Jacinda Ardern Seventh Favourite To Win 2021 Nobel Peace Prize

Jacinda Ardern Seventh Favourite To Win 2021 Nobel Peace Prize
© PA

Jacinda Ardern’s chances of winning the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize have not improved in the final few days before the award is announced – but the New Zealand prime minister has a new rival in the race!

Ms. Ardern was initially one of the frontrunners in the Nobel Peace Prize odds to win the gong this year, having struck an impressive tone across the world with her efforts to combat the coronavirus pandemic.

A growing call from New Zealand to address climate change issues further spurred on Ardern, who at one point was the fourth favourite with online betting sites.

But in recent weeks a shift towards institutions and campaign groups has seen the bookies inflate their price on the PM getting the award. And in the final few days, before the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize is announced, Ardern has been joined by a familiar face as an outsider in the betting markets.

According to the latest odds, departing German chancellor Angela Merkel now stands as much chance of earning the Nobel Peace Prize as Ardern. Ms. Merkel is stepping down from her position after 16 years in charge of Germany’s Bundestag – and her decision to do so has impacted the betting odds.

2021 Nobel Peace Prize Betting Odds

CANDIDATEOddsPROBABILITY
WHO5/444.4%
Greta Thunberg8/111.1%
Reporters Without Borders8/111.1%
Alexei Navalny12/17.7%
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya12/17.7%
UNFCCC12/17.7%
Jacinda Ardern16/15.9%
Angela Merkel16/15.9%
Nathan Law Kwun-Chung16/15.9%
Palestinian Center for Human Rights16/15.9%
Joe Biden20/14.8%

According to the bookies, Merkel and Ardern both stand a 5.9% chance of being awarded the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize. That suggests only a slim likelihood of it actually going to one of the world leaders, and historically politicians rarely get the award anyway.

However, that’s not to say either figure is completely out of the running. The Nobel Peace Prize is given to the person or entity judged to have “done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.”

Both Merkel and Ardern can stake a claim to have done this over the past 12 months.

Yet so can others. Environmental campaigner Greta Thunberg is the joint-second favourite to win this award following her efforts to highlight the destructive effects of climate change. In recent weeks her price has slimmed to 8/1 amid a growing energy crisis in Europe.

Russian opposition political leader Alexei Navalny and Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya both have a 7.7% chance of winning. While Navalny is currently imprisoned on questionable charges in Russia, Tsikhanouskaya is taking on Belarus’ authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko. Both would be worthy winners of this award, which would further highlight their struggles against authoritarian rule.

However, it appears almost certain that the actual 2021 Nobel Peace Prize winner will be the World Health Organisation, and in particular COVAX and GAVI. These institutions helped create and distribute the coronavirus vaccine that has so far saved millions of lives this year. The odds suggest a 44% chance of the WHO earning the award, which would come a year after the World Food Programme was recognised for combating hunger across the globe.


When Is The 2021 Nobel Peace Prize?

The 2021 Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded on 8 October in Oslo, Norway. As is tradition, it will be presented by the Norwegian Nobel Committee and carries a reward of £750,000.

Usually the prize money is donated to charity or used by the winning organisation or person to help fund further good causes. It can also be shared. In 2018 Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad shared the prize for their efforts “to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war and armed conflict”.

The actual award ceremony is not scheduled to take place until Oslo on 10 December 2021, the anniversary of Alfred Nobel's death.

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