Next UK Election Odds: What Price Are Labour, Conservatives And Reform For 2029?

Betting sites have flipped their odds on who will win the next election, with Reform UK now favourites ahead of Labour.

Yet the latest polls suggest Labour is on the rise, as the government goes against the wishes of its core voters by delivering welfare reform.

Labour won the last election by a landslide but secured only a shallow share of the national vote. 

Reform, by comparison, earned a handful of seats in parliament despite hoovering up four million votes.

Nigel Farage’s party has now overtaken the Conservatives as the popular opposition, even though Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has more MPs in the Commons.

This has led Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer into a policy spiral that courts right-wing voters rather than delivering for the left-wing supporters who put him into power.

All this means politics betting sites are struggling to set accurate odds because parties are not behaving as they usually would. 

Punters need to shut out the media noise when deciding who to back in the next UK election.

2029 UK General Election Odds:

Jostling in the polls this early into a five-year parliamentary cycle doesn’t mean a great deal, but political betting sites are keeping a close eye on what’s going on.

Reform is attracting voters unhappy with the Conservatives after 14 years of stagnant rule, and those wary of Labour following 12 difficult months for the new government.

Farage’s party can freely challenge and question Labour right now because Labour are in such a bind over their management of public finances.

And yet, neither Reform nor the Tories have a significant answer to Starmer’s proposed welfare reforms. Why? Because the reforms are fundamentally right-wing proposals.

The bill that Starmer sought to push through parliament would have saved billions from the welfare budget - but hit the poorest and those on disability benefits the hardest.

Badenoch argued the bill was rushed, so therefore did not vote for it. 

Farage lamented that Starmer caved to concessions from Labour MPs. He wanted to go further than the government.

No wonder right-wing newspapers focused on illegal migration rather than welfare the day after the vote passed.

Much of the post-vote commentary has been about how Starmer has lost control of the Commons. 

Yet Labour’s poll ratings are rising – and that’s because he’s courting Reform voters more than his own.

So, who will win the next election? It’s almost impossible to predict right now – but here are the parties likely to be in the running come 2029.

Reform UK

Farage’s party is now the most popular in the country – but it’s also the most unpopular. 

Polling at 26% is impressive for a new party and it helped Reform secure a number of council seats at the recent local elections.

Reform’s odds to win the most seats at the next election now sit at 5/4 on betting apps, yet it may not be plain sailing for Farage.

Having Reform candidates in local government puts his party to the test. There have already been a few scandals and some resignations.

Reform are also struggling to find the efficiencies it promised to unearth when delivering a DOGE-style policy strategy before the elections.

The question for Reform is: ‘How high is their ceiling?’. The Tories are sitting on their minimal bedrock support of 17%, while Labour are unlikely to fall below 20%. 

Farage is unlikely to ever be universally popular, so Reform may struggle to breach 35% in the polls.

That could be enough to win the most seats but perhaps not a majority at the next election.

Labour

Labour’s struggle to pass key welfare reform legislation this summer appears to have significantly hampered their election chances – according to the bookies. 

Their odds of winning the most seats in parliament have widened to 6/4 with VirginBet.

Yet the polls show positive signs for Starmer and his party. Most Britons oppose benefits cuts to disabled people who are working, but more Conservative and Reform voters support it.

This is crucial. Starmer’s welfare reforms align with his winter fuel allowance policy, national insurance rises and immigration stance. 

Everything is done with the aim of heading off Reform and the Tories, while also trying to keep the economy stable. The problem is, it’s a hard balancing act to get right. 

Labour’s bedrock supporters are unhappy with the government, and backbench MPs have little good news to bring back to their constituents.

Many people voted for Labour in the hope they’d deliver left-wing politics and invest more money into the economy. 

That hasn’t happened, and Starmer appears petrified of the newspaper headlines that would follow if he turned the spending taps on.

So, Labour are holding firm, trying to keep a steady economic ship and endured the public blows that come with it. 

If Starmer can turn the economy around before the next election then he should win another term. 

If not, Reform and perhaps even the Tories could overtake Labour.

Conservatives

Badenoch is still trying to reshape the Conservative Party and there’s no rush. 

We’re still four years away from the next election and voters have a largely negative memory of the party in the post-Covid era.

Labour have captured the centre ground and Reform are hoovering up right-wing voters. It’s Badenoch’s job to reinstate the Conservatives’ relevancy in British politics.

The problem is, if she lurches too far to the right, then moderates in her party would accuse her of pandering to Trump- and Farage-style politics. Seek to eat into Labour’s support and the Tories lose support to Reform.

The party suffered a massive brain drain at the last election, with dozens of former ministers leaving Westminster. They’re starting from scratch, yet still have a bedrock of support around the 17-point mark.

That simply would not be enough – if Labour and Reform remain in the 20s – for Badenoch to contest the next election and win the most seats. 

The Tories could easily finish third. They’re unlikely to win a majority unless they forge a coalition with Reform.

10Bet prices a Conservative win at 4/1. Keep an eye on this price, as it’s likely to fluctuate wildly depending on Badenoch’s progress over the next 18 months.

Liberal Democrats

The bookmakers give the Liberal Democrats a 2.9% chance of winning the next election. 

That’s probably being kind to them. This year was a standout election for the Lib Dems (33/1) as they targeted Tory-backed seats across the south.

The tactic worked and Sir Ed Davey delivered 72 seats to parliament. However, this is considered a high water mark.

Reform are growing and the Tories surely cannot perform any worse than they did in 2024. 

If the Conservatives do fail to grow their numbers in 2029 then that will probably be to the benefit of Reform, not the Lib Dems.

Greens

The Green party won four seats at the last election and have plenty of support across the country. However, the way the UK election system works means they’re never going to get near a majority.

While Reform have grown out of the fringes, the Greens still remain on the periphery.

Climate change and environmental issues certainly help throw the Greens into the spotlight. 

Yet voters seem generally more keen to weigh up their environmental concerns alongside economic and social issues.

That’s why many environmentally-conscious voters still backed Labour or the Lib Dems in 2024. It’s also why sceptics pushed towards Reform, who were promising to roll back green targets.

The Greens (200/1) might earn more seats at the next election but pushing beyond 10 MPs would be a successful result.

How The UK Election Works

UK general elections require voters to elect a constituency Member of Parliament from their area. 

There are 650 constituencies in the UK that make up the House of Commons, which is the lower chamber in the country’s parliament.

A party therefore needs 326 MPs to form a majority. If no party has a mandate to form a majority then they can work together to form coalition governments – as happened in 2010 with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – or try to govern as a minority.

Voters back a constituency candidate who is affiliated with a party, or they can vote for independents.

UK elections work on a first-past-the-post system. That means the winner doesn’t need 50% + 1 in order to win. They simply need more votes than any other candidate.

FPTP benefits the bigger parties because more people generally vote for their candidates, even though they might not win outright in their constituencies. 

A winning candidate may only earn a third of all votes cast, yet still represent that constituency for the next parliament.

Pollsters will track the voting throughout election night and then release their exit polls at 10pm. 

Each constituency then begins their count through the night and a winner is usually announced in the morning.