2022 State Of Origin Game II Preview, Betting Odds & Analysis

2022 State Of Origin Game II Preview, Betting Odds & Analysis
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State of Origin has gone west. More specifically, to Perth, where the magnificent Optus Stadium will host its second Origin game in its short history and betting sites are ready for kick-off already. 

60,000 are expected in for the game, which follows Queensland’s exciting win in Sydney a fortnight ago.

Is New South Wales coach Brad Fittler spooked by the 16-10 result? Maybe, if his wholesale change policy is to be read into. Fittler has made no less than seven changes to his side, although two are injury-enforced. 

Meanwhile, Queensland coach Billy Slater has only made two injury-enforced changes of his own.

What Happened In The Last Game

Queensland’s 16-10 win in Sydney was built off the back of some absolutely relentless performances from a couple of new players. 

After Slater surprisingly subbed starting prop Josh Papalii after only 15 minutes, many thought Queensland were in panic mode. Instead, the introduction of rookie Patrick Carrigan was a masterstroke, as the Broncos forward harassed the NSW halves partnership. 

Carrigan’s intensity was matched by that of Cowboys utility Reuben Cotter, with both men combining for 85 tackles at a 90% effectiveness rate.

While they and the rest of the Queensland forwards did an incredible job on defence, the game was broken open by another rookie. Winger Selwyn Cobbo had a lot of expectations on him and he delivered, putting in a lovely kick under pressure for Valentine Holmes to score a crucial first half try.

New South Wales did manage to push the game to the very last play, but they will be bitterly disappointed with the loss in front of 80,000 fans at Accor Stadium. However, they are 1.73 favourites in the State of Origin betting to score a victory on Sunday night. 

Questions about the effectiveness of the Panthers halves pairing of Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai linger, neither player was able to transfer their dominant club form to the Origin fixture. 

The Teams

Despite that, both have been retained for this game. There is a change to the New South Wales spine, with Damian Cook moved to the bench and Api Koroisau starts at hooker. It is Koroisau’s second Origin game, after he debuted in last year’s third game.

Fittler has sent a signal about his side’s plan around kicking on the fifth tackle, with the selection of Matt Burton. 

The Bulldogs centre is known for his trademark towering bombs that will put the Queensland back three on notice, he will have hard-running Stephen Crichton lining up in the other centre position.

The most exciting prospect is that of Sosifa Talakai off the interchange bench, the Sharks forward has been in bruising form this season.

The big blow for Slater and his Queensland team is the loss of Cotter, who is out with injury.  However, they have a ready-made replacement in the experienced Jai Arrow. Winger Xavier Coates is also out, so Murray Taulagi from the Cowboys slots in to replace him. 

The spine is unchanged, with hopes that Cameron Munster can back up his huge game in Sydney with another inspirational performance.

Line-Ups:

New South Wales Blues: 1. James Tedesco (c) (Sydney Roosters), 2. Brian To’o (Penrith Panthers), 3. Matt Burton (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), 4. Stephen Crichton (Penrith Panthers), 5. Daniel Tupou (Sydney Roosters), 6. Jarome Luai (Penrith Panthers), 7. Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers), 8. Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos), 9. Apisai Koroisau (Penrith Panthers), 10. Jake Trbojevic (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles), 11. Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs), 12. Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers), 13. Isaah Yeo (Penrith Panthers).

Interchange: 14. Damien Cook (South Sydney Rabbitohs), 15. Angus Crichton (Sydney Roosters), 16. Junior Paulo (Parramatta Eels), 17. Siosifa Talakai (Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks).

Queensland Maroons: 1. Kalyn Ponga (Newcastle Knights), 2. Selwyn Cobbo (Brisbane Broncos), 3. Valentine Holmes (North Queensland Cowboys), 4. Dane Gagai (Newcastle Knights), 5. Murray Taulagi (North Queensland Cowboys), 6. Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm), 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (Manly Sea Eagles), 8. Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters), 9. Ben Hunt (St George Illawarra Dragons), 10. Josh Papalii (Canberra Raiders), 11. Kurt Capewell (Brisbane Broncos), 12. Felise Kaufusi (Melbourne Storm), 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Gold Coast Titans).

Interchange: 14. Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm), 15. Jai Arrow (South Sydney Rabbitohs), 16. Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos), 17. Jeremiah Nanai (North Queensland Cowboys).

Where Game 2 Will Be Won

The neutral venue of Optus Stadium will probably be an even split of blue and maroon, however New South Wales will take heart that the last time they played in Perth, they recorded a comfortable win.

But really, that’s about it given that their backs are squarely against the wall as they face a Queensland side determined to get revenge for last year’s embarrassingly one-sided series.

The assignment for the New South Wales forwards is pretty straightforward: give Luai and Cleary more room to work with and stop Queensland’s momentum. 

The pressure that will come on their halves will be something that will need to be dealt with early and often.

For Queensland, it’s just a case of picking up where they left off and they are a 2.15 shot with the best rugby betting sites to secure back-to-back wins. 

It’s hard to go past one of their wingers for a first try scorer, both Cobbo and Taulagi should benefit from the form of Munster, Cherry-Evans and their centres inside them.  Maroons.

Previous Results:

QLD series wins: 22

NSW series wins: 16

Drawn series: 2

Last Five Series:

2021 NSW 2-1

2020 QLD 2-1

2019 NSW 2-1

2018 NSW 2-1

2017 QLD 2-1

2021 Results:

Game 1: NSW 50 QLD 6

Game 2: NSW 26 QLD 0

Game 3: QLD 20 NSW 18

2022 Result:

Game 1: QLD 16 NSW 10

Trivia

The first State of Origin match was played in 1980, after the old state representative series had been played under the selection rules that dictated that players play for the state that they played their club football for. NSW had long dominated due to their superior competition, but Queensland memorably won the first ever Origin game by 20-10.

Lang Park, now known as Suncorp Stadium, has hosted the most Origin games with 54. Accor Stadium in Sydney is second with 26, having taken over from the old Sydney Football Stadium in 1999. The largest crowd for an Origin game is 91,513 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in 1995.

The most tries in a match is three, which is shared by nine players. The only man to achieve the feat twice is NSW’s Tom Trbojevic in 2019 and 2021.

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