Odds On Next UK General Election Date Flip To November Showdown
Article By
Last Updated: 
Betting sites have flipped their odds on the date of the next UK election and now believe the country is on course to coincide with America’s presidential election in November.
Prime minister Rishi Sunak says his “working assumption” is for an autumn vote as his Conservative party scrambles for support five years on from Boris Johnson’s emphatic victory.
Bookmakers had assumed that an October date was already pencilled in Mr Sunak’s diary in order to set the UK in order before the US holds its vote on November 5.
However, in recent days a number of betting apps have shifted their prices on a November poll – so much so that it is now the most likely month of the UK election.
The shift indicates a growing expectation that Mr Sunak will hold out as long as possible before closing Parliament for the campaign.
And bettors are already taking note by piling in on a November date.
Next General Election Date Odds
According to politics betting sites, November is the most likely month of the next election. The odds of 11/10 at Betfred indicate a 14% greater possibility than October.
The UK’s last general election came in December 2019 when Mr Johnson timed his “Get Brexit Done” campaign to coincide with the looming deadline to leave the EU. Mr Johnson secured an 80-seat majority.
There is little chance of Mr Sunak achieving such a victory this year but another December poll is possible at 9/1.
After that, bettors appear to be banking on a July 2024 vote. That month currently carries 22% of all wagers in the market despite sitting at 12/1.
There’s a possibility Mr Sunak could lose the leadership of his party if they suffer huge losses in the May local elections. Evidently enough punters reckon there’s a possibility Mr Sunak’s government could collapse, triggering a snap election.
As for the other months this year, none look likely. June (12/1) would require Parliament to close almost as soon as the local election results come in. August (66/1) and September (33/1) would ruin the summer holidays and not go down well with the electorate.
October (2/1) was once the frontrunner as it would have fallen bang in the middle of party conference season, where Labour earn most of their money throughout the year. However, it looks as though November will win out.
Why Would Sunak Pick A November Election?
Gunning for a November poll is not without risks but Mr Sunak appears willing to give it a stab. The big reason for choosing November is he can outline his party manifesto at the Tory conference in October and rally his troops. The Conservatives have fought amongst themselves for much of this parliament but will fall into line for the campaign.
Then there is the extra time a November poll brings. His chancellor Jeremy Hunt has all summer to post the economy and will deliver his autumn statement on the eve of campaigning, which again could give the Tories a poll boost.
Finally, the spectre of America looms over British politics. Joe Biden and Donald Trump will dominate the media landscape in October ahead of their showdown a month later. Mr Sunak is already losing populist support from his party to Reform UK and a Trump victory could embolden the right.
A Biden win, though, may dampen enthusiasm for Reform and convince traditional Conservatives to get out and vote, in order to prevent a Democrat/Labour alliance across the Atlantic.
Of course, this all depends on Mr Sunak getting to the autumn in one piece. His job is already on the line as rebels prepare to hand in their letters of no confidence. They only need a set of horrendous local election results to prove the catalyst for a leadership contest.
Kemi Badenoch, Penny Mordaunt and Suella Braverman all have their eyes on the top job. Could the Tories really depose another leader this summer and install a new prime minister on the eve of an election?
Quite possibly, yes, which is why Mr Sunak is not guaranteed to lead his party into an impending electoral defeat to Labour.
That possibility also adds fuel to the expectation of a November poll. Were the Tories to ditch Mr Sunak now, they would outright refuse an election until they have a new cabinet in order.
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.
Updated by
Last Updated:
