Donald Trump Exit Odds: 2026 Exit Odds Hit New Low

Whether the subject matter is Venezuela, Greenland, NATO, Jeffrey Epstein or mass protests at home following the fatal shooting of a Minneapolis civilian by ICE, Donald Trump is already dominating the 2026 news cycle. 

There are no shortage of options specifically regarding the US president on betting sites, either. 

Regarding his exit date, Star Sports offers 8/15 on Trump serving a full term, which would involve leaving office in 2029 or later. 

Donald Trump Exit Date Odds:

As explained previously on these pages, such odds understate the chance based on historical precedent - although nothing about Trump's political career to date chimes with historical precedent.

There is a big difference of opinion regarding the specific year. 

Bet365 offers just 3/1 that he leaves office in 2026, compared to 5/1 with Ladbrokes. 

The former is the shortest odds any incumbent US president has been to leave office in a year which didn't follow a general election.

Deteriorating Health Remains Live Topic

Speculation persists about Trump's health. To address that, Trump gave a New Year interview to the Wall Street Journal, in which he played down his known venous insufficiency condition and acknowledged regularly taking a high aspirin dosage as a precaution against heart attacks.

That was never likely to quell speculation. Reiteration of his fast food diet, along with his rambling speeches and apparent falling asleep at numerous events, only serve to reinforce doubts. 

California Governor and Democratic frontrunner for 2028, Gavin Newsom, challenged Trump to a public cognitive test.

One must remember that every slip is amplified by click-hungry media, such as when he struggled to walk down the stairs of Air Force One last week. 

Such signs were also evident during his first term. On the 2024 campaign trail, Trump repeatedly misnamed opponents and he has been accused of having dementia for years. 

Of course, at 79 years old, deteriorating health is an inevitable talking point, but on the flipside his public schedule remains very busy. 

This isn't quite the same as Joe Biden being hidden away by his advisers. 

These short odds about 2026 make no appeal whatsoever. The other potential cause of an early exit - politics - just doesn't seem realistic in the short term. 

Even as he reverses decades of Republican foreign policy - threatening NATO, allying with Russia, apparently colluding with a communist regime in Venezuela - there is little pushback from his own party. 

The idea that his Cabinet would invoke the 25th Amendment, or Congressional Republicans would sanction his impeachment, is for the birds. 

Nobody on the right has survived in politics after picking a fight with Trump. Marjorie Taylor Greene's rebellion lasted just a few days before she announced her resignation from a safe Georgia district. 

Potential critics will have noted that and will announce their retirement before going public.

Longer-Term Looks Bleak

Nevertheless, political fortunes do change quickly and what happens after 2026 remains uncertain. 

Assuming the mid-terms take place - no certainty, as he could invoke the Insurrection Act to cancel them, in response to protests - they are likely to be disastrous for his party. 

Before they take place, Republicans in swing districts must manage a perilous balancing act between winning their party's nomination and defending their seat in Congress.

Trump's various foreign policy adventures may well fracture his coalition and are generally counter to domestic electoral interests. Voters are far more motivated by the cost of living and healthcare.

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Epstein Scandal Will Run And Run

Plus, Trump will not be able to shake off the Epstein scandal. Less than 1% of the files have been released as yet and the little we have seen was damaging enough. 

His claim to have not flown on Epstein's jet has been shown to be a lie, and that's besides various unsubstantiated allegations.

Even without a smoking gun, the process gives Democrats a never-ending stream of opportunities to attack the administration over transparency and push for more answers. 

Senate Finance Committee member Ron Wyden, for instance, is pushing hard for Epstein's bank details and transactions with Trump. 

All this will carry through into 2027, by which time the Democrats may well control the House and have free rein to investigate and start an impeachment process.

Based on the assumption that none of the above issues are likely to improve beforehand, and the speculation is sure to persist, it makes good trading sense to take the 9/1 about the 2027 and 2028 options with Bet365. 

Make it through the end of this year, and it should be easy to lock in a profit on that 4/1 combined position.

How long do you think Trump will last as US president? Let us know your thoughts below!