Will Corbyn, May & Cable All Leave in 2019? Odds & Analysis

Will Corbyn, May & Cable All Leave in 2019? Odds & Analysis

Quick Tips:


Obviously, British politics is incredibly unpredictable right now. Nobody knows what is happening this month, let alone the future. We don’t know when the next general election will be or, in the wake of The Independent Group, even which parties will be competitive.

If, as scheduled, there is no election until 2022, it is safe to presume that at least two of the main party leaders will no longer be there - Theresa May and Vince Cable have already committed to standing down. Much to his detractors’ frustration, Jeremy Corbyn has made no such pledge but the Labour leader is having a very rough time.

As Brexit unfolds, don’t be surprised if the leaders are swept away. The top political betting sites have started to list markets - Ladbrokes offering 6/1 that all three are gone by the end of 2019. I reckon that represents decent value and will appear so at some point later this year, perhaps enabling an easy cover bet.

Cable to be Replaced by a Younger Alternative Soon

When Cable pledged to stand down after Brexit is completed or stopped, most thought that would now be imminent. Perhaps it is but, if Brexit drags on for years, the Lib Dems won’t become viable under his leadership. He has been invisible in media coverage and now the relentlessly newsworthy TIG have camped on the party’s centrist lawn.

Cable has already mooted a new electoral alliance. Any such move could be problematic with their members, who were already weighing plans to give non-members a chance to vote in party elections or even take leadership roles.

Expect this to be resolved one way or another this summer. Whatever happens, the status quo won’t survive. They will switch to a much younger leader - Layla Moran is my pick at 15/8 with Paddy Power.

May’s Final Act Could be a Few Weeks Away

May has, of course, been on the verge of losing her job for nearly two years. Coral offer 8/13 to leave in 2019, despite being safe from a Tory leadership challenge until late December.

The assumption built into those odds is that she will go very soon after Brexit is completed. Nobody wants her to lead the wider future trade negotiations with the EU - the role for which her rivals have been waiting and positioning for. In the meantime, every day presents more peril.

In the weeks ahead, May must either pass a deal that is deeply unpopular with her party, deliver a no deal Brexit, or delay it. None are desirable and the latter would surely be the final straw.

It is at these crisis moments that a politician needs allies. It is hard to see who May has left. In two years, she has lost more Cabinet ministers than the Major, Brown and Cameron governments combined. Unless passing her deal and suddenly transforming public opinion about the deed, it is hard to see what purpose she would serve to the party much longer after June.

The hard leg of our treble is Corbyn. The Labour leader is 7/4 with William Hill to go this year and that price isn’t especially appealing. It may seem amid all the negative coverage, splits and diabolical poll ratings that he is on borrowed time but his party doesn’t generally work that way.

Labour members are pretty loyal to their leaders. When Gordon Brown looked an election loser in the run-up to 2010, rivals swerved a challenge because they expected the members to back him. When Owen Smith challenged Corbyn in 2016, he was thrashed.


Check Out: Leo Vegas Sports for latest odds, free bets and welcome bonus.


A Heavyweight Challenge Could Threaten Corbyn

Now, that doesn’t mean he is invincible with the membership. Smith was virtually unknown and ran an awful campaign, yet still got a respectable 38%. Who can say how a party heavyweight, laying out a clear, alternative direction for the party, would have fared then? Let alone now, under different conditions.

It isn’t clear that Labour’s membership is quite as enormous or active as then, nor Corbyn as popular. His lack of leadership over Brexit has particularly alienated many a natural supporter. Meanwhile the polling remains crystal clear - Corbyn is a drag on the party. Recent surveys including TIG implied that, by changing leader, Labour would turn electoral defeat into victory.

However it is hard to see internal opponents directly challenging him, having bottled it previously. The TIG defectors preferred to walk away and that deepened the wedge between MPs and grassroots. Any move would be seen as a challenge to his socialist agenda and grassroots movement.

While Tom Watson is prepared to use his own mandate as deputy leader to challenge Corbyn on policy, I don’t envisage a divisive challenge. If Labour are to change leader before the next election, it will probably be because he has been persuaded to step aside. Plausible but there is no indication.

One way Corbyn could be removed quickly is defeat after a general election and that is highly possible within our 2019 timeframe. If May doesn’t call one imminently to resolve Brexit, as some reports have suggested, there is every chance her replacement does so later in the year. Like her in 2017, they would see a rare opportunity to destroy Labour, especially if TIG are around and competitive.

I’m not convinced or even predicting Corbyn will go in 2019 but, given the likelihood of Cable and May both leaving, 6/1 about the treble with Ladbrokes is worth a punt. Much stranger things have happened and events can move very fast.

Recommended Betting Sites

shield of trust Secure trusted partners Trusted star verified Verified
  1. 100% Welcome Bonus up to £50 Promo Code: TONY50

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering. Visit Site
  2. Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus

  3. Bet £10 Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply Visit Site
  4. Get up to £100 in Free Bets + up to 100% in Boosts

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, New customers only. Deposit + bet £20-£100. Must Deposit £50 and opt in for marketing preferences for Boosts. Boosts credited 24 hours after deposit. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleware.org Visit Site
  5. Open Account Offer - Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365

  6. Bet £10, Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.System bets no eligible. Click to see full T&Cs Visit Site
  7. EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply Visit Site
  8. 50% Deposit Bonus up to £100 Promo Code: FBWELS

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New UK customers only; 6x wager requirement with 90 day expiry; Only sports bets contribute to wagering; Min. 2 selections at 1.4 min odds per selection; Max £100 per bet. 18+. T&C's Apply. Please bet responsibly. begambleaware.org Visit Site
  9. Bet £20, Get £10

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org Visit Site
  10. Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets

    18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Qualifying bet must be min odds of 1/2 and cannot be placed in-play or cashed out. E.g. Place a £10bet at minimum odds of 1/2. When that bet has been settled, you will be given a free £5 fixed odds bet to use that day. New customers only. See full Ts&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware Visit Site
alert Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of the UK's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully UK licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.
alert Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of the UK's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully UK licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.

Betting Strategy Articles

DISCLAIMER: Online Wagering is illegal in some Jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to check your local regulations before playing online. GDC Media Ltd takes no responsibility for your actions.
© 2011-2021 GDC Media Limited. All Rights Reserved. Gambling.com is a registered trademark of GDC Media Limited.
Terms and Conditions  |   Privacy Policy

Asset 4 Android GET IT ON facebook Download_on_the_App_Store_Badge_US-UK_RGB_blk_4SVG_092917 twitter
×