Formula 1 Odds: Rookies In Danger Of Being Sacked
The world of Formula 1 is a competitive, ruthless beast that takes no prisoners.
Rookies that take to the track are expected to be competitive, quick and consistent from the off, and some drivers find this easier than others.
The current season includes six full-time rookies, and although it is still in its infancy, some of the young drivers are already facing the sack.
Here, we look at which rookies are in danger of the chop according to betting sites.
Doohan Could Be First To Go
Alpine rookie Jack Doohan is a 4/5 favourite with betting apps and is seemingly almost out the door already.
After a couple of disappointing results in Australia and China, the Australian driver has been tipped to be replaced by highly rated Argentine driver Franco Colapinto, who is currently the reserve driver at Alpine.
Many people in the paddock expect Doohan to be replaced by Colapinto four or five races into the season if performances don’t improve.
This seems very harsh on Doohan, but Alpine's top brass see Colapinto as a better long-term prospect.
Lawson's Poor Performances A Worry
Driving for RB Racing is hard enough, but if you are a driver with very little Formula 1 racing experience and increased expectations to help the team win the Championship, then it will always be a struggle.
RB Racing are not shy about replacing a driver mid-way through a season, something New Zealander Liam Lawson may be facing.
For example, in 2019, Pierre Gasly was replaced by Alex Albon, but neither driver could match Max Verstappen.
Disappointing results in Australia and China have put Lawson’s seat under heavy scrutiny, even more so that Racing Bulls' (sister team) lead driver Yuki Tsunoda believes he should have the opportunity with the senior team.
F1 First Rookie To Be Sacked Odds
Driver | F1 Team | Odds | Probability |
Jack Doohan | Alpine | 4/5 | 55.6% |
Liam Lawson | RB Racing | 6/5 | 45.5% |
Isack Hadjar | Racing Bulls | 3/1 | 25% |
Gabriel Bortoleto | Sauber | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Oliver Bearman | Haas | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 15/1 | 6.2% |
Australia Crash Could Harm Hadjar
Jumping from Formula 2 to Formula 1 can be daunting and overwhelming.
Adapting to a new car, team and demands can be tricky, and Racing Bulls’ latest driver, Isack Hadjar (3/1), is one of those drivers who might require time to get up to speed.
But as I mentioned, Formula 1 is a place where drivers don’t get time.
Hadjar showed glimpses of speed in Australia, narrowly missing out on Q3 in qualifying, but then threw away all that good work by crashing on the formation lap.
His performance in China was more promising, but the strategy in the race cost him an almost guaranteed top-10 finish.
Hadjar has come under pressure from RB Racing’s Helmut Marko after he called the driver's emotional antics after the Australian crash ‘embarrassing’. This could already be a sign that they don’t see a long-term future with the French-Algerian.
Other Rookies In Danger Of The Chop
Sauber driver Gabriel Bortoleto (5/1) and Haas' Oliver Bearman (7/1) have come into Formula 1 with much hype and expectation.
Bearman grabbed the headlines last year after jumping in a Ferrari to replace Carlos Sainz.
Despite having very little preparation, he drove a very controlled race in Saudi Arabia to finish P7 ahead of Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton.
The British driver is seen as the future by Haas and could potentially join Ferrari as a full-time race driver.
Bortoleto earned his place on the grid, having won the F3 and F2 titles back to back.
However, Red Bull chief Helmut Marko described the Brazilian as a ‘B grade' driver.
Bortoleto has made a solid start to life in Formula 1, and it would be surprising to see him get replaced mid-season.
Mercedes rookie Kimi Antonelli is the outsider with F1 betting sites at 15/1, and he has proved he should be racing at a top team.
Many questions were raised after his disappointing qualifying in Australia. But his battle back in changeable conditions to finish fourth shows his mentality and skill in dealing with the pressure.
The result in China was slightly hit-and-miss, but he is still finding his feet with Mercedes.
Mercedes and Antonelli have a strong relationship, and the Silver Arrows have invested time and money to support and mentor him into challenging for the World Championship.
This would mean a change in driver would be a huge shock.
* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.
