NBA Betting Trends: Finding Value Betting Against the Spread

Date IconLast Updated: 
Share On Your Network
NBA Betting Trends: Finding Value Betting Against the Spread

When it comes to NBA betting, good teams win but great teams cover. You’ve heard the old adage before, and it’s bordering on cliché in the gambling community.

But there might be another phrase that makes a lot of sense: Achieving teams win; overachieving teams cover.

Let us explain.

The best teams in the NBA aren’t necessarily the best teams against the spread. In fact, in 2018 two of the three worst teams in the NBA against the spread were Cleveland and Golden State. The third was the 48-win Thunder.

So it’s not enough to simply find a winning team and chalk them up as a winner against the spread on a yearly basis.

Bet on Teams that Could Overperform

What we do find, however, is that winning teams who out-perform their preseason expectations find themselves almost always among the league leaders in record against the spread.

Consider: Over the last six seasons, 54 total teams have ranked in the top-9 in record against the spread (good math, right?).

Of those 54 teams, 47 (87 percent) also surpassed their over-under win total that season. Of the nine teams to top the ATS standings from 2013 to 2018 here is how many went over their win total by year:

  • 2018: 9 of 9
  • 2017: 7 of 9
  • 2016: 8 of 9
  • 2015: 8 of 9
  • 2014: 8 of 9
  • 2013: 7 of 9

But the statistic goes even deeper. Remember how winning doesn’t always mean covering the spread?

It does mean covering the spread if a winning team goes over its win total, perhaps unexpectedly transforming from a good to very good team, or a very good to great team.

Of those 47 teams that surpassed their over-under win total and finished in the top-9 against the spread, 39 (83 percent) finished the year at .500 or better.


Check Out: TwinSpires Sportsbook For Free Bets and Welcome Bonus.


Growing Teams Important to Watch

It makes sense that a team taking the next step in their progression might surprise oddsmakers early in the season. But one would think sportsbooks adjust to a team like last year’s Sixers or Pacers, who wound up topping their over-under win total by 12 and 18 games, respectively.

That wasn’t the case, as Philadelphia finished second in the NBA against the spread (47-34-1) and Indiana third (47-35-0).

And that’s part of the equation here, too. Those 39 teams flew by their preseason over-under win total, winning an average of 9.1 more games than sportsbooks set for them. And of those 39 teams, 29 had an over-under win total of at least 40.

So, while a team like the 2018 Brooklyn Nets won two more games (28) than their over-under win total (26), we’re not as interested in those situations.

The aforementioned Pacers had an over-under win total of 30 and wound up winning 48, a clear outlier. Again, we’re looking for teams expected to be good who far exceed expectations.

Recommended Betting Sites

Bell Icon
Affiliate Disclosure: At Gambling.com, we want to ensure that players are matched with the right casino and sportsbook offers for them. For this reason, some of the recommended site links are affiliate links. More
  1. Boosted Bets from ESPN Personalities such as Scott Van Pelt, Mike Greenberg, and Elle Duncan.
    Earn Rewards Through PENN Play Loyalty Program.
    Variety of Promotions including Overtime & Buzzer Beater Protection.
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    GAMBLING
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    8
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Tooltip Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    First Bet Offer
    Yes
    ESPN BET, powered by Penn Interactive, looks to become one of the top sportsbooks in the United States. A clean interface, multiple payment methods, and a plethora of promotions is what sets ESPN BET from other brands.
  2. Fanatics Sportsbook Discover Simplifies Your Betting Experience
    FanCash Feature Delivers Increase Value With Unique Rewards
    Industry-Leading Search Functionality Available
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    9
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Tooltip Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    First Bet Offer
    Yes
    Fanatics Sportsbook, in partnership with Genius Sports, launched BetVision, a unique live betting and streaming product for football games within their app.
  3. Only US Sportsbook with NFL Streaming
    Caesars Rewards Redeemable at Ceasars Locations
    Improved Odds for NY Mets & Chicago White Sox
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    GAMBLING1000
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    14
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Tooltip Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    First Bet Offer
    Yes
    Backed by Caesars Entertainment, the sportsbook provides real-life loyalty rewards for bettors bringing the Las Vegas feel to you. Between Live Streaming, Generous Welcome Offer, & Daily Boosted Parlays, you'll find yourself very busy on the Caesars Sportsbook App.
  4. Brand Ambassadors such as Jamie Foxx
    MGM Rewards Redeemable at MGM Resorts
    Official Partner of NY Knicks, Rangers & Devils
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    GAMBLINGCOM
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    11
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Tooltip Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    First Bet Offer
    Yes
    BetMGM is one of the biggest sportsbooks in the US. Brand offers a broad variety of sports betting markets. It's M rewards program is uniquely rewarding.
  5. Hard Rock Rewards Redeemable in Cafes & Casinos
    Mobile App Uses Accertify for Security
    Supports Payments with Nuvei
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    10
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Tooltip Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    First Bet Offer
    Yes
    Hard Rock Sportsbook partners with American Express Accertify to protect its mobile users from fraud. The world renowned brand features a comprehensive selection of sports.
  6. Bet on Same Game Parlays to Receive Free Bets
    Backed by Rush Street Gaming, Founded in the 90s
    20% MLB Profit Every Tuesday
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    GAMBLING
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    9
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Tooltip Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    First Bet Offer
    Yes
    BetRivers provides a wide range of free bet promotions for major league sports. Also offers the iRush Rewards program.
  7. Official Live Streaming of MLB Games
    Free-To-Play Prize Pool Games
    Official Partner of the NBA, Including NBABet Stream
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    19
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Tooltip Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    First Bet Offer
    No
    DraftKings is one of the biggest US sportsbook brands. Also provides Daily Fantasy Sports, an online casino, and NFT marketplace.
  8. 'Operator of the Year' 2021
    MLB Same Game Parlay $20 Refunds
    Official Partner of the NFL, NBA, NHL, & MLB
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim this sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    18
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Cash Out
    Tooltip Can you cash out of bets before an event has finished?
    Yes
    First Bet Offer
    Yes
    FanDuel is one of the biggest sportsbook operators in the US. Backed by Flutter Entertainment, one of the biggest gambling operators globally.