Australian Election Betting Odds: Coalition Running Out Of Time To Beat Labor
Betting sites believe the Labor Party is on course to win a majority at this week’s Australian election and boot Scott Morrison’s Coalition out of government.
Labor has led in the polls for more than a year as Australians seek an alternative to the centre-right Morrison government that has controversially steered the country through the Covid-19 pandemic.
After six weeks of electoral campaigning the Lib/Nat Coalition has done little to eat into Labor’s polling lead, which currently sits at around eight points.
Australians headed to the voting booths on Thursday to determine the next government, with aged care, manufacturing, economic spending and the rising cost of living all on their minds.
What’s more, many appear to have also made their decision on who to vote for long before the campaigns got underway, with Labor leading the two-party preferred vote polls ever since December 2020.
And bookmakers are shortening further their odds on a Labor victory.
Australian Election Odds
According to political betting sites, Labor has an 83% (1.2) chance of winning the federal election. That is a climb from 71% within the space of just five days and highlights just how unlikely the bookies think a Morrison victory is.
Indeed, bar a slight improvement in the odds when the election campaign got underway, the Coalition has suffered worsening prices throughout the last two months.
Bookies gave Morrison a 38% chance of remaining prime minister last week. That price has now inflated to 3.75 (26.7% probability).
According to The Australian, Labor can expect a majority of 80 seats if the election goes the way of the polls. That would be the party’s biggest victory since 2007.
Australian Election Issues
Around six million Australians are expected to have voted in this election before the actual polling day on Saturday, May 21. More than a million are likely to vote via post, while others can vote in-person at voting booths already open to the public.
This means that much of the late campaigning for both Morrison and his adversary Anthony Albanese will appeal to a smaller audience – and perhaps make less of an impact.
Morrison has based his campaign around economic advancement, with greater pledges for industry investment. A last-ditch housing policy initiative aimed at tackling high prices and boosting home ownership may be too late to convince young renters to flip their vote.
However, the PM has fallen behind Albanese on inflation, healthcare and aged care. Albanese has campaigned for greater gender equality, particularly in the workplace, and has pledged funds to tackle the cost of living crisis.
Locally, there is also a $2.2bn pledge for investment in the eastern section of the Victorian government’s Suburban Rail Loop. Victoria’s parliament already has a Labor majority and the state election is scheduled for this November.
Polls close at 6pm on election day and then the counting will begin to discover Australia’s government for the next three years. The Coalition has been in power since 2013 but the bookies aren’t expecting an extension to that record.
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