Next Conservative Leader Betting Odds: 5 Factors To Consider And 3 Long Shots

When last analysing betting on who might succeed Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader, we asked whether anybody could stop Robert Jenrick. 

The answer, it turns out, was yes, himself. Jenrick’s sacking and defection to Reform have thrown this market wide open. 

Consequently, every candidate bar two can be backed at 20/1 or higher on betting sites. In order to navigate this tricky puzzle, we must first answer the following questions:

Is Badenoch's Position Improving?

According to the betting, the answer is yes. During 2025, she was heavily odds-on to leave her post before 2027. That is now a general 2/1 chance, while her odds of surviving until 2029 or later are down to the same 2/1 with Ladbrokes and Betfred. 

Were she to go relatively soon, only a few candidates would have a realistic chance. 

Current 4/1 favourite James Cleverly would be the obvious replacement. The Braintree MP was odds-on for the job last time it came up, only to fall foul of a tactical voting mishap. 

If the Tories are not making headway approaching the next General Election, there must be a high chance they will turn to this heavyweight and fluent media performer.

Next Conservative Leader Odds:

(Odds correct at the time of publishing: 5.30pm - 20/1/2026)

Is The Successor Currently On The Tory Benches?

However, if Badenoch fights the next General Election as leader, the list of possibilities becomes almost endless. 

It could be somebody who has yet to be elected or even listed in the betting. It could be a former leader, such as Boris Johnson (20/1 with Ladbrokes) or Lord David Cameron (100/1 with Coral)

Or it could be somebody currently sitting on the Reform benches. Nigel Farage is 25/1 with one of the betting apps, whilst Jenrick is the same price with Star Sports. 

Ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe, now an Independent, is 20/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral.

* Our free to play Cosmo Spins game has blasted off and the Prize Wheel prizes include 5k in Cash! Click the banner below to play. Terms and conditions and location restrictions apply.

Where Does A Reform Pact/Takeover Stand?

Such ideas of Reform-Conservative defections are, of course, in stark contrast to the current trend. 

Romford MP Andrew Rosindell swiftly followed Jenrick, and more defections are expected in the run-up to May’s elections. 

It seems the plan has been to destabilise Badenoch’s leadership with a steady stream, keeping the issue prominent in the news cycle.

What’s the endgame? Electorally, a formal or informal pact would make perfect sense. The Tories will struggle to keep the seats they have, or regain those lost to the Lib Dems, if Reform are on the ballot. 

Likewise, Reform’s targeting of Labour-held seats will become a lot easier if the Tories withdraw.

Alternatively, consider Farage’s career as a long-term hostile takeover of the Conservatives. 

He has previously acknowledged an ambition to become Tory leader. By welcoming so many of their number, he risks brand damage in the process. 

Reform looks less like a new, fresh, independent party than a different version of the Tories. 

The parallels with Donald Trump’s takeover of the Republicans are obvious. An eventual merger under the Conservative banner cannot be ruled out entirely.

Is Foreign Policy Now The Key Dynamic?

British politics and the party system are, however, fundamentally different. Trump was able to purge critics and take full control. But Farage’s opponents on the right have their own electoral mandates and aren’t going anywhere. 

The core division appears to be foreign policy. Badenoch’s instant criticism of Trump over his threats to Greenland was in stark contrast to anything we’ve heard from Farage over the years. 

The Tories are consistent critics of Putin and defenders of Ukraine. Farage is frequently accused of being a Putin ally, and his former leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, was recently sentenced to 10 years for pushing Russian propaganda.

With the world on fire and given the strong military ties to the Conservative Party, don’t expect these divisions to heal any time soon.

Vote Now! Who Will Be The Next Conservative Leader?

Who Are The Best Value Bets?

Naturally, we need to focus on those least likely to defect. If Cleverly wants the job and it does indeed become available before the next election, he will take the world of stopping. 

He doesn’t seem an obvious defector but in light of recent events, taking short odds doesn’t appeal as a strategy. 

That applies even more so regarding 6/1 second favourite Katie Lam. She was very much aligned with Jenrick’s hard-right vision and could well be on Farage’s target list. 

Instead, focus on the following three women. All, critically, are in constituencies which Reform are highly unlikely to gain. Having survived the catastrophic 2024 election, they should all be safe. Their odds should shorten, regardless of whether they eventually run.

Claire Coutinho

Claire Coutinho makes a solid long-term appeal at 20/1 with BetMGM. 

Aged just 40, she is already a prominent member of the shadow cabinet, having served under Rishi Sunak. 

Her East Surrey constituency is more likely to be threatened by the Lib Dems than Reform.

Laura Trott

Similarly, there would be no sense in Sevenoaks MP Laura Trott (33/1 with Bet365) switching to Reform if she plans to be re-elected. 

At 41, she already has a prominent role as shadow education secretary.

Alicia Kearns

Finally, 38-year-old Alicia Kearns (100/1 with William Hill) is definitely a rising star. 

She was the first woman and youngest MP to be elected as chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee. 

Her Rutland and Stamford constituency is the fifth safest Tory seat and, as an avowed one-nation conservative and harsh critic of Russia and China, she definitely isn’t going to defect. 

In these troubled times, her profile is likely to grow.

Who do you think will be the next leader of the Conservative Party? Let us know in the comments box below or vote in our poll above!