Next UK Election Odds: Betting Market Flees Conservatives For Labour

Date IconLast Updated: 
Share On Your Network
Next UK Election Odds: Betting Market Flees Conservatives For Labour
© PA

UK betting sites are shrinking their odds on Labour winning the next UK election but are also witnessing a flurry of bets on a Conservative-Reform coalition.

Rishi Sunak looks destined to lose his job as UK prime minister once the next election is held. 

He has the authority to hold off until January 2025 before the public have their say, but it’s likely he will plump for an autumn election.

The next six months are destined to be tumultuous in Downing Street as Mr Sunak scrambles to improve his party’s meagre poll ratings.

Labour currently lead the Tories by an average of 20 points and the government is also losing support to Reform UK, the populist right-wing party that is polling on 12%.

Labour would likely steamroll an election were it to be held tomorrow and reclaim many of the Red Wall seats lost in 2019 when Jeremy Corbyn failed to beat Boris Johnson in the snap election.

But UK bookmakers are starting to take notice of Reform UK and punters are wondering whether there is value backing Nigel Farage’s party this year too.

Next UK Election Overall Majority Odds
Best Odds
% Chance
Labour Party
87.49%
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
No Overall Majority
15.38%
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Conservative Party
6.67%
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Teams Best Odds
Labour Party
Bet £10 Get £40 in Bonuses
18+ Opt in, bet £10 (odds 2.00+) on any football market within 7 days of registration. Get £40 in Free Bets on selected events. Free Bets expire in 7 days. Debit Card/Apple Pay payments only. Click for T&Cs. begambleaware.org
1/7BetVictor
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets
New Customers only. Bet £10* & Get £30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5* and £10* to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration Required. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.
1/7Bet365
No Overall Majority
Bet £10 Get £40 in Bonuses
18+ Opt in, bet £10 (odds 2.00+) on any football market within 7 days of registration. Get £40 in Free Bets on selected events. Free Bets expire in 7 days. Debit Card/Apple Pay payments only. Click for T&Cs. begambleaware.org
11/2BetVictor
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets
New Customers only. Bet £10* & Get £30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5* and £10* to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration Required. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.
11/2Bet365
Conservative Party
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets
New Customers only. Bet £10* & Get £30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5* and £10* to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration Required. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.
14/1Bet365
Bet £10 Get £40 in Bonuses
18+ Opt in, bet £10 (odds 2.00+) on any football market within 7 days of registration. Get £40 in Free Bets on selected events. Free Bets expire in 7 days. Debit Card/Apple Pay payments only. Click for T&Cs. begambleaware.org
14/1BetVictor
Bet £10, Get £40 in Free Bets
Visit Site
Spread betting losses can exceed deposit. Plus Best Odds On All Premier League Matches(fixed odds Match Odds, pre-match v top 5 bookies on Oddschecker). See full details.
Bet £10 Get £40 in Bonuses
Visit Site
18+ Opt in, bet £10 (odds 2.00+) on any football market within 7 days of registration. Get £40 in Free Bets on selected events. Free Bets expire in 7 days. Debit Card/Apple Pay payments only. Click for T&Cs. begambleaware.org
Up to £40 Money Back as a Bonus if Your First Football Bet Loses + £10 Casino Bonus!
Visit Site
18+. BeGambleAware.org. New customers only. Min Dep £10. Debit cards only. Opt in for bonus funds. Wagering, sportsbook 3x at min. odds of 1.40 (2/5), casino 50x. Sports bonus must be wagered before using the casino bonus. Valid for 7 days. Geographical Restrictions and T&Cs Apply.
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets
Visit Site
New Customers only. Bet £10* & Get £30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5* and £10* to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration Required. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.
£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 100 Bonus Spins
Visit Site
Min Stake: £5. Maximum Free Bet: £30. First bet on a Football or Horse Racing multiple with 3+ selections. Overall odds: 3.00 (2/1) or higher. Free Bets available upon settlement of the qualifying bet. 100 Extra Spins on Gold Blitz (£0.10 per spin) credited on settlement of qualifying Acca bet. No wagering requirements on extra spin winnings. Debit Card deposit only (exclusions apply). This offer is valid 7 days from the new account being registered. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. Bet the Responsible Way. Full terms apply.
Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets
Visit Site
New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. Mobile exclusive. Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. Free bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. 30 days to qualify. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. Account & Payment method restrictions apply. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP Address only. T&Cs apply.
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets
Visit Site
Play Safe. From 00:01 on 17.10.2022. 3x £10 free bets. Free bets expire after 30 days. New customers signing up through mobile or tablet device only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #ad
Bet £5, Get £20 in Free Bets
Visit Site
New UK+IRE Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply.
Bet £5 Get £20 in Free Bets
Visit Site
New UK+IRE Customers. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 1x £20 free bet. Free bet available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions

UK General Election Odds

Politics betting sites aren’t quite ready to plunge their price on a Reform UK victory, but they nevertheless have the right-wing party at 25/1 to form a winning coalition with the Tories.

