How Long Will Donald Trump Last As US President?

Betting sites are growing confident that Donald Trump will complete his second term as US president as the Republican leader prepares to return to the White House.

Trump crushed Kamala Harris in November’s presidential election and has spent much of the proceeding weeks structuring his cabinet.

He has also overcome two landmark legal hurdles. 

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He avoided jail in his sentencing over the hush money case that dogged his years outside of office, while the Department of Justice has dropped its case into alleged election interference.

Trump is now free to serve his second term as president and political betting sites believe little will get in the way of him completing four more years in the Oval Office.

Yet there remains a slight doubt over Trump’s longevity that some punters are clinging to as we await the GOP leader’s inauguration.

Donald Trump Odds

The current Trump odds are shifting in the incoming president’s favour. 

William Hill recently cut their odds on Trump seeing out his presidency from 4/11 to 1/3. 

The fresh price suggests a 75% probability that the 78-year-old will complete four years in DC.

And yet, the majority of bettors (59%) believe Trump won’t stay the course. The odds of Trump exiting the White House before the next US election sit at 9/4, which suggests a 30.8% chance.

Will Trump complete his second term? It’s hard to guess right now. 

He certainly showed his age during points of the campaign last summer. He also dodged two assassination attempts.

The Secret Service can look forward to a busy four years, while Trump himself has a lot of work to do. 

His presidency could be both exhausting and dangerous.

That’s why his odds of 1/3 with betting apps to see out the presidency are both good and bad for Trump. 

They suggest he will complete four years, yet they’re also remarkably wide for a president of a safe democracy like the US.

Is there really a one-in-three chance that Trump would be overthrown?

Will Trump Complete His Term?

Well, yes. 

Perhaps the biggest issue for Trump – beyond his age and the threat of assassination – is the political machine in DC. 

The Republicans hold a majority in the House and Senate right now, but that could flip to the Democrats at the 2026 midterms.

If the Dems secure control of Congress then they would almost certainly seek to impeach Trump.

This is perhaps the biggest threat to Trump’s reign, which is why you can get odds of 5/1 on a Trump exit in 2028.

Of course, Trump could also choose to quit the job before the next election, which makes a 2028 exit the best bet right now. 

He can’t fight the next election but he’ll battle to fight a Republican successor in the Oval Office.

That successor might be his vice president JD Vance, who could earn a significant poll boost were he to succeed Trump during the 2028 campaign. 

In quitting the job early, Trump could give Vance all the tools he needs to beat off the Democrat candidate.

Trump holds all the cards right now but he’ll already be thinking about his exit strategy from the top job in the land. 

He’ll need a Republican president after he’s left the White House, in order to protect him from the Democrats.

The bookies currently think a Republican will win the next election, at 4/6 (60% probability). 

That’s good news for Trump. However, he’ll want to ensure those odds are much lower come the summer of 2028.

Trump beat Harris convincingly at the last election and the bookies backed him all the way. 

If the next Republican candidate trends along the same lines across the 2028 campaign then the Democrats won’t stand a chance.