How Long Will Donald Trump Last As US President?

Betting sites have rebounded their odds on Donald Trump completing his second term, but scepticism remains among punters about the US president’s longevity.

Trump, 79, has seen his presidential odds swing wildly over the first nine months of his White House return.

Having once been as sure as 1/4 (80% certainty) of seeing out four years in the Oval Office, bookmakers recently overhauled their odds to indicate just a 60% probability.

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The shift came amid speculation over Trump’s connections to the disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, as well as a recent health update.

The high-profile killing of Trump supporter Charlie Kirk caused some bookies to widen their odds on the president remaining in power until 2029. After all, Trump survived two assassination attempts on the election trail last year.

But, after a rollercoaster few days, the betting markets appear to have settled down again – and it’s good news for the Republicans.

Donald Trump Odds

Ladbrokes was one of the first betting sites to significantly shift its Trump odds towards the end of August, going as short as 4/7 on him to be ousted before Inauguration Day 2029.

But the bookmaker has since drawn its odds back in, with Trump now 1/2 (66.6%) likely to complete his second term.

It’s a significant shift in the wake of the Kirk shooting, because it suggests punters are confident the incident will strengthen, not reduce, Trump’s resolve.

The president has a tough skin and deploys a combative approach to politics. 

Decisions such as implementing global tariffs and joining Israel in a bombing raid of Iran can spook the betting markets for a time, but they always seem to settle down again.

It looks like the markets on Trump’s longevity will continue to jump up and down between 1/2 and 1/4 on political betting sites without ever committing one way or the other.

And yet, in Trump World, punters can never be too sure of any political bet.

Will Trump Complete His Second Term?

There are a few reasons why two-thirds of bettors reckon Trump won’t complete four years in office.

The first is his age. At 79, he’s older than Joe Biden was at this stage of the Democrat’s presidency. 

Trump will be the oldest US president in history if he does complete his term – and Biden’s cognitive decline during his years in power was evident to see.

Trump’s all-or-nothing style is exhausting and a health report recently revealed he is suffering from chronic venous insufficiency – a not uncommon problem for people of his age.

Punters evidently reckon there is a chance Trump needs to stand down on health reasons. He is 4/1 with William Hill to step down in 2026.

Of course, in the light of the Kirk killing, punters may be factoring another assassination attempt into their bets on Trump’s longevity.

A further reason he may leave office early is through impeachment. Republican loyalists are highly unlikely to ever impeach Trump. So, the Democrats would need a significant majority in the House and Senate to do this.

They could wrest power of Congress from the GOP at the 2026 midterms, but the maths are not in the Dems’ favour in terms of impeachment. 

Plus, they would have to find something to impeach Trump on – a near-impossibility since the Supreme Court ruled on presidential immunity last year.

Finally, Trump could opt to cede power early and hand vice president JD Vance the reins. 

This would help Vance’s prospects of winning the 2028 US election and keeping a MAGA-focused Republican president in the White House.

It would certainly prevent the Democrats going after Trump once his four years are up, so it is also a viable option.

Saying that, Trump never gives up power lightly. While the odds suggest a one-in-three chance of him not completing his second term, most political pundits and commentators expect him to do so.

The betting markets are rife with speculation – but Trump’s job appears secure for now.

How long will Trump last as US president? Let us know your thoughts below!