Tips for Betting on UK Politics: Labour Party Odds
When it comes to betting on politics, there are few more fascinating parties than the UK Labour party. The party that grew out of the trade union movement in the early 1900s, Labour is considered one of the two main political parties of the UK. Yet assessing Labour party UK general election candidates can be chaos.
What’s great about Labour from a political betting standpoint is that the drama can often spill over, and against-the-odds candidates can suddenly become leaders. That’s the main thing with a party that arguably champions social advancement over cold financial dogma – there’s a lot to lose and gain in left-wing politics.
Betting on Labour during general elections can be fraught with inconsistencies. But this is great for punters who prefer against-the-odds wagers that can trigger hefty payouts in otherwise neglected markets. There is always potential in regularly assessing Labour's odds to win the next election. Perhaps political betting isn't as glamorous as football or horse racing. But sticking a few quid on the Labour party can produce profits if you know where to look.
This guide will take you through the UK Labour general election candidates, what the latest political betting odds are, and the where you could turn a profit come the 2024 general election.
How to Predict Who Will Lead the Labour Party Next
Predicting the next Labour leader isn't as difficult as one might expect. That's because over the years Labour has tended to select a very different leader from the figure who is being ousted. This unpredictability often leads to mixed sources when looking for ante-post betting odds on Labour to win the next election.
Tony Blair, for example, was nothing like both Neil Kinnock and John Smith - and his centre-left policies drove Labour into power in 1997.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn couldn't have been more different from Ed Miliband, and his selection in 2015 rocked the party, resulting in five years of far-left discourse that some argue made Labour unelectable. Once Corbyn left his post, the leadership swung back towards the centre in the case of Sir Keir Starmer.
Working out the Labour party UK general election candidates is therefore not as tricky as one may suppose. If the incumbent is a centrist and loses the next election, then there's likely to be a flip towards the far-left. Likewise, if Labour goes into the next UK election with a far-left leader and loses, then the party will swing back to the centre.
The actual intricacies of Labour's leadership selection process are complicated, however. Figuring out how the UK Labour party works when selecting its leader is a political minefield. When there is a vote for a new leader, candidates get on the ballot by obtaining 10% of MP nominations. From here, they then need support from several trade unions and other affiliate groups. There is then a final ballot among members, at which point a leader is announced.
Regarding Labour leadership betting, then, it's just as important to look at the current leader since the ballot is the list of potential replacements. Of course, making that prediction still isn't easy. Corbyn was a huge outsider when he won the leadership contest in 2015, while Miliband wasn't expected to beat his brother David in 2010, as Labour came to terms with being booted out of government earlier that year.
Yet there's a difference between betting on a Labour leader and a Labour PM. The market for the next Labour UK prime minister betting odds is often in flux because there's uncertainty as to when the incumbent could be axed. The likes of Blair, Miliband and Corbyn endured plenty of rebellions during their time - simply keeping the party united is a job in itself.
Typical Traits of a Labour Leader
Until Blair, Labour leaders over the past few decades were generally sourced from working-class backgrounds. The working classes are Labour's heartland and the likes of Harold Wilson, James Callaghan and Ramsay MacDonald were leaders from the working classes that championed unionism over the Conservative individualist rhetoric.
But since Blair, Labour has endured an identity crisis that has seen the party shift from the centre to the far left, and back again. Blair reasoned that centrist politics would get Labour into power, which was better than more years in opposition. But many believed the concessions made to gain power cost Labour its left-wing identity. The backlash came when outsider Corbyn shocked the political odds to win the leadership in 2015.
Having a strong moral compass when it comes to workers' rights and practices is paramount for a Labour leader who wants the support of the unions. But being able to nimbly navigate the choppy waters of the party machine - where vested interests are always in flux - is the biggest requirement for the leader.
Having everyone onside gives Labour a chance at winning an election. But more often than not, internal fractions play out in front of the wider public, and a unified Conservative party secures a majority.
What are the Odds of a Labour Parliament Majority?
In the matter of betting on Labour in a general election, then the chances of the party nailing a majority can fluctuate. But not since 2005 has Labour been the favourites to win a majority. This shows just how far the party has fallen since the heady days of Blair. In 2010, a hung parliament resulted in a Tory/Lib Dem coalition government kicking Labour out of power, and five years later, the Conservatives strengthened their hold.
Labour caused a shock in 2017 but still didn't oust the Tories, and the 2019 snap election was a disaster for Corbyn. Heading into 2024, the Conservatives have a strong majority and Labour is struggling to win back centrist voters.
Therefore, it's no surprise that the latest odds on a Labour parliament majority for the next general election is priced at 6/1 - odds that carry a 14.3% probability. The Tories, in contrast, are Evens to secure another majority, while No Overall Majority is also priced at Evens.
Labour Party General Election Candidates 2024
Looking at the most popular Labour candidates for general election 2024 is a minefield of names right now. Starmer may well be in charge at the moment, but he is not guaranteed to be there for the 2024 vote. After all, if Labour's poll ratings don't improve soon, then the leader may face a challenge to his crown.
What's more, internal wrangling within the Labour party never stops - and if Starmer is unpopular with the members, he will struggle to gain traction on a national level.
Away from Starmer, the likes of Lisa Nandy, Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner are all tipped to one day replace the leader. Could one of these three be in charge come the 2024 election? Possibly. But so could a rank outsider, as Corbyn showed in 2015.
Manchester mayor Burnham is the current frontrunner at 2/1 in the UK politics odds to be the next Labour leader, but that may only come if Starmer steps down before the general election.
Another candidate is London mayor Sadiq Khan, who could follow the same trajectory as Boris Johnson and move into national politics once his stint in the capital ends. Khan is a popular figure within the party and could well resonate with Labour's base - but right now he is out at 25/1 to succeed Starmer.
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