Next Tory Leader Odds: Who Will Be Next Conservative Leader?

Author Image Article By
Last Updated: 
Share On Your Network
Next Tory Leader Odds: Who Will Be Next Conservative Leader?
© PA

Betting sites have plunged their odds on Penny Mordaunt replacing Rishi Sunak as the next Conservative leader, perhaps in time for the next election.

Mr Sunak is under pressure from his own MPs to improve Tory poll numbers as the UK gears up for a likely general election in the autumn.

Not scared of deposing their leaders, Conservatives appear to have a choice between three women to take them into a new era, should Mr Sunak be ousted.

Ms Mordaunt is now top of the list, with Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman also seemingly in contention.

Mr Sunak insists he is getting on with running the country, but must have one eye looking over his shoulder. 

The Tories are wary that polls and UK election odds suggest Labour could secure a 1997-style landslide that could cast the Conservatives into opposition for the next decade.

Recent leaks to the media suggest Ms Mordaunt’s team is confident they can get rid of Mr Sunak before the May local elections. 

That would mark one final throw of the dice as the Conservatives face nationwide obliteration.

And betting sites reckon it’s the more centrist figure of Ms Mordaunt who has the best chance of becoming PM if Mr Sunak does indeed walk.

Who Will Replace Sunak?

Indeed, it looks almost certain that Mr Sunak will lose his job via his own MPs or the electorate. Either way, he’s unlikely to still be living in No 10 in 2025.

Here, we assess the top three candidates to succeed him:

Penny Mordaunt

Betting apps had Ms Mordaunt at 33/1 to be the UK’s next prime minister after the next election, but in the space of a day, she is now 13/2. That puts her level with Mr Sunak, but still way behind Sir Keir Starmer, who is currently 1/6.

Still, it’s evident Ms Mordaunt is now the big frontrunner to be the next Tory leader. She went for the job in 2022, but lost out to Liz Truss. Now she’s back as another centrist option should the party oust the incumbent PM.

Interestingly, her allies are trying to blame others within the party for making Ms Mordaunt seem disloyal to Mr Sunak. Whether that line sticks remains to be seen.

What’s evident is Ms Mordaunt does have eyes on the top job. As leader of the Commons, she has an influential position within parliament, yet her own seat isn't necessarily safe at the next election.

Her odds could well fluctuate over the coming months, but at 11/4 on politics betting sites, she is the frontrunner right now.

Kemi Badenoch

Ms Badenoch is less subtle than Ms Mordaunt when it comes to showing her political allegiances. 

While she insists she backs the PM for now, the business and trade secretary has no issue flirting with the right of her party.

Ms Badenoch has steadily gathered support among MPs and polls well among Tory voters. However, she is not popular across the wider electorate.

This could harm her chances in a leadership contest, because the Conservatives will want to pick a candidate who can beat Sir Keir at the next election. For now, Ms Mordaunt appears to be that option.

However, betting sites still give Ms Badenoch a 3/1 price of replacing Mr Sunak. She has a greater share of the total bets than anyone else in the field.

Suella Braverman

The right-wing choice, Ms Braverman was sacked as home secretary last autumn, and has swiftly become an influential backbench rebel. 

She is a hugely controversial figure, but her Rwanda deportation plan has support among the populists in the Tory ranks.

There’s been a lot of chatter about Ms Braverman potentially defecting to Reform UK. However, she is more likely to go for the Tory party leadership, where she can be far more influential.

Ms Braverman is priced at 6/1 to succeed Mr Sunak, and it’s likely she will be the option if the Tories lose the next election. 

Were the leadership contest to come before that, then the job is probably going to Ms Mordaunt or Ms Badenoch.

However, if Mr Sunak stays on and loses the next election, then Ms Braverman will be perfectly placed to succeed him.

Best Of The Rest

There are a few other names floating around who could have a stab at the Tory leadership, were Mr Sunak to walk. 

However, all of these would likely have to make their pitch after the election, when the Conservatives are in opposition. They’d also have to have successfully defended their seats too.

James Cleverly at 10/1 is well priced. He is the current home secretary and well regarded across the parliamentary party. 

Robert Jenrick carries slightly longer odds of 12/1 and has done plenty of governmental roles over the years to lend him to the top job.

After that there is something of a drop-off in terms of fresh talent. Nigel Farage (20/1) just isn’t going to lead the Tories in opposition any time soon. 

Former prime ministers David Cameron (20/1) and Boris Johnson (18/1) don’t even have seats. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is priced way out at 33/1.

Mr Hunt’s odds are perhaps the biggest surprise. While he won’t oust Mr Sunak, he could well push for the job if the PM quits after the next election. 

His odds are sure to tumble, and it’s hard to know why they haven’t already.

Author Image Article By
Last Updated: 
Facebook Icon Twitter Icon Linkedin Icon Email Icon Copy Link Icon