How Long Will Donald Trump Last As US President?

Betting sites have again shifted their odds against Donald Trump completing his second term as US president in the wake of another round of controversy over the Jeffrey Epstein files.

Trump has relented to mounting pressure from his base to release documents related to sex trafficker Epstein, who died in jail in 2019.

That is despite the president’s best efforts to dampen the significance of two investigations into Epstein and his supposed associates.

In a rare sign of Trump losing power over the Republican party, how his own lawmakers in Congress pushed to release the files. 

While a Florida judge has prevented the release of a mid-2000s investigation for now, it’s likely that details of Epstein’s crimes will eventually be made public.

Trump, angered by the MAGA movement pushing against him to release the files, headed to Scotland for a short trip to open his new golf course – and discuss international politics.

This relieved some of the heat felt in Washington DC over the past few weeks but the president seems unable to shake off the interest in Epstein.

And this is leading some betting apps to nudge their odds on Trump’s longevity.

Donald Trump Odds

The latest Trump odds make for concerning reading for the president. He was once 1/4 (80% likelihood) to complete his second four-year term in the White House. Now, those odds with William Hill have widened to 1/2 (66.7%).

That’s a huge shift in just a few weeks and is almost wholly down to the Epstein saga that is eating the Republican party from the inside.

Some of Trump’s health issues were also recently revealed, highlighting his age. 

At 79, he is on course to become the country’s oldest president by the time he leaves office.

That’s assuming he does cede power in 2029. The bookies reckon there’s a 14.3% chance he loses the presidency in 2026, at odds of 6/1. 

Trump is also 9/2 (18.2%) to walk in 2028 – the year of the next US election.

But how realistic is it that Trump either gives up power or is forced to quit the presidency? For many punters, quite high.

Will Trump Keep His Job?

Indeed, political betting sites like to speculate, and the house of cards can come tumbling down very quickly in politics.

Trump won’t suddenly lose his presidency like how Boris Johnson and Liz Truss surrendered the prime ministership of the UK. However, he could come under so much pressure that he eventually quits or is ousted.

The pressure may or may not come from the Epstein files. It seems highly unlikely that Trump is linked to anything incriminating within the files. 

However, his past association with Epstein harms his brand and, in turn, the electability of his Republican candidates across the country. 

This is a problem for Trump heading into the 2026 US midterms, where the Democrats are favourites to win a majority in the House, and could edge the Senate, too.

If that were to happen, the Democrats could seek to bring impeachment proceedings against Trump. 

They would need genuine grounds to impeach the president and a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict him, but at Evens (50% probability), the bookmakers evidently think it’s possible. 

Trump could also choose to quit the presidency, perhaps in 2028 to give vice president JD Vance a run-up to the election. However, that appears unlikely unless a huge scandal befell the businessman.

Outside of these two eventualities, the only viable means for Trump to surrender power is on health grounds. 

The White House doctor says he’s fit and healthy, while his “venous insufficiency diagnosis” is common for people his age.

Again, health seems an unlikely route out of the Oval Office – especially as Joe Biden remained in power when his health was evidently failing him.

The bookies reckon there’s a small chance at 14/1 (6.7%) that Trump seeks a third term. It seems unlikely given the amount of chaos that’s unfolded in America since his re-election.

Instead, Trump will soon begin looking for a successor as the Republican primaries take shape.