How Long Will Rishi Sunak Last As UK Prime Minister?
UK betting sites expect Rishi Sunak to win his Richmond and Northallerton seat at Thursday’s election but are certain he will not be prime minister on July 5.
In fact, there is a growing expectation that Mr Sunak will quit politics altogether once the dust has settled on what is likely to be a catastrophic defeat for the Conservative Party.
Mr Sunak has struggled to ignite support for his premiership since announcing the election in the pouring rain outside Downing Street.
A string of gaffes – from launching his campaign at the Titanic Museum, to leaving D-Day commemorations early – has seen Tory support dwindle from 25 points to around 21%.
Some polls even suggest Reform UK are ahead of the Conservatives, even though that’s unlikely to lead to a higher number of Reform seats in the next Parliament.
Bookmakers reckon Mr Sunak has been heading towards electoral defeat for months and their odds reflect what the polls are saying, namely that Labour are on for a crushing majority and the country will have a new prime minister this month.
And that leaves politics betting sites wondering what’s in store for Mr Sunak.
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Rishi Sunak Odds
According to Betfred, Labour are 1/66 to win a majority at this election. That would mean Sir Keir Starmer replacing Mr Sunak as prime minister and, in all likelihood, leading a large majority in Westminster.
Mr Sunak will almost certainly concede defeat and announce he is stepping down as Conservative Party leader. This will trigger a leadership contest among what might only be around 100 Tory MPs.
Mr Sunak's odds of remaining prime minister have jumped from 8/1, when he announced the election, to 33/1 with Unibet. That puts him on par with Nigel Farage, with a 2.9% probability of him keeping his job.
The Tories would need to secure a majority and get over 326 seats for this to happen. After all, no-one – perhaps not even Reform – would prop up Mr Sunak in a coalition government now.
The Conservatives are projected to win around 100 seats, so the possibility of a majority is dead. That’s why betting sites have priced Mr Sunak so high. He and his party seemingly have no chance of avoiding slipping into opposition.
What Will Sunak Do Next?
The question for many, then, is what happens to the prime minister once he has departed No 10?
Mr Sunak is a multi-millionaire former banker who is more comfortable among friends in California than working the room during international political summits.
The idea that he will return to this constituency and do the hard graft as a backbencher seems a little far-fetched.
In fact, he isn’t even guaranteed to win his seat. BoyleSports price a Tory victory in Richmond and Northallerton at 1/3. Those odds carry a 75% probability, but it opens the door for Labour (2/1) to steal the seat.
Assuming Mr Sunak does win his seat, the likelihood is that he will slip into the backbenches and then figure out what to do next. He won’t quit parliament straightaway but it’s possible that Richmond and Northallerton residents will be voting in a by-election this time next year.
Mr Sunak’s political trajectory has been steep, and his comedown just as severe. He only got elected in 2015 and in four years became Treasury chief secretary. Less than a year later he became Boris Johnson’s chancellor and held the keys to the country’s finances.
He succeeded Liz Truss as prime minister in the autumn of 2022 as the country endured the £60bn hit of the government’s disastrous mini-budget.
Since then, Mr Sunak has failed to improve the Conservative poll ratings and has seen support bleed away to both Labour and Reform. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are targeting Middle England seats, hoping to pick up a string of MPs.
The Tories are about to suffer a mega defeat and Mr Sunak will have to shoulder the blame. The chances that he remains in politics for the five-year duration of the next parliament are slim indeed.
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