Belgian GP Betting Tips And Analysis: Brace For Brits Comeback At Spa
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F1 Betting Tips:
- Lewis Hamilton to win at 4/1 with Ladbrokes
- George Russell to have a podium finish at 11/8 with Betfair
Mercedes rallied together to come home second and third last month in the Hungarian GP and the seven-time World Drivers’ Championship winner Lewis Hamilton was a staggering 12/1 price on betting sites to win before the race.
It also became the fourth consecutive Grand Prix that Hamilton finished in the top three, having been amongst the points in Spain and Azerbaijan.
What’s clear is that there’s consistent improvement from Mercedes and after the mid-season break through August there could well be more to come from the team and George Russell.
But crucially, Red Bull and Max Verstappen are also consistent in the face of it.
With wins in the French and Hungarian GPs, the Dutchman is now sitting at the top of the Drivers’ Championship table with 258 points, with eight wins to his name.
The closest is still Charles Leclerc, but only just, with 178 points and just three wins and five podiums.
Red Bull are dominant in the standings too, if there was hope for Ferrari to gain points in the standings, Sergio Perez who has 173 points, is hot on the tail of Leclerc as the Mexican driver is often pushing the top points.
Verstappen remains heavy odds-on favourite ahead of Leclerc, who is now out to 8/1 to win the 2022 title with the best F1 betting sites.
Hamilton, despite being a huge 40/1 price was almost double that at the start of July with bookmakers.
The Belgian GP hasn’t seen much dominance from one particular team or driver in recent years.
Mercedes have won in 2017 and 2020, sandwiching Ferrari’s double in 2018 and 2019 before Red Bull’s first victory here in seven years in 2021.
Hamilton should make another bold bid this weekend to finish on the podium for a fifth straight time given his record here and four separate Belgian GP victories.
In fact, no driver has managed to win in successive years at this track since Kimi Raikkonen in 2004 and 2005, before the Finnish driver also won in 2007.
Mercedes' marked improvements to their car have seen them become second favourites to win this weekend, as Hamilton is now 4/1 with Ladbrokes to see the chequered flag first.
Ferrari’s Leclerc is out to 15/2 with bet365 and signals a huge moment in Scuderia’s season - this realistically is their last chance to really mount a challenge on a title.
These price changes are huge in the space of just two races and the complexion of the race could be mirrored with the odds. Verstappen could buck the trend and win for a second year in-a-row given Red Bull’s ability this season, but the value once again comes from the Brits.
A single bet on Hamilton to win this last year would have been nowhere near the price it is and there’s no reason Mercedes won’t get their first GP win of the season here.
Russell also provides value at 6/1 with Betfair as an each-way prospect, but more so when looking at a podium finish at 11/8.
Just nine races remain in the 2022 season and Verstappen’s lead translates to three GP victories, leaving little wiggle room for Ferrari to make a comeback.
Porpoising is the big buzzword of the year and especially after the short summer break as the FIA is enforcing regulations as of this weekend to eliminate the much talked about bouncing.
Ferrari’s car is the fastest but they haven’t been able to utilise it and face an uphill battle to claw any points back, but it may be helped very slightly with these enforcements.
Cutting out porpoising simply but will be done by raising the ride height of all cars and it is a change made in hopes of making the rest of the season even more competitive.
Any cars that are seen to be bouncing too much called “maximum vertical oscillation metric” will be prone to repercussions. These changes won’t be benefitting Ferrari or Red Bull and that is the pivotal thing heading into the final few races of the year.
The big question is will it help Mercedes push for a win? If those intriguing changes aren’t enough to excite you ahead of the weekend, there’s also the changes to the Belgian track to consider.
The Spa-Francorchamps has undergone some tweaking since last year’s Grand Prix.
Issues at the top of the hill has been an occurrence many times over the years and the Eau Rouge has seen the most of the changes by being reprofiled.
The changes themselves have also gone over well with the drivers and that means competitive, challenging and drama will only be a good thing for those betting on Belgian GP.
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