2023 State Of Origin Game III Preview, Betting Odds & Analysis
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State of Origin III Predictions:
When: Wednesday 12 July, 8:05pm (AEST)
Where: Accor Stadium, Sydney (capacity 83,500)
Watch: Nine Network, 9Now
Best Odds: New South Wales 2.30, Queensland 1.65
The Queensland Maroons swept the New South Wales Blues aside in Brisbane last time out to maintain a dominance that has now seen them claim the title in 14 of the most recent 18 seasons.
They’re now out on the prowl for the first sweep by either team since Darren Lockyer’s side in 2010 and return to a venue that has had plenty of tremendously tight tussles in the last decade.
From the teams sharing 6-4 victories in 2014 and 2016 to last year’s 16-10 triumph to the Maroons in Game 1, Sydney’s Olympic stadium rarely sees a one-sided affair these days.
Australian betting sites are anticipating a much closer game based on the home ground advantage, and there are plenty of key stats pointing in that direction.
The Numbers That Matter
- There have been just seven clean sweeps in 40 years of State of Origin
- The last four series with a 2-0 leader saw the home state of the day win to make the series score 2-1
- Just two of the last 13 Origin games at Accor Stadium produced 35+ total points (average: 27)
- Similarly, all but one of the last 10 Origin matches at the venue was decided by a margin of greater than six points
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is the only player to have scored tries in both games in 2023
New South Wales Team News
1. James Tedesco, 2. Brian To'o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Bradman Best, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Cody Walker, 7. Mitchell Moses, 8. Jake Trbojevic, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Keaon Koloamatangi, 13. Cameron Murray
It’s no surprise to see Brad Fittler has made some sweeping changes with the series already having been decided, and in fact the entire forward pack has been turned over as part of an enormous eight changes to his starting 13.
Bradman Best is the most notable addition to the backs, making his Origin debut after picking up a hat-trick in Newcastle’s 66-0 demolition of the Bulldogs.
Liam Martin, Damien Cook and Cameron Murray are the two forwards promoted from the bench, whilst the other three new forwards (Jake Trbojevic, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Keaon Koloamatangi) are new additions to the matchday squad.
Trbojevic missed the first two fixtures with a calf injury and will make his 16th Origin appearance over a space of seven seasons, though it’s bitter-sweet with brother Tom out through injury.
Queensland Team News
1. AJ Brimson, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Valentine Holmes, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Murray Taulagi, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans, 8. Reuben Cotter, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, 11. David Fifita, 12. Jeremiah Nanai, 13. Patrick Carrigan
Meanwhile, Billy Slater has opted to retain the majority of his starting 13 as reward for their efforts.
Fullback Reece Walsh is serving a three-game suspension for verbally abusing referee Chris Butler during a league game last month, with Gold Coast’s AJ Brimson taking the number one jersey.
Harry Grant and Jeremiah Nanai are both stepping up from the interchange in place of Ben Hunt, who has dropped to the bench, and Thomas Flegler who had picked up a foot injury on club duty.
New South Wales v Queensland: What Could Happen?
Back on home soil with a completely different side, many pundits and rugby betting sites alike are anticipating a spirited showing from a New South Wales team with nothing to lose.
The aforementioned stats about low scoring and narrow margins in Origin football at Accor Stadium point to the closest contest of the series so far, but there are a lot of unknowns resulting from the Blues flipping over the majority of their previous lineup.
If Brad Fittler isn’t already on the Origin scrapheap, he’ll be orchestrating a much improved defensive display after their heaviest score conceded in eight years.
This is the first so-called ‘dead’ game to be played in Sydney since 2016, which doesn’t offer a lot of insight, and given how disjointed the Blues have been throughout this series it’s hard to have confidence in them even at home.
Not willing to take them on in case of an inspired performance at home, we’re instead going to follow the low scoring trend in Sydney and take the ‘unders’.
New South Wales full back James Tedesco comes into this game with tries in four of his last five NRL outings - three of them in defeat - and has found the line in two of the last three Origin games at Accor Stadium. 3.25 with Unibet is the most generous price you’ll get at time of writing for him to do so again.
Tip: James Tedesco to score a try - 3.25 With Bluebet
Value: Under 41.5 total points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
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