Why US Election Bettors Are Ignoring Polls To Side With Trump
The US election betting odds have captured the imagination of political experts in recent days after Donald Trump’s price to win the 2020 vote overtook Joe Biden.
Trump is trailing by as much as 13 points in some election polls yet his odds suggest this race is neck-and-neck.
The swing for the president saw his price come in from 6/4 to Evens (1/1) within a week of his speech at the Republican National Convention.
Biden, meanwhile, once enjoyed 63% implied probability of winning the race to the White House but those odds have widened in recent days.
And while a flurry of media outlets reported on the odds shift, Gambling.com can reveal the reason behind the swing towards Trump.
Punters Deflating Trump Odds
According to William Hill spokesperson Rupert Adams, it’s all to do with voter confidence.
“A lot of people have got in early,” Rupert told Gambling.com. “That's why it's changed over the past 48 hours or so. It was the market righting itself.
“Biden got too short and Trump was just too tempting a price.”
Indeed, Trump’s odds have now deflated so much that a bounce-back could be in the offing.
What’s more, the businessman’s emphatic 2016 election victory over Hilary Clinton is also causing a hangover in the markets four years on.
"There were a lot of people out there who made significant amounts of money on Trump last time. All the big bets were for Hillary, all the hedge fund managers were confident Hillary would win,” Rupert added.
"But the mass of small bets were largely on Trump. And that is pretty well the opposite to what is happening now. The big punters are siding with Trump, while the smaller punters are going for Biden at the moment.”
And the same is happening across the board. Ladbrokes’ Jess O’Reilly revealed over 90% of all bets in the last fortnight have backed Trump.
"We simply cannot give Biden away to punters as they are only interested in backing the Republican for a second term, which is clearly at odds with the polls and other media outlets, but money talks,” Jess said.
US Election Odds Set To Shift
There’s no mistaking that the fluctuations in odds over recent days have caught some bettors off guard.
And bookmakers are likely to see their odds rise and fall over the next two months as both Trump and Biden prepare for three televised debates.
"I'm sure it's going to seesaw,” added Rupert. “The political situation in the USA, with the Black Lives Matter movement, coronavirus and unemployment – there will be plenty more moves [in the market].
"It will be extremely volatile. And there will be a lot of people betting in that position.
"Industry-wise the US election will be worth around £50m in the UK – and that's just the Biden v Trump market. We've taken about £5m on it already.
“Once you've added in states betting and other specials then you're easily talking £50m plus."
On the Betfair Exchange meanwhile, £70.7m has already been traded in what will be the biggest betting attraction of the year.
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