How Long Will Donald Trump Last As US President?

Betting sites have shortened their odds on Donald Trump completing his second term, as the US president publicly seeks to end the war in Ukraine by “doing a deal” with Russia.

Trump has enjoyed an uptick in approval ratings over the past two weeks as attention swings away from the Jeremy Epstein saga to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Having met Vladimir Putin - followed by a host of Western leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy - Trump is now seeking to broker a deal to end the war.

He may or may not succeed but his public efforts to tackle the crisis have been welcomed across the political spectrum.

There are still many issues hanging over Trump, including the fact he carries a -15% approval rating. 

But grappling with world affairs - rather than getting bogged down with controversial domestic policies - boosts his reputation.

And this, betting apps believe, is a catalyst for shortening his odds of remaining president until 2029.

Donald Trump Odds

Virgin Bet is the first bookmaker to shift their odds on Trump completing his second term to 1/3 – a price that carries a 75% probability. 

That focus is on when Trump will leave office, with those odds being an exit in 2029 during inauguration day.

Trump is now as wide as 8/1 to leave office this year, in 2027 or in 2028 while the same bookie has cut its odds of a 2026 exit to 13/2.

The president’s exit odds have been widening in recent weeks due to an acceptance among Democrats that they’ll struggle to impeach him during his second term.

Republicans command the House and Senate. 

Even if Democrats flip the House in 2026 and somehow grab power in the Senate during the midterms, they probably would not have the numbers to successfully impeach the president.

A Supreme Court ruling made last year with regards to presidential powers means a sitting president is practically impeachable unless they commit a serious crime.

Trump may be controversial among some circles, but his administration is not doing anything illegal that would justify impeachment.

Will Trump Complete His Second Term?

The odds of Trump completing four years in the Oval Office are likely to shrink over the coming months, especially if he can help find an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine. 

Stop that conflict and Trump will have strong allies across the West, who have already shouldered his tariffs.

Western leaders have learned not to criticise the US president and that gives him a political buffer that can be used back home to aid his domestic policies.

Trump is not going to be ousted through politics but, at 79, there’s always a chance he has to step down on health grounds.

The businessman has a relatively good bill of health but a recent diagnosis of a vein condition shows that age is catching up to him. 

We saw how Joe Biden endured mental decline during his four years as US president and bookmakers have to factor Trump’s age into their odds.

Political betting sites have odds of 7/4 (36.4%) that Trump won’t complete his presidency. 

Those odds suggest a one-in-three chance, which is perhaps overly pessimistic.

However, they reflect the fact that 63% of bets on Trump’s longevity side with an early exit, and bookies have to factor that into their odds.

Trump may have a negative poll rating, but it won’t ruin his presidency. 

Nor will political machinations in the Capitol change things now that US presidents all but have immunity from prosecution.

Health, or a decision to step down before his term is up, is the only means Trump leaves the Oval Office early. 

And right now, he looks determined to complete the job.