Next UK Election Odds: What Price Are Labour, Conservatives And Reform For 2029?

UK betting sites have sensationally flipped their odds on who will win the next UK election and now believe the Conservatives have a better chance of beating Labour in 2029.

The Tories suffered a devastating defeat in July’s election, where they were reduced to just 121 MPs – their worst ever electoral loss.

Since then, they have replaced leader Rishi Sunak with Kemi Badenoch and appear to be sticking on the right fringes of the party. Any suggestions that the Conservatives would seek to capture the centre ground have long disappeared. 

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And yet, Labour’s struggles since returning to power in the summer means bookies have already lost faith in the party.

The latest UK election odds suggest the Conservatives would win the most seats at the next election – even though that’s not scheduled for another four years.

Sir Keir Starmer has endured a tumultuous start to his prime ministership. A freebies scandal dominated newspaper headlines for two months, while Labour’s decision to cut the winter fuel allowance for pensioners caused outrage.

The autumn budget effectively cuts spending and raises taxes primarily on businesses. Labour are sticking to their pledge not to tax “working people” any more and have invested in the NHS – but Starmer’s approval rating has crashed.

It means Labour are now outsiders with political betting sites to win the next election despite their mega majority earned just six months ago.

The UK election odds have changed wildly since the summer. Labour were expected to claim another huge majority in the wake of the last election, with the Tories in turmoil.

2029 UK General Election Odds 

The fact the first-past-the-post system benefits Labour and the Conservatives to the detriment of the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK means this is always going to be a two-horse race for government.

And yet it looks as though Labour may lose that race after just one parliament. Here, we look at the viable outcomes of the 2029 election:

Conservative Majority

BetMGM were one of the first bookmakers to cut the Conservatives’ odds of winning the next election following Badenoch’s appointment as leader, as it became clear they would target Reform voters.

Yet the Tories cannot win any election with the backing of Reform voters alone. They also need Labour voters to defect to them – and this may already be happening.

A petition signed by more than two million people arguing for a snap election was debated – albeit briefly – in parliament. Badenoch has jumped on this to argue that support for Labour has disappeared.

The latest polls still put Labour ahead of the Tories by 29-25. The big shift is in 21% support for Reform.

Were the Conservatives to enter into an election now, then they’d probably end up in coalition with Reform. However, given the next election isn’t scheduled until 2029, Badenoch has enough time to draw voters from both Labour and Reform.

That’s why the bookies reckon she’s in a great place to deliver a majority right now.

BetMGM’s odds suggest a 44.4% chance of Badenoch winning a majority. That’s an impressively short price considering the mess the party found itself in just six months ago.

Labour Majority

There was a moment recently when all betting apps moved as one to inflate their odds on Labour winning a majority at the next election. Starmer’s party are now outsiders at 13/8 with Betfred, which carries a 38.1% probability.

Why did they shift? Well, it’s not just because the Tories have got their house in order. Reform’s continued support and the recent US presidential victory for Donald Trump means centre-left politics isn’t exactly in vogue right now.

Starmer has burned through a lot of political capital since he came to office and has lost plenty of far-left support in the process.

In trying to hold the centre ground, Labour are arguably losing support on the fringes, which is moving to Reform. 

If the Tories can tap into that and eat into Labour’s centrist vote, then Starmer could be looking at a big loss at the next election.

No wonder their odds have inflated so rapidly over the past few months.

Reform UK Majority

This is where all the betting activity is being focused right now. Trump’s victory, the growing influence of Nigel Farage, and a disenfranchised right wing that sees no benefit from a Labour government is fuelling support for Reform UK.

Their odds of winning a majority at the next election have fallen from 6/1 to 3/1 with William Hill in a matter of weeks. Over 47% of all bets on this market are backing Reform, which is fuelling the odds change.

A recent Opinium survey found Reform to be just four points off the Tories and also closing in on Labour.

Now, Reform couldn’t win an election tomorrow, were one to be held. They wouldn’t have enough candidates to post in all 650 seats to even attempt to win a majority.

However, if the next election is in 2029 then Farage – perhaps aided by a Trump White House and wider support elsewhere in Europe – could build a genuine political entity here.

It’s worth noting, though, that Farage could opt to join forces with the Tories or perhaps even take over the party leadership before the next election. 

That would open the door for him to challenge Starmer at the next election one-on-one.

Liberal Democrats

The bookmakers give the Liberal Democrats a 2% of winning the next election. That’s probably being kind to them. This year was a standout election for the Lib Dems as they targeted Tory-backed seats across the south.

The tactic worked and Sir Ed Davey delivered 72 seats to Parliament. However, this is considered a high water mark.

Reform are growing and the Tories surely cannot perform any worse than they did in 2024. If the Conservatives do fail to grow their numbers in 2029 then that will probably be to the benefit of Reform, not the Lib Dems.

Greens

The Green party won four seats at the last election and have plenty of support across the country. However, the way the UK election system works means they’re never going to get near a majority.

While Reform have grown out of the fringes, the Greens still remain on the periphery.

Climate change and environmental issues certainly help throw the Greens into the spotlight. Yet voters seem generally more keen to weigh up their environmental concerns alongside economic and social issues.

That’s why many environmentally-conscious voters still backed Labour or the Lib Dems in 2024. It’s also why sceptics pushed towards Reform, who were promising to roll back green targets.

The Greens might earn more seats at the next election but pushing beyond 10 MPs would be a successful result.

How The UK Election Works

UK general elections require voters to elect a constituency Member of Parliament from their area. 

There are 650 constituencies in the UK that make up the House of Commons, which is the lower chamber in the country’s parliament.

A party therefore needs 326 MPs to form a majority. If no party has a mandate to form a majority then they can work together to form coalition governments – as happened in 2010 with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – or try to govern as a minority.

Voters back a constituency candidate who is affiliated with a party, or they can vote for independents.

UK elections work on a first-past-the-post system. That means the winner doesn’t need 50% + 1 in order to win. They simply need more votes than any other candidate.

FPTP benefits the bigger parties because more people generally vote for their candidates, even though they might not win outright in their constituencies. A winning candidate may only earn a third of all votes cast, yet still represent that constituency for the next parliament.

Pollsters will track the voting throughout election night and then release their exit polls at 10pm. 

Each constituency then begins their count through the night and a winner is usually announced in the morning.