Victoria Election Odds Tips Labor To Beat Coalition To Majority

Victoria Election Odds Tips Labor To Beat Coalition To Majority
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Labor is leading the 2022 Victorian state election betting markets with four months to go before voters head to the polls – and betting sites aren’t expecting a Coalition bounce any time soon.

The Victorian state election takes place on November 26 with all 88 seats in the lower Assembly and 40 seats in the upper Council being voted on.

Labor currently enjoys a majority in the lower chamber and most seats in the upper. They need at least 45 seats for an Assembly majority this time around, which would then give them the right to appoint the state premier.

Campaigning is yet to get properly underway but that has not prevented candidates from across the political spectrum from sounding out their likelihood of winning each individual contest.

More than four million Victorians are eligible to vote in the state election later this year. And bookmakers think the result is only going one way.

Victoria Election Odds 2022

According to political betting sites, Victorians are more likely to vote for a Labor majority than any other outcome. The odds of 1.66 reflect a 60% chance of that outcome – and even a Labor minority is priced way out at 4.0 (25%).

Labor has been the most powerful party in Victorian state politics since winning the 2014 election. Since then they have grown their popularity in the state, to the expense of the Coalition.

Indeed, the bookies reckon a Coalition win has just a 20% chance of happening. Lib-Nat leader Matthew Guy needs 18 more seats than the 27 he currently has, and that’s without losing any to the Greens.

Green issues have spiked in recent months due to an increasing number of bushfires across the country. The Greens, though, are 69.0 to win this election.

Victorian Election Issues

ALP leader Daniel Andrews has his party leading the polls 59.5% to 40.5% against the Coalition. That represents a 2.2% increase in support for the governing party from its 2018 election victory.

Premier Andrews has enjoyed a spike in approval ratings and appears to be the preferred choice over Guy. In fact, 63.5% of Victorians have a positive view of his performance as premier so far.

Issues over the state of healthcare and health services, plus the economy and spending, are what Andrews is struggling with, however. 

Indeed, his detractors claim “allegations of corruption and lack of accountability and transparency, and the secrecy of the government” are why they won’t be voting Labor.

But generally there is a positive feeling from Labor voters – and there is likely to be enough of them to secure Andrews another working majority.

A number of right-wing leaders are also lining up to fight at the ballot box. And while none will garner enough support for a majority, there could be a few seats up for grabs. 

Candidates from the Great Australian Party and the Australian Federation Party could well pull votes away from the Coalition, making it even harder for Victoria’s core opposition to combat another expectant Labor government.