Donald Trump Exit Odds: Does Epstein Scandal Mark The Beginning Of The End?
It would not be hyperbolic to say that Donald Trump transformed political betting.
The entrance of a global celebrity, with an unrivalled ability to provoke reaction and monopolise media attention, into what was previously a relatively niche subculture, prompted huge growth in the options available on politics betting sites.
Liquidity soared to record levels when he was on the ballot, but unless he breaks yet another convention, Trump will never run again.
The caveat is important because, while the common understanding is that a US president cannot legally stand for a third term, he frequently flirts with the idea and hasn't ruled it out.
Trump 2028 merchandise is available. His former campaign manager and MAGA guru Steve Bannon remains adamant that Trump can and will run again, successfully.
Steve Bannon insists that Donald Trump will be president again for a third term in 2028—and that America needs him to.
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 23, 2025
Mr Bannon, one of the chief architects of the MAGA movement, spoke to Zanny Minton Beddoes, our editor-in-chief, and Ed Carr, our deputy editor, in Washington,… pic.twitter.com/m0c8RG56Kd
If the current news cycle is the guide, such ideas seem extremely fanciful. His approval ratings have fallen sharply in recent weeks.
His Republican Party just suffered worse than expected electoral losses amid economic anxieties, and the prospects moving forward are no better.
The details of Trump's former friendship with Jeffrey Epstein are dominating media coverage and his attempts to stop the House of Representatives voting to release the Epstein files resulted in a humiliating U-turn.
🚨 #BREAKINGNEWS Republican Representative Marjorie Tayor Greene says a traitor is someone like Trump that serves foreign countries and himself. 🚨 pic.twitter.com/OuTL6FFdhd
— Ford News (@FordJohnathan5) November 18, 2025
Is MAGA Splitting?
Regardless of what Bannon says, not all MAGA supporters are in lockstep with the president. Trump is now at war with one of his previously most loyal supporters, Marjorie Taylor Greene.
It is premature to say his base is collapsing but the movement which has propelled Trump's political career is less united than ever before. Outside of that base, he has never had any strong support, and mostly vehement opposition.
So is the beginning of the end? Is Trump now just another 'lame duck' president, watching power slip away as the political cycle rolls on?
Health Problems Are Public Knowledge
Even before the last few tumultuous weeks, bookies reported significant action on Trump failing to survive a full second term.
Principally, that seemed due to rumours sweeping the internet about his health. The White House did acknowledge that he is suffering from chronic venous insufficiency, which explains the bruising on his hands and reported swelling in his legs.
Donald Trump Exit Date Odds:
Date | Odds | Betting Site |
|---|---|---|
2029 Or Later | 8/15 | |
2026 | 5/1 | |
2028 | 8/1 | |
2027 | 8/1 | |
2025 | 12/1 |
Given that Trump is 79, it is hardly a big surprise that he has some health complications.
Readers may recall the constant speculation surrounding Joe Biden's health throughout his four-year presidency and, again, plenty of money was gambled on betting sites for an early exit.
He was diagnosed with prostate cancer soon after. One can therefore understand bettors thinking Trump's health may be worse than publicly acknowledged.
However, Biden still managed to serve a full term and in Trump's case, one would assume the situation would have to be really bad to quit.
Never Write Off Teflon Trump
On that basis, 5/1 about 2026 makes no appeal and feels like yet another example of Trump being underestimated. On multiple occasions, his political career seemed on the brink.
The weekend after the Access Hollywood tapes scandal broke during the 2016 election campaign saw frenzied betting on alternative Republicans, amid talk that Trump would withdraw.
After winning that election, he was odds-on to leave office within two years, as the Russia scandal took down several allies. Later, he was impeached twice, yet survived the Senate votes to remove him.
At 8/1, 2027 is a better option, likely to shorten considerably based on the 2026 odds trajectory.
The Democrats are 2/5 with Betfred to regain the House and, if so, will immediately launch a spate of investigations.
A third impeachment, available to back at 13/10 with Ladbrokes, would be highly likely.
Whilst it would again require a highly unlikely two-thirds majority of Senators to remove Trump from office, the backdrop would be worse for him this time.
The Epstein files issue demonstrated that, after years of servility, Republicans in Congress are willing to stand up to Trump.
Those backbones are bound to stiffen, especially if Trump has become even less popular or the MAGA base has frayed.
The year 2028 is also an 8/1 chance. Aside from health/impeachment, the logic here would be that he might want to help JD Vance by handing over power early.
If before the Republican primary ends, though, this would alienate Vance's rivals and potentially split the administration.
It is hard to get away from the obvious, 8/15 favourite with Star Sports. LiveScore's 1/3 that Trump exits in 2029 or later (which keeps the third term option onside), feels closer to the mark.
The only president in the modern era to fail to complete a full term was Richard Nixon. If faced with the same charges in the 21st century, Nixon would doubtless dismiss Watergate as 'fake news', a 'witch-hunt' and carry on regardless.
However if you think Epstein, impeachment or health genuinely present a threat, 8/1 with LiveScore about 2027 makes the most trading sense.
How long do you think Trump will last as US president? Let us know your thoughts below!
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