Casino News Roundup: BetMGM Cuts Guidance & Prediction Markets Poach Bettors
Welcome to the Casino Daily News Roundup - your briefing on the latest news from the global casino industry. We bring you the biggest stories from across the sector, covering everything from major business deals and revenue figures to new openings and regulatory developments.
BetMGM Cuts Revenue Guidance As Prediction Markets Poach Its Sports Bettors
BetMGM has become the first major US operator to formally quantify the damage prediction markets are doing to its business.
The company posted Q1 2026 net revenue of $696million - up 6% year-on-year but 14% below analyst consensus expectations of $810m - and cut its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.9billion to $3.1bn, down from a prior range of $3.1bn to $3.2bn.
CEO Adam Greenblatt cited "player-friendly sports results" and sharply rising customer acquisition costs as the primary drivers of the miss - the latter attributed directly to prediction market platforms, which he named by name, describing their marketing as a deliberate campaign to poach licensed sportsbook customers.
The numbers tell the story plainly. By applying Kalshi's fee formula to its Q1 trading volumes, analysts at Citizens JMP Securities estimated that Kalshi generated around $304.9m from sports event contracts in Q1 alone - comfortably ahead of BetMGM's $203m in online sports betting revenue for the same period.
That comparison, Greenblatt acknowledged, reflects a structural competitive shift that BetMGM cannot easily counter.
The company holds casino licences in Nevada and other states, and has explicitly ruled out launching its own prediction market product on the grounds that doing so could jeopardise those licences.
Its three main rivals - DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics - have all launched prediction market offerings and are gaining ground. Monthly active users at BetMGM fell 9% year-on-year, though management insisted this was a deliberate strategic choice to shed low-value, promotion-heavy customers rather than involuntary churn. Handle per active user rose 23% and net gaming revenue per active rose 25%, lending some credibility to that framing.
iGaming remained the company's clear bright spot. Q1 iGaming revenue of $481m rose 9% year-on-year, driven by higher net gaming revenue per active player, exclusive content deals, and a planned Alberta launch on July 13.
Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $300m to $350m was maintained, though management guided toward the lower end of that range, with a path to $500m in adjusted EBITDA in 2027 reiterated.
For players who prefer regulated online casinos over the grey-area prediction market alternatives, BetMGM's iGaming portfolio continues to offer a broad and growing range of licensed options.
Evoke Warns UK Black Market Is Growing As Tax Rise Squeezes Regulated Operators
A significant warning buried within Evoke's full-year 2025 results - published today - is that illegal gambling operators are gaining ground in the UK, particularly in horse racing, as the gap between regulated and unregulated pricing widens.
The warning came as Evoke reported a loss after tax of £549.1m for 2025 - up 149% year-on-year - driven by a £440m impairment charge against its UK online and retail businesses. Revenue grew 2% to £1.78bn and adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to £356.2m.
UK online revenue fell 3% over the year, with CEO Per Widerström citing black market penetration alongside operator-friendly sports results in 2024 as the key headwinds.
The concern is straightforward: the doubling of Remote Gaming Duty from 21% to 40% in April widens the pricing gap between licensed and unlicensed operators, making offshore and illegal sites more attractive to price-sensitive customers.
Widerström confirmed talks with Bally's Intralot regarding a potential 50p-per-share takeover remain active, but declined to take analyst questions on the subject. The formal offer deadline is May 18.
BetMGM CEO Says Kalshi Is A Sportsbook And The Industry Should Regulate It Like One
The most pointed comment to emerge from any Q1 earnings call this week came from BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt, who said directly that Kalshi should be treated as a sports betting competitor - not a financial instrument - and that the sector's failure to regulate it as such is costing licensed operators real money.
Greenblatt said prediction market platforms are functioning as unlicensed sportsbooks while spending aggressively on customer acquisition, forcing licensed operators either to raise their own marketing budgets or concede ground.
The disclosure matters beyond BetMGM itself. It is the first time a major operator has quantified prediction market competition as a formal financial headwind in public earnings guidance - and it arrives as the Ninth Circuit prepares to rule on whether sports event contracts are legal under state gambling laws.
If the court rules against Kalshi, as legal observers widely expect, the competitive landscape could shift sharply. Until then, BetMGM says it will operate on the assumption that current market conditions persist throughout 2026.
Those looking to best online slots through properly licensed channels will find no shortage of regulated options on BetMGM's iGaming platform in the meantime.
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Las Vegas Strip Struggles While Neighbourhood Casinos Boom As Locals Stay Close To Home
A striking divide has emerged in Las Vegas. While the Strip continues to feel the pressure of falling tourist numbers - with parking costing $25 a night, resort fees reaching $50, and a bottle of water hitting $26 - neighbourhood casinos catering to local residents are quietly thriving.
A Bloomberg feature this week highlighted the divergence, with properties such as Station Casinos' Red Rock Resort, Green Valley Ranch, and the newly opened Durango all reporting strong results as Las Vegas residents increasingly opt for their local casino over the expense of a Strip visit.
The dynamic reflects the K-shaped recovery playing out across the market. Strip properties reliant on out-of-town leisure visitors - particularly mid-tier venues such as Circus Circus, Excalibur and Flamingo - continue to struggle under the weight of softening international tourism and cost-sensitive domestic visitors.
Luxury Strip properties and locals-focused operators, by contrast, are both outperforming.
LVCVA CEO Steve Hill acknowledged the split this week, noting that higher-income visitors have held up well while budget-conscious travellers remain under pressure.
MGM and Caesars' newly launched all-inclusive packages are a direct attempt to bridge that gap - offering bundled deals at their mid-tier properties to win back cost-conscious visitors who have drifted away.