That comes in the wake of Lee Anderson’s defection from the Conservatives to Reform, making him the new party’s sole representative in Westminster.

Mr Sunak, desperate for support, has already flirted with the right wing of his party over his Rwanda deportation scheme and small boats policy. 

However, influential figures such as Suella Braverman and Liz Truss aren’t offering much help right now.

No wonder, then, that 15% of all bets on the UK election markets are backing a Reform-Tory coalition victory.

Attention is swinging away from Labour to the drama surrounding the Tories and Reform. However, it’s not stopped the bookies from also nudging in Labour’s price.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party are now 1/7 with BetUK to win a majority. Their odds of securing a minority have also come in to 9/2.

This suggests an 87.5% chance that Sir Keir will be entering No.10 shortly after the next election.

The shortening of Labour’s odds and the new option to bet on Reform-Conservative means there has to be give in the market somewhere. 

That’s come in the form of a Conservative majority, which is now priced way out at 14/1.

Established 2001
Politics Specials
Politics Futures Betting
Yes
Yes
Live Markets
21
#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Begambleaware.org. New Customers only. Bet £10* & Get £30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5* and £10* to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration Required. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.
Established 2007
Politics Specials
Politics Futures Betting
Yes
Yes
Live Markets
21
#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Begambleaware.org. New customers. Max £10 (exc. PayPal). 100% Odds Boost Token. Keep it fun - set your deposit limit. T&Cs apply.
Established 2006
Politics Specials
Politics Futures Betting
Yes
Yes
Live Markets
21
#ad. 18+. Gamble Responsibly. Begambleaware.org. Min Stake: £5. Maximum Free Bet: £30. First bet on a Football or Horse Racing multiple with 3+ selections. Overall odds: 3.00 (2/1) or higher. Free Bets available upon settlement of the qualifying bet. 100 Extra Spins on Gold Blitz (£0.10 per spin) credited on settlement of qualifying Acca bet. No wagering requirements on extra spin winnings. Debit Card deposit only (exclusions apply). This offer is valid 7 days from the new account being registered. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. Bet the Responsible Way. Full terms apply.

Who Will Win The Election?

Rarely has a party entered an election year with such confidence as Labour. 

The party has presented itself as a government in waiting ever since Sir Keir and Rachel Reeves courted heads of state at Davos last year.

Labour have led in the polls since Johnson’s government imploded under the former prime minister’s own series of scandals.

Since then, Ms Truss has blown a £60bn hole in the economy and Rishi Sunak has failed to ignite a passion for his premiership outside of seasoned Tory voters.

Labour are picking up support in constituencies that took Johnson for his word in 2019 when he pledged to “Get Brexit Done”. 

The key challenge for both Keir Starmer and Mr Sunak is to now convince the electorate that they can “Make Brexit Work”.

Labour are now willing to discuss the possibility of re-joining the EU, although that may become an issue once in government. 

Instead, they have successfully courted both left- and right-wing voters, and have hoovered up centrists.

Mr Sunak has nowhere to turn. Rebels are shifting to Reform UK and traditional Tories see potential in Labour. 

Polling fugues show support for the Conservatives hasn’t gone above 28% since the Truss administration.

Right now, it’s impossible to see anything but a Labour win in the next general election. They’re also polling well in Scotland, much to the frustration of the SNP. 

There is talk of a 1997-style whitewash coming this year, which is perhaps overstating Labour’s popularity.

However, a lack of interest in the Conservatives - could with Reform UK being a viable alternative for populists - means Mr Sunak will almost certainly leave Downing Street this year.

FAQ

When is the next UK election?

Down Arrow

How often is there a UK election?

Down Arrow

Is there an election if the Prime Minister resigns?

Down Arrow

Who will win the 2024 UK election?

Down Arrow

What are the latest UK politics odds?

Down Arrow