Formula 1 Season Betting Strategy & Tips to Consider

With smaller engines and the introduction of hybrid electric power, complete with energy recovery systems, the new regulations introduced at the start of the 2014 Formula 1 season brought to an end the dominance enjoyed by the Red Bull team. It also signaled Mercedes’ time at the top, and since then, the team has won every Drivers Championship and every Constructor’s Championship, not to mention the vast majority of races.

Formula 1 betting sites offer more opportunities than ever. Such is Mercedes's dominance we are seeing an ever-increasing number of "without the favorite" markets. In fact, with Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull constantly better than their rivals, we are also seeing markets simply featuring the other seven teams.

Drivers and Constructors' Championship

At the start of the 2019 season, following some excellent pre-season testing, both the Driver's and Constructor’s Championship looked to be a match between Ferrari and Mercedes teams. But the German outfit raced clear of their rivals once again, meaning these markets featured massive odds-on shots before the season was a third of the way through its 21-race calendar.

However, teams do have two drivers, and the season-long Drivers Championship can be played each way. That means six drivers are battling over a top-three spot at the very least, so this market is never dead and buried. Those of a certain vintage will recall Michael Schumacher breaking his leg at the 1999 British Grand Prix. At the time, he was leading the Driver’s Championship and was long odds-on in the betting to claim that title. In this sport, things aren't done and dusted until the proverbial fat lady sings.

Early Betting

On a race-by-race basis, trawling through the betting markets and comparing them to the stats is a great way to get some betting value and nab a big-priced winner with top sportsbooks. That’s best done prior to the opening practice sessions, which start on a Friday.

Eagle-eyed bettors who do their homework will quickly spot trends that bookmakers don’t. For example, Mexican Sergio Perez set the fastest lap at Monaco twice, and he received +10000 for the accolade both times. Likewise, his last two podium finishes both came at the same circuit, Baku, when he was over +20000 in the race win market.

The horses-for-courses theory works well in this sport, and odds compilers often miss these form pointers and definitely read way too much into recent form. Whilst a team or driver may have enjoyed an excellent run of results, a close inspection often shows they have all come at a similar type of circuit. Then, switched to a venue with different demands on the machinery, that fine run can abruptly end.

Value of Practice

Most people’s instincts lead them straight to the "race winner" market, and they see the form worth of the opening practice session as gospel. Big mistake! Only five times in the 21-race 2018 season did the driver who set the fastest time in the opening practice session go on to win the race. During the same year, the driver who went fastest in the third and final practice session did prevail—it’s a much more reliable guide to who will win the race.

However, a car from a team outside the "big three" often shows its pace from the very first practice session, so if you are looking for candidates for a top-six finish or even a top-ten, take note of all practice lap times.

Points Finish

A top-ten finish is also known as a "points finish," as drivers only earn world championship points by finishing within the top ten. This is becoming an increasingly popular market as racing among mid-pack teams is fiercely competitive, and big-priced winners can be identified regularly.

Fastest Lap

In 2019, the rules for "fastest lap" were changed. This afforded an additional world championship point to the winner, provided that the driver finished the race in the top ten. Unfortunately, that has somewhat killed off what was a genuine chance of finding +5000 winners, as the fastest lap accolade, like the race victory, is now exclusively battled out among the "big three" teams.

Driver Match Ups

Formula 1 betting still offers the opportunity of tasty winnings for small stakes courtesy of driver match bets. Traditionally, these match bets are of the teammate-on-teammate variety, but as some sportsbooks accept doubles, trebles, and even parlays, big-priced touches can still be landed.