How Long Will Donald Trump Last As US President?

Betting sites have shortened their odds on Donald Trump completing his second term as US president to a new low price.

Trump, 79, pushed through his “One Big Beautiful Bill” this July – a spending bill that significantly increases government debt to cover tax cuts across the country.

Republican lawmakers battled to push the bill – which also includes significant welfare and healthcare cuts – through Congress, but eventually won out after a few rebels held firm in their opposition to it.

Raising the national debt by a further £3 trillion goes against traditional, cautious conservative policy.

However, Trump was voted in on a promise to make Americans richer – and he views the simplest way to do that is to slash taxes.

Of course, increasing government debt hasn’t come without criticism. 

Trump and Elon Musk have sensationally fallen out over the issue, with the world’s richest man calling the bill “utterly insane” and promising to start his own party.

But that hasn’t affected Trump’s odds in recent days, which have responded positively to the spending bill.

Donald Trump Odds

Indeed, Virgin Bet has slashed its odds on Trump completing his second term from 1/2 to a historic low price of 1/4. 

Those new odds carry an 80% probability – a far cry from the 66.6% likelihood of Trump remaining president until 2029, which was set in the spring.

Political betting sites have reacted with plenty of volatility over Trump’s six months back in office but now seem to be settling down.

Other bookmakers are also shortening their Trump longevity odds, which suggests there’s confidence in the market that the president will remain in office.

In fact, William Hill has also widened its odds of Trump being impeached, from Evens (50%) to 6/5 (45.5%).

The odds of Trump to leave office in 2025 have widened to 20/1, while an exit in 2026 or 2027 now sits at 9/1 on betting apps. 

In effect, it appears as though bookmakers and punters have been convinced that Trump is here for the long haul.

Will Trump Complete His Second Term?

Trump certainly looks unlikely to lose his job as US president right now. 

His health appears to be holding up, and the level of security around greatly reduces the possibility of assassination – he dodged two attempts on his life in 2024.

Many Democrats have viewed impeachment as the only viable route to oust Trump from office before his time is up. Yet even that looks near-impossible.

The Dems would need large majorities in the House and Senate to impeach and find Trump guilty. 

They look on course to win a House majority at the 2026 midterms but not the two-thirds command they’d need in the Senate.

Last year’s Supreme Court ruling on presidential privilege also makes it hard to unseat a president for any act taken in office.

And so, with impeachment unlikely, it seems America is buckled in for four full years of Trump.

So far, the US president has played a tough game of poker with trading partners over tariffs, failed to end the war in Ukraine, waged into Iran’s war with Israel, threatened to invade Greenland and Panama, and instigated a nationwide round-up of undocumented migrants.

Trump’s second term was always going to be controversial and America’s political system effectively gives the president power to execute their authority as they deem fit.

Trump has plenty of loyalists in his cabinet and among Congressional Republicans, so can push ahead and sign executive orders without much opposition. 

Granted, the “Big, Beautiful Bill” took a few days to pass, but pass it did.

He isn’t going anywhere right now and the bookies know it. All the Democrats can hope for is a scandal that turns Trump’s loyalists against him.

Even a rival political party isn’t going to topple the president.