Next UK Election Odds: Labour To Crush Tories After Sunak D-Day Mistake

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Next UK Election Odds: Labour To Crush Tories After Sunak D-Day Mistake
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UK betting sites believe the Conservatives have run out of time to turn their disastrous election campaign around and are backing Labour to secure a heavy victory on July 4.

The country is gearing up for a monumental election this summer with the Tories hotly tipped to be booted out of office after 14 years in government.

Rishi Sunak has failed to shift the dial in terms of support for his party, with the Conservatives stuck on the same 20-point mark they were at when he succeeded Liz Truss as prime minister in the autumn of 2022.

Sir Keir Starmer, meanwhile, looks on course to become the next prime minister as Labour sit comfortably on 45 points.

Recent polling data suggests the Conservatives could be on for their first election defeat in more than a century and previously safe seats – such as Jacob Rees-Mogg’s North East Somerset constituency – are now up for grabs.

With a fortnight to go before the election, the big worry for Mr Sunak is not Labour’s dominance but a surge in support for Reform UK.

The Nigel Farage-led, right-wing party is sucking votes away from the Conservatives. The first-past-the-post system, meanwhile, means Labour will likely benefit from this switch in allegiances.

All this means politics betting sites are now predicting a major victory for Sir Keir and Labour. 

There has subsequently been a shift in the betting focus, away from who will win the election to the numbers involved.

UK Election Odds

There are four big markets on betting apps that punters are focusing on heading into this election. They are:

  • Government after the next general election betting
  • Next UK prime minister betting
  • Conservative seats betting
  • Labour seats betting

These markets paint a bad picture for Mr Sunak. It looks practically certain that Labour will form a government and secure a majority. 

Meanwhile, speculation is raging over how damaging this vote could be for the Tories. Here, we examine the four relevant markets that feature next UK election odds:

Established 1997
Politics Specials
Politics Futures Betting
Yes
Yes
Live Markets
18
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Politics Specials
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Yes
Live Markets
21
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Established 2007
Politics Specials
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Live Markets
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Government Odds After The Election

Every UK bookmaker believes Labour will nail a crushing win next month. The polls reckon they could land a 256-seat majority in the Commons. Unibet’s price at 1/40 is fairly standard across the market, although some bookies like Betfred are offering a price of 1/20.

That wider price reflects a 95.2% probability compared to 97.6%, so there’s really not much difference between the bookies.

The Conservatives have failed to land any significant blows on Labour during this campaign, while Mr Sunak’s manifesto launch petered out without much interest.

The prime minister recently went on the LBC phone-in show and was pilloried by callers for the cost of living crisis, immigration, and NHS waiting times.

Mr Sunak’s big pledge has been to cut National Insurance to save households money, although it would mean less funding for the NHS.

Labour haven’t exactly pledged to throw cash at the economy, with Sir Keir insisting growth – not spending – is the best way out of the country’s hole.

Their offer isn’t much more inspiring than the Tories’ but Labour have the advantage of being the change option in this election – and that carries a lot of weight right now.

BetVictor now price a Conservative majority at 50/1 (2% probability). Amazingly, a Conservative-Reform coalition is priced at 33/1 with Betfred, meaning that’s more likely than a sole Tory triumph.

Next UK Prime Minister Odds

If we assume Labour win the upcoming election, then Sir Keir Starmer will be the next prime minister. 

Vague rumours that the Tories would look to depose Mr Sunak and replace him with a new figurehead before the election were swiftly quashed.

Yet this is not a two-horse race anymore. Nigel Farage’s decision to run as leader of Reform in Clacton means the bookies are taking bets on him being PM after the election.

That looks highly unlikely right now but Mr Farage’s odds have already come in to 20/1, while Mr Sunak is sat on 20/1.

Of course, Sir Keir has a healthy lead in the polls and is priced at 1/50 with Betfred to be the next UK prime minister. Those odds carry a 98.04% probability.

Conservative Seats Betting

The high expectation of a Labour majority means bookmakers are offering a wider range of other markets too. One such market is betting on seats, particularly the number of seats the Conservatives stand to lose.

Some polls predicted a Conservative whitewash before Mr Farage entered the frame. Reform, though, suddenly look like a viable challenger to the Conservatives and that paints an even worse picture for Mr Sunak.

Whereas before it looked like the Conservatives may lose between 151-200 of its 344 MPs, now they look on course to drop 201+ seats.

A price of 1/7 is available across new betting sites for the Tories to fail to deliver even 143 MPs in the next parliament.

Amazingly, punters can also get an Evens price at Quinnbet on the Conservatives winning fewer than 100 seats. Those odds have come in ever since polling data suggested the government could end up with just 53 seats. Rishi Sunak might even lose in Richmond and Northallerton.

That is a remarkable situation for one of history’s most successful democratic parties. Meanwhile, Reform are 7/4 to secure seven or more seats this summer.

Established 1997
TV/Awards/Music Betting
Politics Betting
Yes
Yes
Manager Sack Race Betting
Acca Insurance - Y/N Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
Yes
Yes
#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. Min deposit £10 • A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £10 • Min odds 1/2 (1.50) • Free Bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days • Free Bet stakes not included in returns • Casino Bonus Extra Spins must be claimed within 7 days and expires after 14 days • Bonus Extra Spins valid on selected Casino games only • Bonus wins capped at £500, excluding Jackpot wins • To withdraw any winnings from your Extra Spins, you’ll first have to use all of them • T&Cs apply..
Established 2001
TV/Awards/Music Betting
Politics Betting
Yes
Yes
Manager Sack Race Betting
Acca Insurance - Y/N Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
No
No
#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New Customers only. Bet £10* & Get £30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5* and £10* to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration Required. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.
Established 2007
TV/Awards/Music Betting
Politics Betting
Yes
Yes
Manager Sack Race Betting
Acca Insurance - Y/N Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
Yes
Yes
#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Gambleaware.org. New customers. Max £10 (exc. PayPal). 100% Odds Boost Token. Keep it fun - set your deposit limit. T&Cs apply.

Labour Seats Betting

Much of the focus on Labour this summer has been whether they can deliver the same stinging victory that Tony Blair earned in 1997. 

Sir Keir has tried to edge away from the comparisons but some polls suggest they could land more than 418 this time.

Betting sites expect Reform to pick up a few seats but the presence of Mr Farage’s party opens the door for more Labour wins under the first-past-the-post system.

No wonder Betfred have cut their odds on 450-499 Labour MPs to 11/10 in recent days.

Remember, Labour only had 206 MPs at the dissolution of Parliament. To more than double this in one election would be a remarkable achievement.

How The UK Election Works

UK general elections require voters to elect a constituency Member of Parliament from their area. 

There are 650 constituencies in the UK that make up the House of Commons, which is the lower chamber in the country’s parliament.

A party therefore needs 326 MPs to form a majority. If no party has a mandate to form a majority then they can work together to form coalition governments – as happened in 2010 with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – or try to govern as a minority.

Voters back a constituency candidate who is affiliated with a party, or they can vote for independents.

UK elections work on a first-past-the-post system. That means the winner doesn’t need 50% + 1 in order to win. They simply need more votes than any other candidate.

FPTP benefits the bigger parties because more people generally vote for their candidates, even though they might not win outright in their constituencies. A winning candidate may only earn a third of all votes cast, yet still represent that constituency for the next parliament.

Pollsters will track the voting throughout election day on July 4 and then release their exit polls at 10pm. Each constituency then begins their count through the night, and a winner is usually announced in the morning.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the next UK election?

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Is there an election if the Prime Minister resigns?

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Who will win the 2024 UK election?

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What are the latest UK politics odds?

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