Australian Election Swing Odds: 7 Seats That Could Decide 2025 Election

Betting sites are drawing up their odds on who will win the 2025 Australian federal election – and there are a handful of seats across the country that are on a knife edge.

Anthony Albanese has set a date of May 3 for the election, in which he will seek a second term.

“What I want is a campaign about policy substance and about hope and optimism for our country. I'm optimistic about Australia,” he said.

A total of 151 seats will be contested at the election this year, as Albanese’s Labor go up against Peter Dutton’s Coalition.

The Greens are also seeking to increase their representation in parliament, while there are a number of independents who could cause headaches for Australia’s major parties.

In response to the election announcement, Dutton said: “Generations of Australians have built their lives and our country on the belief that if you work hard you can get ahead and build a better future for your children. However, right now, Australia is going backwards.

Nine seats featured winning margins of less than one per cent in 2022. 

It’s possible we will witness an even closer set of results this year, as the polls tighten towards polling day.

Australian Election Close Seats Odds

Politics betting sites have their fingers on the pulse heading into the election. 

Some seats are certain to go one way or the other, while others are a complete toss-up.

With that in mind, here are the seven seats – one from each state and Northern Territory – that paint an intriguing picture of the Australian election to come.

Brisbane (QLD)

• Coalition (LNP) - 2.35

• ALP - 2.5

• Greens - 3.5

Odds correct at 16.30, March 28 GMT

Brisbane is the only seat with a genuine three-way contest between the Coalition (LNP), Australian Labor Party and Greens.

The Greens won this seat back in 2022 with a 3.7% margin on the Liberal National Party. Stephen Bates is running again for the Greens but faces an uphill battle. 

Polls put Trevor Evans of the LNP on between 31-36%, while the Greens’ range is between 18-24%.

Labor’s Madonna Jarrett seems to be stuck in the middle. This might look like good news for the LNP but it’s likely that Green voters will back Labor with their second vote, and vice versa.

Bet365 price Evans at 2.5 to deliver the seat for the Coalition but he’ll need to improve his poll ratings to get close to 50%.

Amazingly, the Greens are a good bet here at 3.5 because voters are generally against the Liberals’ nuclear energy policy. This is likely to again pit the Greens against the LNP, with Labor voters siding with the former.

Bradfield (NSW)

• Coalition - 1.80

• Independent - 1.90

Odds correct at 16.30, March 28 GMT

New South Wales has a genuinely toss-up division in the form of Bradfield. 

In 2022, Liberal candidate Paul Fletcher won more than double the primary votes of any other candidate but was pushed hard by Nicolette Boele before edging over 50%.

Fletcher is not seeking re-election, with ex-Liberal staffer Gisele Kapterian looking to take his seat. But she faces strong competition from Boele, who is back for another shot at electoral victory.

Bet365 reckon there’s barely anything to split the two candidates. Kapterian leads the odds at 1.80 but Boele is only slightly behind on 1.90. This is a two-horse race.

Boele is a teal independent – one who runs on an environmental platform that is nevertheless economically liberal. 

She has maintained a campaign presence over the past three years and potentially has the backing of MP Kylea Tink’s supporters as boundaries in North Sydney are redrawn.

It’s an impossibly hard seat to call.

Boothby (SA)

• ALP - 1.80

• Coalition - 1.90

Odds correct at 16.30, March 28 GMT

Labor won Boothby in 2022 for the first time since just after the Second World War. Louise Miller-Frost pinched the seat off the Liberals, who now have Nicolle Flint returning in an effort to recapture it.

Flint is a vocal supporter of Dutton and would be a great asset for the Coalition were they to swoop to power. However, she’s priced at 1.90 with betting apps to win here, with Labor’s Miller-Frost the narrow favourite (1.80).

Flint is ready for the contest, recently saying she would help “save the Australian people from Anthony Albanese and his incompetent government”. 

She is expected to run on an economic agenda in the hope of attracting south Adelaidians back to conservative politics.

Keep an eye on this division as Flint’s odds could fall dramatically once the campaign gets started.

Tangney (WA)

• Coalition - 1.75

• ALP - 2.00

Odds correct at 16.30, March 28 GMT

Labor reclaimed Tangney back in 2022 after a wait of almost 40 years but the bookies reckon Howard Ong will edge this contest for the Liberals. 

This is a seat that could change based on boundary changes. The suburbs of Wilson, Ferndale and Lynwood are being cut, while more of Kardinya and Palmyra are being added to the seat.

Bookmakers reckon this will help the Liberals and Ong, who grew up in Singapore and emigrated to Australia in 2005.

Ong’s focus is on the cost of living. Labor’s Sam Lim is championing his record over the past three years, particularly around investment. 

This is a seat that will be won on the strength of the economic argument.

The Liberals are tipped at 1.75 to win it, but a successful Labor defence can’t be overlooked at 2.0.

Lyons (Tasmania)

• Coalition - 1.72

• ALP - 2.00

Odds correct at 16.30, March 28 GMT

Lyons was one of the closest seats at the last election as Labor held with a 0.92% majority. This time bookmakers reckon Liberal candidate Susie Bower will edge over the line.

Bower lost the last election in Lyons despite winning the first vote by a comfortable margin. She’s up against fierce competition in Rebecca White, the former Tasmanian Labor leader who is being parachuted into the seat.

White is an experienced campaigner who has been involved in Tasmanian politics since 2010. Healthcare is high on the agenda, with White pledging to expand the Medicare Urgent Care Clinic program.

Bower has already endured a media gaffe this year, but is still favourite to win a seat that appears to be leaning Liberal. 

Lyons is seen as a key battleground for both main parties and bookmakers are expected to shift their odds a lot over the coming weeks.

Kooyong (Victoria)

• Independent - 1.61

• Coalition - 2.00

Odds correct at 16.30, March 28 GMT

Teal MP Monique Ryan is running again in Kooyong and is up against a new Liberal opponent in Amelia Hamer. 

Kooyong is a fascinating seat after Ryan toppled former government treasurer Josh Frydenberg at the last election.

It is a largely conservative seat that shunned the Liberals last time out. Ryan has had three years to prove herself to the electorate and generally has good support. 

However, her campaign has already been dogged by a minor scandal in which her husband was spotted trashing Liberal signs in the east-Melbourne division.

Hamer is 2.0 to beat Ryan to the seat and has widespread support from the Liberal party. Hamer’s main attack line on Ryan is that she is too closely aligned with the Green Party.

Ryan is popular in the division but her odds are likely to fluctuate.

Solomon (NT)

• ALP - 1.50

• Coalition - 2.50

Odds correct at 16.30, March 28 GMT

Labor earned an 8.4% majority in Solomon when Luke Gosling successfully defended his seat against Country Liberal candidate Tina Macfarlane. Now he’s up against Lisa Bayliss, who is a 2.50 underdog to win here.

Bayliss stands a good chance as Solomon’s boundaries are redrawn to take in more Darwin suburbs that generally back the Liberals.

Gosling doesn’t seem worried, telling ABC News: “People in those suburbs, not only have I already represented them, I'm so proud and ready to represent them formally in the federal parliament.”

Dutton has his eyes on Solomon as a key battleground seat. The odds are almost certain to narrow here, with Bayliss ready to take the economic argument to Gosling.