Rhys Williams' Racing Tips: 4 Selections For Thursday
Horse racing expert Rhys Williams is sharing his best selections for today's racing.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
Rhys' tips have returned 242.62 points from 152 points staked, meaning his profit and loss record stands at +90.62pts overall - thanks to a sensational recent spell that includes a 33/1 and a trio of 28/1 winning selections last week.
Here are Rhys' tips for today - plus his ante-post Lockinge Stakes selection, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
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17:15 York: Knightsail - 0.5pts Each-Way @ 14/1
Knightsail makes his handicap debut in the closing race at York, and I think he has the potential to improve on what he’s shown so far and run better than his price suggests.
He looked quite green in both runs as a two-year-old, but stayed on well in the closing stages of his second start at Goodwood to finish third - shaping as though he would likely want this sort of trip as a three-year-old.
On his seasonal debut at Nottingham, the slow pace and ground weren’t ideal for him and he lacked the necessary pace for that test - and he also managed to get his tongue over the bit which wouldn’t have helped his cause.
I think the step up to 1m 4f on ground that’s on the soft side, will be more suitable for Knightsail - and he has the potential to take a step forward on what he’s shown so far as a result.
Any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Selection 1: 17:15 York: Knightsail - 0.5pts Each-Way
18:10 Fontwell: Khalk'eau Spigao - 0.5pt Win @ 16/1
Khalk’eau Spigao couldn’t run up to market expectations on his debut at this track, but I think the market is potentially underestimating his chance now he’s in handicap company.
He was very strong in the market on debut, but looked clueless for much of the race and ended up only being able to make late ground to finish fourth.
He hasn’t built on that on either start since, with the middle of his three runs being particularly poor.
However, I think step up in trip will at least help him to some extent - and the promise of the debut run suggests he could improve from this lowly mark at some point.
It may be that point will come further down the line when Khalk’eau Spigao is stepped up in trip again and possibly over fences, but I think he’s a little overpriced.
Any 12/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 18:10 Fontwell: Khalk'eau Spigao - 0.5pt Win
19:20 Clonmel: Kaleo Ametsa - 1pt Win @ 14/1
This looks a fairly moderate mares maiden hurdle and a couple of horses appeal at double-figure prices - considering the ability they’ve shown.
The first of those is Kaleo Ametsa, who was well beaten when last seen - but showed more promise than the margin beaten suggests.
That was a tougher field than the one she faces today, with the first two home having since contested Grade 1 novice hurdles - and Kaleo Ametsa was still in close contention jumping two out before fading quickly.
She had previously shown promise on her hurdling debut at Cork, when she made headway on the wide outside to be close up turning into the home straight - before she dived at three out and fell.
I think the drop back in trip will help her chance, and this is easier company than she faced in both of those starts over hurdles.
It may be that Kaleo Ametsa will need the run a little after a 136-day break - or that today will be more about her education and getting her to try to finish off the race stronger.
That was the case last time, but she has the ability to be competitive in a race of this level and any double figures appeals.
Rhys' Selection 3: 19:20 Clonmel: Kaleo Ametsa - 1pt Win
19:20 Clonmel: Muted Melody - 1pt Win @ 33/1
The other mare of interest at a big price in the same race is Muted Melody, who makes her hurdling debut having shown ability in bumpers.
She gradually improved throughout her four runs in bumpers last year, which ended with a fourth in listed company at Gowran on ground that may have been a bit softer than ideal for her.
She returned at the Punchestown Festival and shaped with some promise, making ground from last to be at the back of the chasing pack approaching the home straight before fading late on.
Muted Melody faces weaker company for this hurdling debut, and I’m hoping they won’t repeat the tactics of that level of patience as that is unlikely to be helpful for her chance.
There is a concern that this will be more about her education and she hasn’t always been the easiest, but if they can channel her talent in the right direction, I think she could run better than her price suggests.
Any 14/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 4: 19:20 Clonmel: Muted Melody - 1pt Win
Lockinge Stakes
(Newbury, Saturday 14:35):
Sahlan - 1pt Each-Way @ 14/1
Sahlan finished behind Notable Speech and The Lion In Winter when last seen at the Breeders Cup, but I think he has the potential to reverse that form in the Lockinge on Saturday.
He got a bit upset in the stalls at Del Mar and didn’t look at all suited by the track, being shuffled back around the final turn before running on to finish fifth while carrying his tail awkwardly.
Prior to that, he put up an excellent performance when winning the Moulin at Longchamp, holding off the late challenge of Rosallion and finishing ahead of The Lion In Winter.
Given his gradual improvement last season, I’m hopeful that there will be more to come from Sahlan, and I think this straight mile will be a far more suitable test for him than Del Mar.
There is the slight concern that he doesn’t have the benefit of a recent run that others do, but I think the market is overlooking his chance and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Lockinge Stakes Ante-Post: Newbury (Saturday 14:35): Sahlan - 1pt Each-Way
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