Australian Election Betting Odds: Coalition Closing In On Labor
The Australian election odds are holding firm on an expected Labor victory despite a late surge from the Liberal/National Coalition in the latest polls.
In recent weeks Labor’s polling lead over Scott Morrison’s Coalition has steadily declined – so much so that betting sites began to shift their odds on who will win the Australian election.
The slight shift in the betting markets led some analysts to believe Morrison could draw level with Anthony Albanese by election day on May 21, and perhaps even steal an advantage over his rival.
But in recent days the government’s momentum appears to have come to a halt. And indeed, some political betting sites are even bringing Labor’s odds back in.
Right now, there is no splitting the two main parties in the primary vote, but Labor has a 54-46 point lead in the two-party preferred vote. And with time running out for Morrison, bookmakers are beginning to act.
Australian Election Odds
According to Betfair, Labor’s chances of winning the 2022 Australian election have increased from 58% to 63% within a week.
That may not sound like much, but the positive shift puts an end to a weeks-long downward spiral. Indeed, back in early March odds compilers had Labor at 78% likely to win the election.
And these latest odds of 1.57 could well fall further. The fresh bounce for the opposition appears to signify a growing confidence among punters that Albanese will hold out and be sworn into power this May.
However, the bookies aren’t yet shifting their prices on Morrison. The Coalition are 1.83 to win the upcoming election and it is usually expected that if one party enjoys an odds squeeze, the other suffers from their price widening.
But this isn’t happening yet. Why? Most likely because it is bettors who have driven down the Labor price, and the Coalition’s is yet to keep up. Around 63% of all wagers on this market are favouring an opposition victory this May – and punter confidence is what often drives the market prices.
Australian Election Issues
Campaigning kicked off in mid-April with focus on the economy and the cost of living crisis. Inflation and unemployment are under the spotlight and Morrison has scrambled to defend his government’s record. Albanese, in return, claimed costs are outstripping wages for working people.
Albanese has also been in Covid-19 isolation for the early days of the campaign - which remarkably doesn’t seem to have harmed his chances of winning the election.
But campaigning is set to really heat up this week. Further election debates are set to follow after Albanese narrowly won the first battle, and issues likely to be raised centre around education, healthcare and immigration.
Indeed, healthcare appears to be the major issue neither side has dominated yet.
Morrison’s government effectively oversaw the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic but, with infection rates now falling, the debate is opening up to wider healthcare issues.
Labor wants to spend A$2.5bn over four years to improve regulation of the industry and increase nursing numbers. The Coalition is sticking to its A$1.1bn pledge to improve elderly care, which was spelled out in the 2021 budget.
Naturally both parties are backing a wage increase for care workers. Saying otherwise is a guaranteed vote loser, even if they then renege on the promise at a later date.
How the Australian Election Works
Australians will vote in 2022 for a new federal government, with all seats in the lower chamber and roughly half in the upper chamber being contested.
Voters generally use a ranked system of voting, where each constituent places in order their preferred choice of candidate, with their top choice being number ‘1’.
If a candidate secures a 50% + 1 majority from these first votes, then they win the seat. If not, candidates with the fewest votes are eliminated and any ballot papers that preferred them are re-allocated to the remaining candidates who were cast as a second preference. The process continues in this way until a majority is reached.
76 seats are required for a majority, at which point the main party’s leader will become prime minister.
Meanwhile, the Senate is elected in roughly the same way and acts as an upper house in parliament, to address, amend and eventually approve bills from the House of Representatives.
The 2022 Australian Federal election will take place by May 21. It means betting sites still have a number of weeks to shuffle their Australian election betting prices.
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