Betting Opens on Joe Biden Completing Full Term of Presidency
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Joe Biden appears to have pulled off an impressive feat of political manoeuvring by striking a deal with Republicans to raise the US debt ceiling – but UK betting sites don’t think the move has improved his chances of winning re-election.
Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have struck an agreement over government spending that avoids an impending shutdown on June 5. All they need to do now is sell it to Congress.
It has been billed as a “compromise” and both sides are taking credit for the agreement.
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Biden appears to have ceded on some big spending commitments in order to avoid a government shutdown, but avoids the politically disastrous situation of the country running out of money.
And while many believe the president is the overall winner from the deal, the bookmakers aren’t convinced that it significantly boosts his chances at the next election.
Indeed, even his odds of serving a full first term – currently set at 1/5 – have not budged on the basis of the debt agreement.
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Joe Biden Odds
According to political betting sites, Biden has been the 6/4 favourite to win the next election for some weeks.
That price carries a 40% probability, which is remarkably low for a sitting president who almost certainly will get a boost at the polls come November 2024.
Biden is favourite to win next year but his odds will need to improve dramatically if he is to secure four more years.
Back in 2012 Barack Obama was priced at 1/5 to beat Mitt Romney on the eve of that election.
Obama crushed his opponent in a display of strength that usually comes from an incumbent president seeking re-election.
Biden, though, doesn’t have the poll cushion that Obama had. In fact, he’s polling closer to how Donald Trump was perceived in 2020 than Obama in 2012.
And this is a big problem for the president because next year his viable rivals for the job will be reduced from two to one.
The Republican primaries will pit Trump against Ron DeSantis – and right now the pair are splitting the GOP odds between them.
Bookmakers rate Trump at 5/2 to win in 2024, and DeSantis at 4/1. As soon as the Republicans pick their nominee the odds will tumble, possibly into the favourite position.
2024 US Presidential Election Odds
Thursday 1st June 2023
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% Chance | ||||||||||
| Joe Biden | 38.10% |
-- | 13/8 | 6/4 | 6/4 | 6/4 | 11/8 |
-- | 6/4 | 6/4 |
| Donald Trump | 28.57% |
-- | 12/5 | 12/5 | 5/2 | 9/4 | 9/4 |
-- | 9/4 | 12/5 |
| Ron Desantis | 18.18% |
-- | 4/1 | 9/2 | 9/2 | 9/2 | 4/1 |
-- | 9/2 | 9/2 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr | 5.26% |
-- | 14/1 | 14/1 | 18/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 |
-- | 18/1 | 14/1 |
| Kamala Harris | 2.94% |
-- | 25/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 28/1 |
-- | 33/1 | 33/1 |
Team
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Issues For Biden
This is the sticking point that Biden cannot directly address until the GOP has made up its mind on who to back for president.
All the incumbent can do is get on with the job at hand, and let the right duke it out amongst themselves.
It means both Trump and DeSantis are getting air time, and their odds are coming in accordingly.
Trump has flared around 5/2 since the start of the year, while DeSantis’ odds have come in from 5/1 with betting apps since he announced his election push on Twitter this May.
The pair are scheduled for rallies across America over the coming months, and will spend their energy and money courting voters, politicians, donors and the media.
They can take free shots at Biden, with the president too preoccupied with running the country to fight back.
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This will all change a year from now when the Democrats know who they’re facing at the next election. But until then Biden’s poll ratings are likely to worsen.
He’s avoided a debt ceiling crisis but his approval rate has fallen back to 41.5% and there is now a -13.3% overall rating.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s aggression towards Taiwan and Japan, rising inflation and an impending climate crisis are not helping Biden’s cause.
What’s worse, his hope to spend his way out of trouble has been curtailed by the GOP-majority House successfully negotiating investment reductions during the debt ceiling talks.
The Dems aren’t in crisis just yet, but with every passing month Biden appears further and further away from re-election. This will only be exacerbated next spring, when the real battle for the White House begins.
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