Northern Territory Election Betting Backs Labor to Crush Liberals In 2024

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Northern Territory Election Betting Backs Labor to Crush Liberals In 2024
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Betting sites have cut Labor’s odds of winning the 2024 Northern Territory state election as the left-leaning party continues to win seats across Australia.

Labor is on a roll right now after winning in Victoria, New South Wales and the federal election in recent months. 

Next year voters in Northern Territory and Queensland will head to the polls, and there’s a very real possibility both states result in labor majorities.

The country turned against the Liberal/National coalition last year but there are pockets of Australia where the Liberals still hold firm.

Yet it doesn’t look like Northern Territory will be flipping orange any time soon as Labor’s Natasha Fyles seeks to win more seats than the 13 they currently hold.

There’s still more than a year to go until voters from Darwin to Alice Springs vote for their new state government. Yet bookies are already confident about what the outcome will be.

Northern Territory Election Betting

Indeed, the Northern Territory odds have shifted in the last couple of months to reflect even better on the Australian Labor Party ALP. 

Ladbrokes had set the governing party odds of 1.50 to win in 2024 and that price has now fallen to 1.40. This suggests a 71.4% likelihood of Labour retaining power.

Meanwhile, Liberal leader Lia Finocchiaro needs a big jump from the eight won in 2020 to land a majority here. 

There are only 25 seats to contest in Northern Territory, and the Liberals are some way off the required 13 for a majority.

The bookies have therefore opted to widen their odds on a Liberal win, to a new price of 2.75. There's also a wide price of 34.00 on any other party somehow securing the minimum 13 seats required for a majority. In reality this is a shoot-out between the ALP and the Liberals that Fyles should win.

A good example of what to expect next year was on display in March during the Arafura by-election. This local election captured the attention of both major parties, who pumped resources into every ballot.

Labor won convincingly in the end. The issues centred around infrastructure and road services, as well as community access, improving housing and health services. 

There was a feeling in Arafura that is reflected across the state, that the national government has somewhat forgotten about the north of the country.

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Who Will Win Northern Territory Election?

It is this sense of neglect that the Liberals will hope runs in their favour the closer we get to election day. Northern Territory’s population is growing but federal spending isn’t keeping pace. 

It doesn’t matter that Labor has only been in federal power for a little more than a year, the focus is on the governing presence to prove they’re worth keeping.

Arafura stuck with Labor but there was little change to the previous election. If Labour stands still over the coming 12 months then the Liberals will feel they have a chance to retake ground across the state.

The reason for the bookies shortening their odds on the ALP is almost certainly because of time. So long as the status quo continues in the polls then Labor’s odds will steadily fall as we inch towards vote day.

But there’s a lot of time between now and that day. Queensland is also seeking to stage a state election next year and the Coalition is polling much better there. 

If interest from right-wing voters in Queensland can spread north then it could impact this election too.

Northern Territory Election Issues

The Northern Territory state election campaigns are likely to be run on traditional issues. 

Politicians will need to be across their brief on the economy, housing, access to healthcare and public spending. 

Environmental issues are also of major concern - as they have been in other state elections - and this could define the Northern Territory vote.

Indeed, ABC report that the conservatives in Northern Territory are weighing up their green policies, in the expectation of this being a key battleground. 

That’s a big turnaround from when a CLP member campaigning in Darwin a few years ago rubbished the notion of man-made climate change.

“Our minds are certainly open to new and innovative policy going forward,” Finocchiaro said last year when asked about her party’s green plans.

Granted, it’s unlikely any conservative party would ditch its base and plump for a fully renewable energy policy, but it’s an indication that the dial could shift towards the CLP if they put up the right fight.

How Northern Territory State Elections Work

Parliament House Darwin

Northern Territory has a population of just over 250,000 and there are 25 seats up for grabs in August 2024. 

The one-chamber state legislative assembly is usually split between Labor and the Liberals, with a few independent seats dotted in-between.

Members are voted in via an instant run-off vote with full preferential options for voters. That means a voter must give their preference on every name on the ballot paper. 

Any unresolved vote after the first round then takes into account second preference, and so on, until a winner is declared.

Parliaments are fixed for four-year terms and voting on the next election commences in August. 

The dominance of Labor and Liberal figures on the ballot papers means political betting sites believe very few independents or figures from other parties get onto the state assembly.

However, four independents currently have seats in the state. That’s not enough to team up with opposition members to outvote the governing ALP, but it does provide a louder opposition voice on various issues.

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