Angela Rayner Odds Tumble In Race To Be Next Labour Leader
The chances of Angela Rayner succeeding Sir Keir Starmer as the next Labour leader have shortened after a chaotic week for the opposition party.
Ms Rayner was sacked from her position as the party’s campaign coordinator last weekend following Labour’s disastrous local elections results. The party also lost the constituency of Hartlepool to the Conservatives in a stinging by-election defeat.
Starmer sacked Rayner over the weekend but then promoted her to Labour’s spokesperson for the future of work and handed her the job of shadowing Michael Gove at the Cabinet Office.
The speed with which Starmer flipped on his plan to demote Rayner came after the latter was locked in talks with the Labour leadership’s team over the weekend.
And it has seen Rayner’s odds on being the candidate who eventually replaces Starmer significantly narrow over the past seven days.
Next Labour Leader Odds
According to bookmakers Paddy Power, Rayner’s price has come in from 8/1 to 5/1 to be the next Labour leader. That puts her behind only Andy Burnham – the mayor of Greater Manchester – in the running.
Burnham has previously stood for the Labour leadership and has gained popularity across northern constituencies over the past few years.
Meanwhile, Sadiq Khan’s price has fallen dramatically to 16/1 with some bookmakers after he won a second term as London mayor this month.
Khan could well follow his predecessor Boris Johnson in re-entering national politics once his time in the capital is up, but for now doesn’t appear likely to succeed Starmer unless the current leader remains in his post until the next general election.
How Long Has Starmer Got Left?
Starmer’s disproval rating has skyrocketed in recent weeks and is being attacked on all sides of the political spectrum. Former Labour-supporting Brexit voters are now migrating to the Tories, while left-wing infighting continues among the opposition.
Starmer’s latest odds of 8/15 to lose his leadership before the end of 2023 suggests he has just a 44.8% chance of remaining in control of the party.
As for Labour’s chances at the next general election, Rayner insisted the party needs “a fundamental rethink” on their strategy.
“I say we pull together, like any family we have our fallouts and we do that in private,” she told BBC. “If we fight each other, then people don't think we're on their side and I want people to know that we are on their side – and that's what we are focused on.”
It could be a long road for the opposition. Labour are now 4/1 to win a majority at the next general election, with the Tories – who now have an 81-seat majority – comfortably in at 6/4.
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