Donald Trump Odds Cut: Full Second Term Likely Despite Government Shutdown

The odds on Donald Trump completing his second term as US president have been cut on betting sites despite the federal government shutdown.

Republican and Democrat lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on the latest funding bill by October 1, meaning most government employees are now on unpaid leave.

Trump is ready to fight off criticism and says the showdown will lead to “irreversible” lay-offs across the US government – something many Republicans support as a means of cutting federal spending.

And Trump holds such a strong position of power right now that a shutdown is unlikely to harm his political career.

In fact, Trump's position is as solid as ever to fulfil four years in the Oval Office.

Donald Trump Odds

Trump has a 69.2% chance of completing his second term, according to William Hill which recently shortened its price on Trump’s longevity to 4/9 after a difficult summer for the US president.

The media hype around the Jeffrey Epstein files took weeks to dissipate, while the murder of activist Charlie Kirk caused the odds on political betting sites to wobble.

But, as usual, Trump appears to have come out of the fire unscathed and is now seeking to advance both domestically and internationally into the autumn.

At home, he’s unlikely to be blamed for the federal government shutdown – the blame usually falls on the opposition party (the Democrats, in this case) for not playing ball with the current administration.

Abroad, Trump has drawn up a Gaza peace plan that seems almost viable. It has Israel’s backing and support from European nations. He’s now waiting to see if Hamas plays ball.

No wonder Trump is sitting pretty in the Oval Office.

His odds to complete a second term were 1/4 when he was inaugurated – a price that many punters considered too short. 

Over the past 10 months, Trump’s odds have fluctuated wildly and at one stage almost widened to Evens, before coming back in.

Now, it appears that Trump won’t be going anywhere soon.

Will Donald Trump Complete Second Term?

Indeed, despite health updates, two assassination attempts in 2024 and a gruelling schedule, Trump looks bulletproof right now.

He returned from his state visit to the UK full of energy and revelled in his appearance at the Ryder Cup.

But hardline politics is never too far from Trump’s reach. He has continued to deploy National Guard troops in Democrat-led cities. Portland, Chicago and Memphis are next up.

His stance during the government shutdown is straight out of the Trump playbook: don’t blink and force the opposition into submission.

He’s even hardening towards Russia, with reports suggesting he could approve the delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine.

Trump has all but wiped out any effective opposition. A Supreme Court judgement last year regarding presidential powers means he can rule the country as he sees fit.

Punters tracking Trump’s daily activity have concluded he is not going anywhere.

There’s very little chance of the Democrats impeaching him – even a majority in Congress would struggle to find Trump guilty of an act permitted outside the remit of his presidency.

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Health-wise, Trump (79) is showing signs of ageing but isn’t experiencing the mental decline that Joe Biden suffered during his term.

There is very little right now to suggest Trump won’t complete his second term. He has the political power to remain in office, the health to keep apace with the job and the determination to see off any rebellion.

No wonder he’s more worried about winning the Nobel Peace Prize than losing his job.

How long do you think Trump will last as US president? Let us know your thoughts below!