Next UK Election Odds: What Price Are Labour, Conservatives And Reform For 2029?

UK betting sites have nudged Labour ahead of Reform in the race to win the next election, with the Conservatives languishing a long way off in third place.

Reform’s recent surge in the polls meant they had been neck-and-neck with Labour for weeks, as Nigel Farage sets his sights on Downing Street.

But a recent by-election victory for Labour in Scotland – a small but potentially significant win – has triggered a shift in the politics odds.

Labour are once again favourites on betting apps to win the next election in what is a reprieve for prime minister Sir Keir Starmer after months of falling poll ratings.

However, Reford's unexpected success in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse (they came third from nowhere, with 26% of the vote) means Starmer is still looking over his shoulder.

Farage is his main opposition right now, with the Conservatives in total obscurity.

The UK isn’t scheduled to hold a general election until 2029 but that hasn’t stopped online bookmakers from setting their odds on the result.

And they’ve been adjusting the UK election odds every few days in response to the frantic news cycle.

2029 UK General Election Odds 

Jostling in the polls this early into a five-year parliamentary cycle doesn’t mean a huge amount but politics betting sites are keeping a close eye on what’s going on.

Labor and Reform had been joint-favourites ever since Farage’s party won a swathe of seats in May’s local elections across England.

However, Labour have clawed back a lead thanks to Starmer’s trade deals struck with the US and EU, as well as a willingness to retreat on the winter fuel allowance cuts.

Here’s a look at the main political parties seeking to grab power at the next election and what we reckon will happen over the coming years.

Labour

Labour won the last election with a massive majority, which has given Starmer enough room to implement an austerity-light fiscal policy. 

His pledge not to spend beyond the country’s means – unless it’s for infrastructure projects – appeases the centre-right but not Labour’s core left support.

Starmer is walking a tricky balancing act at present. He’s determined not to throw cash at the UK’s economic issues and wants closer ties with the EU. 

Yet some factors are out of his control. Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean tougher times lie ahead of Labour.

What’s more, green pledges that were fundamental to Labour’s left-wing support at the last election are under threat. Starmer needs to begin selling a brighter future for the UK soon or voters will turn against him.

The polls have Labour on 22%, while Reform are surging on 30%. The Conservatives are way behind on 17%. It’s not a great position for Starmer to be in but the bookies reckon Labour will bounce eventually.

Why? Because there are still four years of this parliament remaining and Reform – now they have power of councils in England – will have their policies put to the test.

Punters evidently reckon Reform’s recent upwards trajectory can’t last forever. The big question is where Reform’s supporters drift to over the next few years.

Labour are 5/4 with Ladbrokes to win the most seats at the next election.

Conservatives

Badenoch is still trying to reshape the Conservative Party and there’s no rush. We’re still four years away from the next election and voters have a largely negative memory of the party in the post-Covid era.

Labour have captured the centre ground and Reform are hoovering up right-wing voters. It’s Kemi Badenoch’s job to reinstate the Conservatives’ relevancy in British politics.

The problem is, if she lurches too far to the right, then moderates in her party would accuse her of pandering to Trump- and Farage-style politics. Seek to eat into Labour’s support and the Tories lose support to Reform.

The party suffered a massive brain drain at the last election, with dozens of former ministers leaving Westminster. They’re starting from scratch, yet still have a bedrock of support around the 17-point mark.

That simply would not be enough – if Labour and Reform remain in the 20s – for Badenoch to contest the next election and win the most seats. 

The Tories could easily finish third. They’re unlikely to win a majority unless they forge a coalition with Reform.

10Bet prices a Conservative win at 4/1. Keep an eye on this price, as it’s likely to fluctuate wildly depending on Badenoch’s progress over the next 18 months.

Reform UK

Farage is in complete control of his party right now. Reform is polling at 30 points and shocked analysts in Scotland when winning a quarter of the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse vote.

The party’s leader has successfully ousted dissenter Rupert Lowe. Party chairman Zia Yusuf has resigned, seemingly after newly-elected MP Sarah Pochin used her first question in parliament to call on Sir Keir Starmer to ban the burka.

We’re yet to see how Yusuf’s exit affects the polls but Pochin has support from influential Reform MP Lee Anderson.

It will be interesting to see where Reform goes from here. Farage has tried to keep the party away from right-wing extremes in order to attract Labour voters. 

However, a civil war seems to be brewing that could strain his influence.

Reform is currently a protest party whose core identity is in being “not the other two”. But Farage needs to define what his party stands for on a swathe of issues – not just migration.

Farage has come out with a swathe of policy suggestions but Labour have hit back, saying he’d crash the economy like Liz Truss.

Right now it’s a battle of semantics. Nothing will change until the 2029 election. But Coral reckon Reform are in a good place to win and have them at 11/8 – narrowly behind Starmer’s government.

Liberal Democrats

The bookmakers give the Liberal Democrats a 2.9% chance of winning the next election. 

That’s probably being kind to them. This year was a standout election for the Lib Dems as they targeted Tory-backed seats across the south.

The tactic worked and Sir Ed Davey delivered 72 seats to parliament. However, this is considered a high water mark.

Reform are growing and the Tories surely cannot perform any worse than they did in 2024. If the Conservatives do fail to grow their numbers in 2029 then that will probably be to the benefit of Reform, not the Lib Dems.

Greens

The Green party won four seats at the last election and have plenty of support across the country. However, the way the UK election system works means they’re never going to get near a majority.

While Reform have grown out of the fringes, the Greens still remain on the periphery.

Climate change and environmental issues certainly help throw the Greens into the spotlight. Yet voters seem generally more keen to weigh up their environmental concerns alongside economic and social issues.

That’s why many environmentally-conscious voters still backed Labour or the Lib Dems in 2024. It’s also why sceptics pushed towards Reform, who were promising to roll back green targets.

The Greens might earn more seats at the next election but pushing beyond 10 MPs would be a successful result.

How The UK Election Works

UK general elections require voters to elect a constituency Member of Parliament from their area. 

There are 650 constituencies in the UK that make up the House of Commons, which is the lower chamber in the country’s parliament.

A party therefore needs 326 MPs to form a majority. If no party has a mandate to form a majority then they can work together to form coalition governments – as happened in 2010 with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – or try to govern as a minority.

Voters back a constituency candidate who is affiliated with a party, or they can vote for independents.

UK elections work on a first-past-the-post system. That means the winner doesn’t need 50% + 1 in order to win. They simply need more votes than any other candidate.

FPTP benefits the bigger parties because more people generally vote for their candidates, even though they might not win outright in their constituencies. 

A winning candidate may only earn a third of all votes cast, yet still represent that constituency for the next parliament.

Pollsters will track the voting throughout election night and then release their exit polls at 10pm. 

Each constituency then begins their count through the night and a winner is usually announced in the morning.