How Long Will Rishi Sunak Last As UK Prime Minister?
UK bookmakers have widened their odds on Rishi Sunak winning the next UK general election following disappointing economic growth figures published last week, which have kiboshed the prime minister’s momentum in the polls.
Sunak had begun the week in a positive light after the International Monetary Fund claimed the UK’s economic growth forecasts were on track to improve.
But a couple of days later it emerged the country’s inflation rate has barely dropped, and food prices are still skyrocketing.
The Bank of England has subsequently raised the base rate of interest to 4.5%, affecting homeowners and businesses across the country.
And it has forced bookies to row back any expectation they had that Sunak was turning the tide back in the favour of the Conservatives heading into next year’s election.
Indeed, one politics betting site has even nudged their odds on Sunak being ousted in 2024 to a new record-high price.
Rishi Sunak Odds
Political betting sites have reacted to the goings on in Westminster. They’ve upped their odds on Sunak being prime minister after the next election from 3/1 to 5/2.
It indicates a 28.6% likelihood that the billionaire ex-banker will still be in No 10 by 2025.
Meanwhile, another market now projects Sunak having a 61% chance of being out of office in 2024.
The only reason that price isn’t shorter is because there’s a slim possibility the next UK election will be held in January 2025, rather than next summer as expected.
This is not good reading for Sunak. He replaced Liz Truss in the autumn expressly to fix the economy, and was given the benefit of the doubt through a difficult winter by the British public.
But now household energy costs are down, the focus is on other savings. Food costs are spiralling to their highest in 45 years, mortgage rates are unaffordable for millions, and wages aren’t keeping up with inflation.
Worryingly for the Conservatives, one of the few areas of the economy that has helped boost growth is higher net migration.
The Tories want migration in the tens of thousands, but last year more than 600,000 people moved to the UK.
This increase of workers helped reduce the country’s economic pressures but can’t be enough on its own.
Can Sunak Save The Tories?
The UK’s economic outlook hints that a recession may be around the corner. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Brexit negotiations, and the rising cost and impact of climate change do not aid the PM’s ambitions to get the economy back on its feet.
And he’s running out of time. Voters vote on a huge spectrum of issues but primarily vote with their wallet when times are tough. Labour are more trusted now to run the economy, and have a 16-point poll lead.
Sunak has successfully cut this lead down from 30 last summer, but it’s still enough to project a narrow Labour majority at the next election.
What’s worse for Sunak is that according to betting apps, it’s highly unlikely his Tory party would be able to form a coalition government with any other party.
They’ve struck out alone since Brexit and wouldn’t get the support of the Lib Dems, Greens or SNP if it got to that stage.
Sunak needs some good news. A Conservative prime minister is rarely going to green light pumping money into the economy, but spending pledges are needed to keep apace with inflation and address glaring infrastructure issues.
More worrying still is the headline news that Boris Johnson’s pledge to build 40 new hospitals – a vote winner at the last election – won’t happen. Instead, refurbishments and wings of hospitals will be added to the ‘grand total’ and it won’t be complete until 2030.
If the Tories can’t boost the economy and can’t meet its NHS pledges then it has little left to fall back on bar culture wars.
The problem with this is you need to win these “wars” if you’re elected on them, and so far the Brexit project and Johnson’s populism has been a disaster.
TV networks like GB News may provide an outlet for discourse, but the government isn’t providing the results. And voters are beginning to realise this.
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