Betting Opens on Joe Biden Completing Full Term of Presidency

Date IconLast Updated: 26 Feb 2024
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Betting Opens on Joe Biden Completing Full Term of Presidency
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UK betting sites are flip-flopping with how to price Joe Biden heading into the 2024 US election, but most expect him to complete his first term as president and take on Donald Trump.

Biden will turn 82 just days after the November 5 election and concerns over his age and senility have affected his campaign for a second term.

Trump, four years his junior, has shot ahead in the polls and is expected to win the Republican nomination this spring before turning his attention to the White House.

UK bookmakers usually give the incumbent a better chance of winning re-election because voters are more prone to back the status quo – the current president – over a challenger. That’s why America has so many two-term presidents.

However, Trump is a different case because he has already spent four years in the Oval Office. It means Americans effectively have a choice to make after seeing both men in action.

That choice, for now, appears to be going to Trump. Many bookies are also fleeing Biden by shifting his price to win re-election ever higher. 

However, some are now beginning to shorten their odds too.

Joe Biden Odds

The indecision in this market is good for bettors who like to monitor the odds and take advantage of the difference across political betting sites. 

Some have Biden as short as 2/1 to win the next election, while others, have floated their odds around the 5/2 point.

There are two major factors behind the lack of consistency in the odds. The first is uncertainty over whether Biden can actually beat Trump. 

The gaffe-prone president is polling at a dire rate and even young voters are starting to edge towards Trump.

The second is the level of support for Trump in the betting markets. An eye-watering 58.3% of all wagers on the 2024 US election have sided with Trump. 

The data covers the last four years, meaning Trump’s recent support is actually even higher.

Biden, by comparison, has taken just 18.7% of all bets.

This trend has sunk Trump’s odds and spiralled Biden’s. Yet it also seemingly reflects the status both men find themselves in.

Biden is struggling for support, but Trump is soaring in the GOP polls and looks set to beat Nikki Haley to the party nomination. He leads Biden in most polls, although some call it a dead heat

This is despite the looming threat of jail time and financial set-backs brought about by a recent New York lawsuit.

2024 US Presidential Election Odds
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Donald Trump
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Biden Betting Worse Than Polls

The polls reckon Biden has roughly a 44% chance of winning the 2024 US presidential election, with Trump closer to 50%. 

Yet the odds carry an implied probability of 30% for Biden and 50% for his rival.

This here shows the split between the betting markets and the pollsters. Do betting apps and punters know something the rest of us don’t?

Perhaps they do. After all, the bookies more accurately predicted Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in 2016. 

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While pollsters gave Clinton a 90% chance of winning, many bookmakers priced it closer to 60:40.

The odds on Biden, then, either negatively reflect his chances of winning the next election or prove that he polls are off.

Of course, we’re still months out from the big vote and a lot can happen between then and now. Biden is facing a trial by public over his perceived mental decline. 

Donald Trump is facing four criminal trials this year and may be sent down for any one of them.

This election is too fraught with complications to properly call right now. 

However, punters can take advantage of good odds for Trump, who is likely going to drop a percentage point or two in the spring.

Whether that’s enough for Biden to win the next election, we’ll have to wait and see.