2022 Eurovision Song Contest Odds: How Will Australia's Entry Perform?

2022 Eurovision Song Contest Odds: How Will Australia's Entry Perform?
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Australia made its Eurovision debut in 2015, ostensibly as a once-off entry to commemorate 60 years of Eurovision. However, a few months later the worst kept secret in European broadcasting was leaked with the news the Aussies were here to stay. 

In terms of performance, Australia quickly got their feet under the table with a fifth-place debut finish, promptly followed up with a second-place in 2017. Two more top 10 finishes followed before the first major blip occurred, with Montaigne failing to qualify in 2021. 

Australia’s odds to win the whole contest currently range from 101.0 to 251.0 in the 2022 Eurovision betting.

Australia’s 2022 Eurovision Entry

Sheldon Riley emerged victorious in Australia Decides, coming second in both the televote and jury vote and just scraping home from televote winner Voyager.

Riley’s song “Not the Same” is a personal journey story performed with incredibly powerful vocals. Riley, 23, was diagnosed with Asperger’s Syndrome at six years of age and this performance is his story about his emotions and experiences throughout his childhood.

What Are Its Chances?

Firstly, and importantly, Riley is an absolutely phenomenal singer with faultless range and timing. Eurovision is 50% jury vote and the first criteria for judges is vocal capacity. Riley has bags of it.

The song is performed with integrity, the stage show is strong and generally Australian production is good. They are the plus points. On the other side of the ledger, this is one of many “sad boy” songs, as dubbed by the Eurovision fandom.

Arguably, it is the best of these, but 2022 is a very downbeat tempo year and songs in the minor keys like this will struggle to stand out from each other. There is a general feeling that the sincerity and emotion of the song are real, for sure, but they are over-wrought and heavily engineered – another negative.

The watery sadness is wrung out of the dishcloth to such an extent the end result feels a little dry and cold. Obviously, this is the writer’s personal opinion, but the sentiment has been echoed across the community and it’s a concern for Australia’s chances.

Is There A Betting Angle?

At the time of writing Australia are a best price of 251.0 (with ¼ odds four places available) for outright glory with several betting sites

There are certainly worse bets. It’s not impossible to see a path to victory for Sheldon and given the vocal capacity of the song a top four result would not be a major surprise, so the 21.0 about the place portion of the bet doesn’t look too bad at all.  

It certainly feels a better proposition than the general 2.5 about a top 10 finish.  If you are engaged with the song and feel it is a contender, that is the way I would play it as for it to perform well it will probably be storming it with the judges. 

On balance, I won’t be having a bet myself at the odds so I cannot recommend one, but if you must, take the big prices in the outright each way markets.