Next Conservative Leader Betting Odds: Can Anyone Stop Robert Jenrick?
The Conservative Party conference was little short of a disaster, derided for its irrelevance in the media, with the narrative that they are locked in an existential crisis is becoming harder to dismiss.
Several political betting sites are offering odds on the year of Kemi Badenoch’s departure, with odds of 4/5 for 2026, while Robert Jenrick is the 6/4 favourite to replace her. Both bets appeal.
Even lifelong opponents on the left lamented the party's demise, in fear that an alternative further to the right will displace them.
Perhaps that is an over-reaction, just one year after their worst ever defeat but, without question, the current incarnation led by Badenoch, is in deep trouble.
Challenging her leadership will require a third of Tory MPs requesting a confidence vote, so this is unlikely to happen imminently.
However, a widely projected thrashing in next May’s elections in England, Scotland and Wales is likely to prove a tipping point.
Jenrick’s Leadership Bid Is Long Underway
Jenrick's ambition is the worst-kept secret in politics, as he has dreamed of being prime minister since university and, according to colleagues, his politics have followed whatever way the wind is blowing.
Hence his transformation from a moderate ally to David Cameron during the coalition years to the anti-refugee firebrand who quit the Rishi Sunak government over its failure to implement the Rwanda scheme.
Those moves during the dying days of the last government were widely seen as positioning for the leadership, for which he tried and failed, losing to Badenoch.
That naked ambition may have damaged him during the contest, but it hasn't deterred the Newark MP.
More than anyone from a Tory party, which has become largely ignored, Jenrick has been getting out there, pushing ever more hard-line messages on immigration, race, crime in Labour-led cities and ‘Anglo-futurism’.
At the conference, he claimed to not see a white face on a visit to Handsworth, Birmingham and attacked 'activist judges' in a direct echo of Donald Trump's Republican Party.
He's running, and that's an ultra-safe bet which begs two questions. Is this the direction the Conservative Party wants, and is there an alternative challenger capable of beating him?
Next Conservative Leader Odds:
Candidate | Odds | Betting Site |
Robert Jenrick | 6/4 | |
James Cleverly | 6/1 | |
Boris Johnson | 14/1 | |
Katie Lam | 16/1 | |
Nigel Farage | 20/1 | |
Rupert Lowe | 20/1 | |
Claire Coutinho | 25/1 | |
Jeremy Hunt | 25/1 | |
Mike Wood | 25/1 | |
Chris Philp | 28/1 |
A Further Shift To The Right Seems Inevitable
Regarding the former, whilst there will be resistance from some relatively moderate types, it is hard to envisage the party taking any other path.
Across the Western world, parties of the right are moving the same way or being usurped by further right alternatives.
To win again, the Tories need Reform to collapse or to become a partner via whatever means necessary.
The British Conservative Party has faced similar challenges throughout history and repeatedly changed its clothes to adapt to changing times.
It is the most successful electoral machine in European history and pundits predicting their extinction should remember that.
Indeed, Jenrick or whoever replaces Badenoch, could very well end up as prime minister either at the next election or sometime after.
How? Because Reform is less a political party than a private company owned by Nigel Farage. Were an electoral pact agreed before the next election, it could soon become a merger.
That is another question and betting market for another day, but a conversation all forward-thinking Conservative MPs will have had.
A YouGov poll of Tory members found 64% want a pact with Reform and 46% want a full merger.
Thus, regardless of whatever some moderate MPs think, this is likely to be the key dynamic of the leadership contest.
Danny Kruger, head of the influential National Conservatives faction within the party, has already defected.
So, has Boris Johnson’s number one cheerleader Nadine Dorries and influential ‘thinker’ Tim Montgomerie, who are bound to line up behind Jenrick and reinforce his front-runner status when the time comes.
James Cleverly Is The Strongest Would-Be Challenger
So, who might challenge him? The most obvious is former home and foreign secretary James Cleverly. He is regarded as the party’s best communicator.
Were it not for a tactical farce from supporters during the last leadership contest, he probably would have won and he’s a 6/1 chance with Ladbrokes.
Were Cleverly to throw his hat in, take him very seriously. However, even the leadership bid last time was somewhat reluctant, having initially briefed that this wasn’t the time.
Rebranding as a far-right populist would reek of opportunism and could wreck his ‘credible’ brand.
Vote Now! Who Will Be The Next Conservative Leader?
Otherwise, Tom Tugendhat might run again from the moderate wing, to little avail.
A younger, fresher face such as Katie Lam (16/1) or Claire Coutinho (25/1) might run in order to boost their profile and end up making an impact.
David Cameron did something similar in 2005 and ended up dominating the contest because he was deemed clearly the most electable.
Forget Boris
There will doubtless be more hype around a Boris Johnson comeback - currently best-priced at 14/1 with Ladbrokes.
Don’t buy into that. His credibility is shot, and he would need to find a winnable seat in a by-election first. In the current climate, it would be hard to identify such a seat.
Therefore, backing Jenrick at 6/4 with William Hill seems a no-brainer. He will be in the top-two and will almost certainly trade at clear odds-on.
By that stage, he’ll either be regarded as near-certain or, if not, the bet can be covered by backing his opponent when the field is whittled down to two.
Who do you think will be the next leader of the Conservative Party? Let us know in the comments box below!
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