New South Wales State Election Betting Pitches Crushing ALP Victory
Betting sites that were previously dead-set on the Labor party winning a crushing victory in the New South Wales election have begun tweaking their odds in reaction to polling data that suggests March’s vote will be a tighter contest than expected.
The Australian Labor Party (ALP) has been leading in the polls for months and leader Chris Minns is expected to become the state premier when voters head to the ballot boxes on March 25. It would end a 12-year reign for the Lib/Nats in NSW.
Such was the poll lead in the two-party preferred choice between Minns and Dominic Perrottet earlier this year that most bookmakers had given Labor an 88% chance of winning the election.
A Labor victory would reflect the party’s triumph in last year’s federal election, and the Victorian state election back in November.
But with less than a month before the vote, there are signs from pollsters that this election could be closer than previously expected.
And most bookies have been quick to take note by adjusting their odds on who will claim the most seats in New South Wales.
New South Wales State Election Odds
The latest NSW odds reflect what’s happening in the polls. A recent Newspoll survey found primary support for Labor is now at 36%, while the Coalition has a 37% backing.
Of course, the secondary vote is what counts the most here, and Labor’s two-party preferred vote lead is now as narrow as 52-48.
It means neither party would be able to secure the 47 seats needed to form a majority government.
Political betting sites were the first to adjust their markets upon this polling data. It’s seen Labor move from 1.14 favourites in January to a new price of 1.20.
This still suggests an 83% probability of them winning the election – but doesn’t take into account whether it will be a majority or minority victory.
The Coalition, meanwhile, has seen its price come down from 3.75 in January to a new fix of 3.25.
The drop gives Perrottet hope that his party may be able to pull off a sensational shock in the polls and remain in government past March.
NSW Election Issues
The NSW election is looming and the Coalition may run out of time to fully turn this tide around.
Perrottet himself appears to be thriving under the pressure. He enjoys a double-digit lead over Minns in the “preferred premier” stakes, and also has a positive net approval rating that is hard to come by in politics these days.
However, one thing Perrottet cannot affect is people’s desire for change. Australia has already backed Labor in two big elections over the past 12 months and looks likely to do so again.
The Nazi scandal appears to have confirmed the predictions of pollsters and bookmakers that New South Wales is yearning for a change in government.
A total of 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly (the lower chamber of the parliament) are up for grabs in this election, while 21 of the 42 seats in the Council (upper chamber) will also be voted on.
Labor needs 10 seats more than what it currently boasts to hit the magic 47 mark in the Legislative Assembly and secure an ALP victory for the first time in over a decade.
To do this, they’re pushing hard on the cost of living crisis. A recent Sydney Morning Herald survey found 93% of voters mark rising prices as their biggest concern. It comes as inflation hit 7.8% last year.
A Labor state government can’t necessarily do much about inflation but Minns will hope to capture the imagination of voters with stamp duty relief for first-time buyers, bring in social housing construction, and reduce the cost of toll roads.
Meanwhile, Perrottet has pledged to increase support for paying energy bills, slashing costs by $250 if the Liberals/Nationals get re-elected.
Minns has poured scorn on the offer, claiming it’s nothing more than a “cash splash”, but Labor is yet to offer a similar option.
Right now, it appears as though Labor can simply stay the course and keep their fingers crossed for a majority victory.
Slip to minority rule and that would probably be considered a failure. The polls and odds are tightening, but perhaps not enough to flip this result.
But the bookies are keeping note and won’t want to miss an opportunity to change their odds again.
The next two weeks of the campaign will decide whether or not they need to.
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