Next UK Election Odds: Where Labour, Conservatives And Reform Could Be Priced
Labour won a landslide victory at this summer’s UK election but attention for the UK betting sites has turned towards the next election, which must be held by 2029.
The Conservatives are on the ropes after suffering their worst ever electoral defeat. Rishi Sunak will step down as party leader once a replacement is found.
Reform UK, the right-wing, populist party championed by Nigel Farage, collected more than four million votes, but claimed only five seats at the election, following a recount in South Basildon and East Thurrock. They will be gunning for more in the next election.
And then there are the Lib Dems and Greens, both delighted with their lot following successful campaigns, and the SNP that has been reduced to just nine seats.
Combined, these six parties make up the bulk of Great Britain’s MPs, while Northern Ireland has its own cohort of parties in Westminster.
The next UK election must be held by the summer of 2029 and Labour’s large majority suggests they will be favourites on betting apps to hold on to power for five more years.
Here, we look at the possible outcomes for the 2029 UK election based on what’s just happened across the country.
2029 UK Election Odds
New betting sites are yet to release their 2029 election odds, so our experts at Gambling.com have crunched the numbers to determine the probability of various outcomes five years from now.
Party | Odds | Probability |
Labour | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Conservative | 4/1 | 20% |
Conservative/Reform | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Labour Coalition (with any party) | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Any other outcome | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Here, we look at the viable options for 2029.
Labour Majority
The most likely outcome of the 2029 UK election is another Labour majority, which is available at 2/1. That is based on traditional voting habits that suggest large majorities, such as Labour’s now, which is close to Tony Blair’s in 1997, take years to erode.
It could be that Labour stay in power for at least two parliaments, taking us up to 2034. That wouldn’t be a surprise when you consider the size of Labour’s majority.
It’s highly unlikely that Sir Keir Starmer will suffer rebellions big enough to destabilise his government.
The reason these odds are not shorter, though, is because of the Conservatives. The 2024 election is defined by voters fleeing the Tories for Labour, the Lib Dems and Reform.
Will the electorate remember the scandals of Boris Johnson’s premiership, the financial mismanagement of Liz Truss’ tenure or the lack of direction under Rishi Sunak?
Perhaps, or perhaps not. It’s likely, though, that the Conservatives will rebuild their vote share by the end of the decade and that means Labour will lose more seats.
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Conservative Majority
Indeed, we’ve set a tentative price of 4/1 on a Conservative majority at the 2029 election.
If they’re not in a position to even beat the 121 seats won at the 2024 vote then they’re in greater trouble than worrying about being in power.
The rise of Reform as a genuine threat to the Tory party cannot be overstated. Nigel Farage is already eyeing power at the next election.
This might be hyperbole from the architect of Brexit, but Reform still has the ability to hurt the Conservatives.
The Conservative Party needs to pick a direction and stick to it. Most of their remaining MPs are centre-right politicians, not right-wingers in the Reform mould.
Capturing the centre ground wins you elections, so that will be the focus.
The problem is, the Tories tried to pander to the populist right in an effort to stop voters leaving for Reform. It didn’t work, hence the Labour landslide.
If the Conservatives can beat down the Reform argument or even join forces then they have a chance in 2029. If not, they’ll still be fighting Mr Farage and co. as Labour waltz to another majority.
Conservative/Reform Coalition
There is also, of course, the possibility of Reform and the Conservatives joining forces in a coalition capacity, rather than a merger.
This would give both parties the best route to power and keep the other in check.
A Tory/Reform coalition would almost certainly defeat Labour at the ballot box.
However, we’re not sure Mr Farage would take instruction from the next Conservative leader, which is why we’ve priced this outcome out at 5/1 on political betting sites.
The Tories might even end up in a situation where Mr Farage seeks to take over their party.
Labour Coalition (With Any Other Party)
Labour might also need to get into bed with another party to block a Tory/Reform coalition from sweeping the 2029 election. Their options would be limited to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
Both parties enjoyed success on election night and both would be natural coalition partners.
However, this hasn’t been done before and Labour voters are wary of the Lib Dems after they propped up the Tories between 2010 and 2015, a period marked by austerity.
The Greens achieved four MPs in 2024, the same as Reform despite earning half their vote share. They might have hit their ceiling in this parliament, while Reform are likely to grow.
A Labour coalition with any party is priced at 5/1. Starmer might not need many seats to tip over the 326 mark in 2029, but he’ll need to keep his options open, just in case.
Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
Any Other Outcome
There aren’t many other realistic outcomes for the 2029 UK election other than what has been detailed above.
Labour or the Conservatives usually win majorities after elections, or are occasionally propped up by smaller parties.
Mr Farage reckons Reform could be ready for government in 2029, which is perhaps the only possible other outcome as yet not detailed.
The other outcome would be a Liberal Democrat majority, but that would require a Labour implosion and the Conservatives to crumble into obscurity. Winning 71 seats is huge for the Lib Dems but that is probably their ceiling.
Indeed, all the unknown potential is around Reform UK and what they do next. We reckon a Reform government, or any other not described above, is out at 20/1 right now.
How The UK Election Works
UK general elections require voters to elect a constituency Member of Parliament from their area.
There are 650 constituencies in the UK that make up the House of Commons, which is the lower chamber in the country’s parliament.
A party therefore needs 326 MPs to form a majority. If no party has a mandate to form a majority then they can work together to form coalition governments – as happened in 2010 with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – or try to govern as a minority.
Voters back a constituency candidate who is affiliated with a party, or they can vote for independents.
UK elections work on a first-past-the-post system. That means the winner doesn’t need 50% + 1 in order to win. They simply need more votes than any other candidate.
FPTP benefits the bigger parties because more people generally vote for their candidates, even though they might not win outright in their constituencies. A winning candidate may only earn a third of all votes cast, yet still represent that constituency for the next parliament.
Pollsters will track the voting throughout election night and then release their exit polls at 10pm.
Each constituency then begins their count through the night, and a winner is usually announced in the morning.
* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the next UK election?
The next UK election is scheduled for 2029. However, the next UK election could be earlier if like we saw in 2017, the prime minister calls a snap election. That's what Theresa May did two years after the 2015 election.
How often is there a UK election?
UK general elections cannot be held more than five years apart because a single ‘parliament’ has a maximum five-year lifespan. However, a snap election can be held so long as it has the backing of two-thirds of MPs. Prime ministers often call elections in the final year of a parliament, usually in the spring or summer months.
Is there an election if the Prime Minister resigns?
There is no obligation for Parliament to call a new UK election if the Prime Minister resigns their office. This is because the country votes for a party to govern, rather than an individual. This was the case in 2022 when first Boris Johnson and then Liz Truss resigned as prime minister.
Who will win the 2029 UK election?
It's difficult to say at this stage who will win the 2029 general election. It all depends on what Labour do in charge of the country. If they do well, then they will be favourites to stay in power. If they fail to deliver on their manifesto, then the Conservatives could return to power.
What are the latest UK politics odds?
The UK politics betting odds are expected to back Labour at 2/1 to win the 2029 election with a majority. The Conservatives are 4/1 to form a majority government.A Conservative/Reform coalition is 5/1 while a Labour coalition with any party is 5/1.
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