All Blacks vs South Africa: Latest Odds and Analysis

All Blacks vs South Africa: Latest Odds and Analysis
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History has been made once again for the All Blacks, and once again in 2022 it’s not the sort they wanted. 

According to betting sites, they will go into the second test against the Springboks as the highest priced outsiders in their entire history. 

Why? Obviously because they have lost five out of their last six tests, therefore making a solid case for this being the worst period ever in All Black history. 

They also now travel to arguably the most intimidating environment in world rugby in the early hours of Sunday morning. 

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Ellis Park has long been the Springboks’ favoured home venue for tests of this magnitude and holds special significance as the place where they won their first ever World Cup, in 1995.

To say things are bad in New Zealand rugby right now is the understatement of the century, with pressure reaching unbearable levels on the playing and coaching staff. 

Coach Ian Foster is at short odds to be unemployed this time next week, so really this test has a nothing-to-lose feel about it.

That could influence the way the All Blacks go about playing it, and also have have an impact on their Rugby World Cup 2023 betting odds.

What Happened Last Time

Quite simply, the Springboks showed up and did exactly what everyone thought they were going to. The problem for the All Blacks is that they couldn’t do anything about it. 

Kurt-Lee Arendse’s opening try was the fourth time in-a-row this season that the All Blacks have conceded one in the opening 10 minutes of a test. 

From there, the Springboks simply tackled and kicked their way to victory. Handre Pollard was perfect from the tee and Willie le Rouz’s try on full time made it among the heaviest defeats the All Blacks have ever suffered.

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Afterwards, Foster made a quickly ridiculed comment that it was the New Zealand’s “most improved performance of the season”. 

While it may seem strange to say that after a heavy loss, there certainly is an element of truth to it – the All Black defence at the lineout was better and they did keep the Springboks out of their 22 for the most part. 

Other than that, they offered nothing on attack and gave away key penalties that kept the scoreboard ticking over for the Springboks. Even the late red card to Arendse meant nothing in the grand scheme of things.

What Will Happen This Weekend

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The best rugby betting sites are expecting more of the same, unless something drastic has changed in the All Black set up this week. 

The Springboks have made five changes to their starting XV, with Arendse obviously replaced by Jesse Kriel due to suspension, while Jaden Hendrikse will continue at half-back after playing almost all of the opening test anyway due to Faf de Klerk’s injury. 

Duane Vermuelen returns from injury at number eight while the front row rotates.

New assistant All Black coach Jason Ryan’s influence on the forwards has been evident, however it’s the New Zealand attack that needs work. 

It will all come down to how often the back three can touch the ball without having to field a Springbok kick, as the cover defence last weekend was good enough to simply swallow them up.

Really though, this was shaping as the hardest test of the year for the All Blacks - even without the added pressure on them due to the prior losses - and the visitors are 13/8 outsiders with William Hill to win at Eden Park. 

The Springboks are world champions and 2/5 favourites with BetVictor to win this game. 

Also, this is the first time many of the All Blacks have even been to South Africa, let alone played there. 

The last time they were there was in 2018, with events since meaning that South African sides have left Super Rugby and therefore taken away the commonality of visiting for New Zealand sides.

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All Blacks Squad

Forwards (Age, Team / Region and Caps):

Hookers

Dane Coles (35, Hurricanes / Wellington, 81), Samisoni Taukeiaho (24, Chiefs / Waikato, 11), Codie Taylor (31, Crusaders / Canterbury, 69).

Props

Aidan Ross (26, Chiefs / Bay of Plenty, 1), George Bower (30, Crusaders / Otago, 14), Nepo Laulala (30, Blues / Counties Manukau, 41), Ofa Tu’ungafasi (30, Blues / Northland, 47), Ethan de Groot (23, Highlanders / Southland, 4), Angus Ta’avao (32, Chiefs / Auckland, 22).

Locks

Scott Barrett (28, Crusaders / Taranaki, 50), Brodie Retallick (31, Chiefs / Hawke’s Bay, 95), Patrick Tuipulotu (29, Blues / Auckland, 42). Tupou Vaa’i (22, Chiefs / Taranaki, 12), Samuel Whitelock (33, Crusaders / Canterbury, 134).

Loose Forwards

Sam Cane – Captain (30, Chiefs / Bay of Plenty, 80), Shannon Frizell (28, Highlanders / Tasman, 17), Akira Ioane (27, Blues / Auckland, 14), Dalton Papalii (24, Blues / Counties Manukau, 15), Ardie Savea (28, Hurricanes / Wellington, 62), Hoskins Sotutu (24, Blues / Counties Manukau, 10). 

Backs (Age, Team / Region and Caps):

Half-backs

Finlay Christie (26, Blues / Tasman, 6), Folau Fakatava (22, Highlanders / Hawke’s Bay, 2), Aaron Smith (33, Highlanders / Manawatu, 105).

First five–eighths

Beauden Barrett (31, Blues / Taranaki, 104), Richie Mo’unga (28, Crusaders / Canterbury, 35), Stephen Perofeta (25, Blues / Taranaki 0).

Midfielders

Jack Goodhue (27, Crusaders / Northland, 18), David Havili (27, Crusaders / Tasman, 16), Rieko Ioane (25, Blues / Auckland, 50), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (29, Blues / Auckland, 1), Quinn Tupaea (23, Chiefs / Waikato, 9).

Outside backs

Jordie Barrett (25, Hurricanes / Taranaki, 39), Caleb Clarke (23, Blues / Auckland, 5), Leicester Fainga’anuku (22, Crusaders / Tasman, 2), Will Jordan (24, Crusaders / Tasman, 15), Sevu Reece (25, Crusaders / Tasman, 20)

South Africa v New Zealand Facts

The All Blacks and Springboks have played 14 times at Ellis Park since 1928. The Springboks have won nine and New Zealand five, while the average score in these matches was 23-21.

Handre Pollard is the second highest point scorer against New Zealand with 136 points in 13 Test matches, just three points less than Morné Steyn with 139 points in 13 Test matches.

The All Blacks run of poor form is their worst since 1998, when they lost five tests in-a-row. 

All of those losses were to the Wallabies, who went on to win the Rugby World Cup a year later, and the Springboks, who were in the midst of a record-equalling 17 test win streak.

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