on the brink. 

If his supporters thought that by blocking Andy Burnham’s bid to run in the Gorton and Denton by-election it would shore up Starmer’s position for the foreseeable future, they weren’t factoring in the perennially unpredictable currency of politics - events.

Rayner Surges Ahead 

Significantly, Angela Rayner’s intervention turned a bad day into a catastrophic one for the PM. 

Her call for the Intelligence and Security Committee to oversee which documents regarding Mandelson would be withheld on grounds of national security sparked a revolt among Labour MPs and forced a humiliating U-turn from the government.

Rayner’s stock is now sky-high. The former deputy PM is now a best-priced 11/4 for next Labour leader and 4/1 for next prime minister with one of the betting apps. 

Judging by the trajectory, those odds probably won’t last long. In the absence of Burnham, she is clearly the leading candidate from the left of the party, which it seems has the numbers to win any contest.

Next Labour Leader Odds:

(Odds correct at the time of publishing: 2.45pm - 05/02/2026)

What Happens Next?

It appears Starmer has lost the confidence of his party, so the open question is when pressure will be brought to bear, whether via a direct leadership challenge or being talked into resigning.

Defeat in the Gorton and Denton would increase the pressure. From a pragmatic perspective, there is no incentive for anyone to challenge Starmer before May’s elections, which seem certain to be catastrophic for Labour. Such a start would likely derail any new leader.

The days and weeks after those elections are sure to see public recriminations from critical Labour voices. 

There are already frequent calls for his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, (a close Mandelson ally), to resign. If Starmer isn’t prepared to resign yet, McSweeney may be the scapegoat.

It is worth reiterating the point made previously on the pages about the logistical difficulty of removing a Labour leader. McSweeney’s scalp may be insufficient to Starmer’s critics, but it may be preferable to publicly organising against the PM and tearing the party apart.

Talks are doubtless ongoing about how to proceed, and who to pick. From the various public comments and anonymous briefings in the media, we can safely conclude there is nothing like consensus. It does, nevertheless, feel like the field is narrowing.

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Streeting To Struggle With Wider Party 

Whilst Rayner is in a strong position, there are risks to backing her. She is still awaiting the results of an HMRC investigation into her tax affairs. She was lobbying for Burnham’s return, which suggests she hasn’t fully committed to running. 

She may be prepared, for now, to accept a return to the cabinet, where her parliamentary support would yield significant influence.

A Rayner v Wes Streeting match-up has been widely trailed and no doubt, the health secretary has ambitions. 

However Streeting, (4/1 with Ladbrokes to be next leader), is another Mandelson ally, and expected to struggle to win over the party membership. Likewise Shabana Mahmood will be portrayed as the McSweeney candidate. Another kiss of death.

Miliband May Be Only Unity Candidate

There are legitimate fears that none of the above could unite the party and therefore turn their fortunes around. 

This explains the other big market move. Previously recommended at 50/1 here, Ed Miliband’s odds are now just 8/1. 

The former leader does appear to be the only plausible unity candidate, and he can legitimately distance himself from Mandelson.

What of Burnham, who is 9/1 with Star Sports? There has been talk in the press of a deal to run in the Bootle constituency. 

To win, he needs Starmer to survive in the short-term, a safe seat to become available, the party to wave through his candidacy, then win a by-election and then the leadership. A series of hurdles and a very narrow path. 

Similarly, any new candidate, suddenly thrust forward by a particular faction is going to face logistical obstacles, such as getting the public support of 81 MPs. 

As it stands, only Rayner and Streeting could be confident of achieving that threshold. 

If indeed, time is fast running out for Starmer, there is no clean process for Labour. The idea of a unity candidate is sure to gain traction. 

There is no suggestion that Miliband has sought a return to the leadership, but events are moving his way. 

Who do you think will replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader? Let us know in the comments below or vote in our poll above!